The global security situation is coming to a head. NATO countries are massively increasing their defense spending, while at the same time dependence on raw materials from geopolitically unstable regions such as China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia is considered a serious weakness. Around 90% of the global tungsten supply of around 100,000 tons is currently controlled directly or indirectly by Chinese companies. Given Chinese and Western sanctions, one thing is clear: defense production cannot rely on hostile supply chains forever.

The US currently requires around 10,000 tons of tungsten annually to meet its defense and high-tech needs. Almonty (TSX:AII) currently supplies around 900 tons from Portugal, but with the Sangdong mine in South Korea nearing completion, it is aiming for 4,000 tons per year in the medium term – with the option of doubling production in the short term. These figures underline Almonty’s potential to become a critical supply lifeline for the West. Dependence on the East could be reversed – with Almonty as the key player. The Company is currently relocating its headquarters from Canada to the US – a strategic move that aligns with plans for a NASDAQ listing. With the move to one of the world’s most liquid stock exchanges, the stock will likely gain significantly in visibility and trading volume.

Added to this situation is the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. US President Donald Trump is once again talking about modernizing the US military and the need to stand firm against Russia and other powers. Even peace efforts with Putin have so far had no lasting effect. This continues to drive Western nations to invest in security, thus fueling demand for tungsten.

However, it is not just military technology that requires this metal. Tungsten is used in energy technology, aviation, medical technology, and even in smartphones such as the iPhone – for example, in vibration components. Demand is growing across many sectors. The problem: New tungsten projects often fail due to environmental regulations, permits, or lack of financing. This is where Almonty stands out: The projects have been approved, the infrastructure is in place, the demand is there, and the geopolitical momentum is on their side.

Almonty Industries is on the verge of a breakthrough. CEO and major shareholder Lewis Black leads the Company with a clear focus on investor interests. After around ten years of development work in South Korea, the Sangdong mine is about to start production – in the midst of a geopolitical environment that is causing demand for Western-controlled tungsten sources to escalate.

Analysts see enormous potential: Sphene Capital recently raised its price target from CAD 5.20 to CAD 5.40 – more than 100% price potential from the current level of CAD 2.60. However, anyone who understands the dynamics of this market knows that if the NASDAQ listing is successful and panic over supply security continues to rise, even this price target is only a stopgap. Tungsten is becoming the strategic currency of the future – and Almonty is set to be a game changer and takeover candidate.

Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a “Transaction”). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.

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A key U.S. federal court has recently ruled the Trump admin’s wide-sweeping tariffs were invalid, given the President’s myriad actions weren’t protected by emergency power laws enacted by Trump.

Laws that he believed – or perhaps not – did allow him to do such a thing.

But here, the situation is interesting because Trump doesn’t really have any actual economic or social policies apart from (seemingly unending) tariffs.

So really, his whole entire political deal has just been knocked off its feet. For now.

Sure, he’s against anything “woke,” but that seems to reflect a global fascination with the kinds of issues once reserved for first-year university students, and doesn’t really possess anything necessarily Trumpian in itself. Conservative backlashes are, once you look back, older than the steam engine.

What is almost definite: Right now, there are lawyers in some suite somewhere in the White House, or perhaps somewhere offside a golf course, burning the midnight oil as I write this.

As of Thursday afternoon, when it comes to a response from the White House, it’s eerily quiet.

The big question is: Will the American President abide by this ruling?

That’s unfortunately a decent question, given he’s already shown a flagrant enthusiasm for ignoring court requests to return deported immigrants, which unfortunately, seems to be getting swept under the rug by constant economic news.

(Maybe that’s the point.)

News of the court’s decision swept across the globe on Thursday, Australian time, and that’s not surprising, given that there is a poetic element to Trump being stopped by his own country.

NASDAQ futures were up +2% at 3pm on Thursday; the S&P500 is set to pop +1.5%.

Maybe most telling is CME Group’s futures product for the Russell 2000 smallcap index shows it’s set to jump +2.6% – a sign, perhaps, that smaller investors are bullish; not just algos and bankers.

It doesn’t take a psychologist to realise Trump, the human being, isn’t going to be enjoying this hit the news. It also doesn’t take a savant to realise any kind of flagrant subversion of the US legal system will probably send futures back in the other direction.

It’s also unfortunate timing for Donny, as a trade court effectively ruled his April 2 tariff regime illegal, within the same week a new acronym has started doing the rounds – ‘Trump Always Chickens Out,’ or TACO. One brave journalist asked him about that new nickname, and copped a spray for it.

HotCopper editor Isaac McIntyre and I discussed TACO and Trump’s latest stumblings in this week’s HotCopper Wire podcast. As of 3.30pm AEST, Trump hadn’t come out swinging on Truth Social, or Twitter.

There, his last post was resharing the thoughts of an analyst who really wants the Fed to cut rates. Make of that what you will.

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Blockbuster IPOs, EV batteries – you’d be forgiven for thinking we’ve returned to 2021.

In that light, if one zooms out and considers the last few years, it’s perhaps surprising that we’re seeing CATL – a familiar name among commodity analysts during the lithium boom of the early 2020s – stage such a feat.

It comes after years of lithium price pressure, a litany of lithium projects going bust around the world, and a general cooling-off of the EV battery thematic made particularly chilly by the lapsing of key EV rebates across developed economies.

Yet, CATL managed to surge 16% on its debut day (though, has since lost momentum).

The good news is that it’s a bullish signal for IPO markets generally, which still remain, in a word, unexciting. The big story there is of global economies’ hiking of interest rates in the post-COVID years.

I’ve said before that when a central bank raises interest rates, it’s basically a kind of economic chemotherapy – many other ‘bodily’ functions are affected. So it has been with Initial Public Offerings in an environment where it has been notoriously difficult to raise capital (unless you’re in the business of data centres).

But there’s another angle to CATL’s IPO – the fact that it happened in Hong Kong, and not on Wall Street.

Really, CATL’s Hong Kong IPO is itself the consequence of geopolitical macro.

From the company’s POV, it wouldn’t make much sense to list on Wall Street, seeing as U.S. officials (read: Trump) have been repeatedly talking about ejecting major Chinese companies from American indexes.

Last month, analysts predicted that the USA’s hostile stance towards large publicly listed Chinese companies could end up a boon for Hong Kong’s IPO market.

And after China’s last few years of economic strife – the country in 2024 stopped reporting youth unemployment – that’s probably a happy silver lining.

Especially seeing as at one point many trading companies were actually leaving Hong Kong over concerns ultimately boiling down to China’s increased authority over the jurisdiction across the last decade.

(Of course, CATL isn’t a Western company.)

But all of this ignores a bigger question – whether or not the CATL IPO, or more specifically, its valuation, is based on rationality.

Large IPOs will always attract the attention of the world’s investment banks, who all agree with each other on high valuations and thereby create that reality. That’s how you end up with situations like Guzman Y Gomez listing at $30/sh – a move which caused many to scratch their heads when it graced the bourse in 2024.

Some commentators have pondered whether CATL is simply overvalued – also worth noting is that retail investors swarmed into the stock, but that’s not particularly unusual. It may, though, explain the dissipation of excitement over the last five days visible on CATL’s share price chart (for its Hong Kong listing).

Then again, it’s inaccurate to think of CATL as a lithium battery company: It’s got far more than that going on.

CATL has a focus on next-gen batteries like those that use sodium; it enjoys major contracts with giants like LG; it supplies batteries to BMW, Volkswagen, and Tesla; and it has a decent presence in Europe, which could insulate it somewhat from geopolitical volatility.

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Time will tell. What is clear is that Hong Kong’s IPO market is far more interesting right now than that of the ASX.

Don’t even look at the upcoming floats webpage, it’s just depressing.

So, for Australians, the biggest question might be an even simpler one here: Whether or not CATL’s mid-2025 success inspires any surging confidence in the minds of others seeking to publicly list in Australia.

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Australia’s relatively cheap valuations compared to those on the S&P500; the fact we’re a country of dividend assets and most importantly that we’re probably not going to suffer from too many U.S. tariff shocks are all coming together as a basket of hope for international investors looking to reallocate capital out of Wall Street.

So far – and this is a bit of a wishy-washy statement given how much smaller the ASX is compared to Wall Street in terms of total listings; especially after COVID-19 – the ASX is actually outperforming Wall Street YTD.

After smashing record high after record high all last year largely due to AI-driven Mag 7 outperformance, it’s perhaps not surprising to see a pullback in the U.S.

Without doubt, however, losses have been magnified by Trump’s tariff regime.

(That’s all beside the point though, right now.)

And, right now, it looks like the U.S. has a little more to worry about.

As of 1pm Sydney time on Friday, gold has hit a new all-time record high as investors appear to be ditching the U.S. dollar and moving into gold.

And compare that to the one-month gold price chart:

For now, U.S. outflows coming to Australia (that aren’t going into gold) would probably be good news for Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), the ASX’s largest constituent, as well as BHP Group (ASX:BHP) – as long as iron ore prices hold up in the latter example.

(It’s already thought by some that outflows from the Chinese stock markets into Australia were one of the key reasons that kept CBA running all through 2024, despite myriad analysts rating the stock a sell.)

That isn’t a given. Iron ore prices hit US$90/tn earlier this week as the reality of a new U.S.-China Trade War sunk in; it’s a debated point by many analysts whether iron ore prices of ~US$100/tn in Singapore are fundamentally supported.

So it goes without saying much could change, and as I wrote earlier this week, we’re far more closely linked to China than the U.S. economically. You only need to look at our currency to see proof of that.

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Our currency, of course, also offers an attractive prospect to those still buying in U.S. dollars – put simply, high net worth investors can get more bang for their buck buying shares in AUD than they could at home.

Assuming, of course, some new calamity doesn’t come out of China.

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The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Back then, protectionist policies triggered a global trade war, deepened the Great Depression, and led to nearly a decade of stagnant stock market growth. Long-term investors were left watching their portfolios go nowhere for years. So, are we heading down the same path?

And more importantly, is it time to rethink your investment strategy?

History offers some clear warning signs.

The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 slapped higher tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods. The world retaliated, trade collapsed, and what started as a financial crisis spiralled into a prolonged economic disaster.

The Dow Jones paid the price, failing to break its 1937 high until 1946.

Why? Because slowing global trade creates weaker economic conditions, and markets have always thrived on growth – not stagnation.

Fast forward to Trump’s first presidency in 2018, when tariffs were again the weapon of choice. The result? The Dow Jones found itself stuck in a sideways grind around 25,000 for over four years. The pattern is clear – tariffs slow down future stock gains. So, what’s your plan to navigate what could be another era of sluggish returns?

The old buy-and-hold strategy might not be your best bet in the years ahead. Instead, a more active approach could be the key. And before you think this requires a PhD in rocket science, think again. A few simple rules and the right education can help you ride the market’s upswings while sidestepping inevitable downturns.

If history is about to repeat itself, wouldn’t you rather be prepared?

The best-performing sectors include Communication Services up over on1%, followed by Utilities and Healthcare, both up under half a percent. The worst-performing sectors in Week 14 include Materials and Energy, both down over 5%, followed by Information Technology, down over 2%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, up over 5%. followed by Commonwealth Bank, up over 3%, and Coles, up over 2%.

The worst-performing stocks include Pilbara Minerals, down over 21%, followed by Mineral Resources, down over 16%, and IGO Limited, down over 15%.

Sellers took control this week, driving the All-Ordinaries Index down more than 2.5% on Trump’s announcement of global reciprocal tariffs.

Right now, any negative news is shaking investor confidence, particularly among institutional players, seeing the index swinging like a yoyo.

But is there a silver lining hidden in plain sight? Let’s break it down.

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Despite heightened volatility and global uncertainty, the All Ords has yet to break its March 14 low. With the level of selling pressure, you’d expect that low to have been taken out by now to resume the downtrend.

But it hasn’t – and that’s a crucial signal.

If the index can hold above 7,949.90 despite the current turmoil, it would suggest that a major low is in place and that the market is setting up for an upward move towards the 8,400 level.

However, if sellers push and close the index below 7,949.90, we could see further short-term indecision before support forms over the next couple of months. A decisive break below 7,800 would open the door to a deeper pullback toward 7,400, although this remains the less likely scenario.

Regardless of the broader market swings, there are still standout stocks bucking the trend. The key is digging in and finding those outlier opportunities.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.

Rightly so, this is what markets are currently watching. Except that Trump has threatened to bomb Iran in the last 12 hours, which is perhaps less rattling than it would be if markets weren’t already so rattled.

Another bloodbath on Wall Street overnight Friday (Oz time) has informed a bloody Monday for Australia – in fact, in ’25, the ASX has had its worst Q1 since back in COVID-19.

The Friday sell-off on Wall Street was informed by renewed tariff anxiety as Trump started talking about auto tariffs late Week 13 – surely, Elon Musk’s pole position in the Trump-buddy-ecosystem is part of the problem with that one – but U.S. inflation data didn’t really help things either.

Core U.S. PCE inflation came in one tick higher than expected at 0.4% growth. The timeframe isn’t really important here. It’s usually the kind of thing that would be ignored by markets, or that would have been true in H2 of CY24, except perhaps for uber-bears.

But we aren’t in the realm of what is “usual.” (Probably evidenced by the fact Trump has threatened to bomb Iran.)

We are, ignoring this latest threat to certainty, in a realm of flip-flop tariff threats that seem to change hourly. And after more than a month of this being the quo day after day, it’s my suspicion the market has stopped watching the news and is instead waiting for April 2.

Combine that and a PCE core inflation beat, even if it’s just one pip, and it’s all too much.

So perhaps that’s why the market appears to have missed the rather worrying point – and I’ll admit here perhaps this article could come across as panicbait – that there’s a new geopolitical risk to consider.

But Trump’s threats to Iran (if he goes ahead with them) threaten to throw a more traditional, non-tariff-related inflationary risk into the works.

Long story short: An attack on Iran would be guaranteed to push up the price of Brent Crude oil, the international benchmark that ultimately informs the price of fuel at the servo worldwide. (America has its own oil benchmark: The West Texas Intermediate.)

So why would an attack on Iran do that?

In truth, there’s no real fundamental reason supporting it anymore. But the entire market seems to have absorbed the historical memory of the 1970s Iranian oil crisis when Iran was able to squeeze the American consumer by restricting oil exports.

That was, of course, when Iran was a bigger player in the global oil game. The world’s largest producer is now the USA. Even bigger than Saudi Arabia.

But that reality hasn’t quite yet sunk into the contemporary market zeitgeist of 2025. This has been evidenced clearly in recent history – when Israel started bombing its neighbours throughout last year, the Brent price would jump as surely as the sun rose.

Any breakout of conflict in the Middle East is often followed by a jump in fuel prices, even if fleeting. But given we’re talking about an unpredictable Trump Administration, given we’re talking about Iran’s debated-but-probable efforts to design its own nukes, and given an already sensitive and fragile market – one could expect, perhaps, an exaggerated effect.

Even despite the fact the U.S. is still the world’s largest producer.

And how could a higher oil price push up inflation? That’s easier to answer.

Trucks, ships, planes, and the cost of driving the kids to school before heading off to work.

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The 36-point questionnaire was sent in mid-March to researchers whose projects – across a range of disciplines, including the medical and physical sciences, foreign aid, and defence – involve collaboration with U.S. scholars and institutions.

Several topics broached in the document refer to Donald Trump’s broad policy of pushing back against what he refers to as ‘woke ideology’ – as manifested in his executive orders recognising only two genders, and banning programs and grants connected to DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion).

To wit, the questionnaire asked whether the target research related to DEI, if it complied with Trump’s two-gender policy, and whether its participants were receiving funding from Russia, Cuba, China, or Iran.

While scholars were often asked to explain their research, especially in connection with funding, this new line of questioning hasn’t been broached before – and certainly not in this way, University of Sydney international relations expert Dr Stuart Rollo told HotCopper after the questionnaire was sent out.

“The questionnaire is totally unprecedented, as far as I am aware,” he explained.

“As part of the process of applying for grants from American government [and other] institutions, applicants will often be asked to describe how their project advances gender equity, principles of environmental sustainability, and things of that nature.”

“But,” he continued, “I have never seen a retroactive questionnaire with such directly politicised conditions applied broadly across institutions.”

While funding was sometimes restricted for projects involving partners from countries like China, Iran, or Russia, Mr Rollo explained, this questionnaire’s direct reference was quite unusual. “Nothing of such a sweeping and immediate nature” has been seen before.

Given the United States is Australia’s biggest research partner – with our universities receiving $400 million in funding from the U.S. government in 2024 – it is important that we figure out where the Trump administration is going with this, and how Australian institutions should position themselves.

While the President’s culture war rhetoric is not new, nor unexpected, Dr Rollo says it’s important to remember much of the sentiment underpinning it was supported by people both in the States and Australia.

“The reality is many regular people in Australia and the States do see universities and other ‘elite’ institutions as embodying a sort of vanguard progressive politics that they feel is out of step with the values of society more broadly,” he said.

“The Trump administration is using this sentiment to push a much more radical policy.”

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The starting point of all this, he added, was the belief – among Trump and loyalists such as Steve Bannon and Elon Musk – that universities, media, and the public service are parts of a “permanent bureaucracy” (or “deep state”) influencing how societies develop, outside of simple electoral politics.

“DOGE, cuts to foreign aid, countering ‘woke’ education etcetera is not simply about prosecuting a conservative vs progressive culture war it is about the executive branch of the US government waging all-out war on a range of other institutions of power in our society that tend to balance executive power out,” Dr Rollo said.

He added: “This extends to the judiciary and many other fields as well.”

The questionnaire also says something about how Trump and his gov’t are planning to interact with the rest of the world and its institutions: A tendency on display during his tumultuous meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and in the administration’s proposal to secure critical minerals in that country.

“The Trump coalition has a radical view for the future of the United States and the structure of the global order,” Dr Rollo said.

“It’s about moving away from a complex system of institutions and alliances that operate under American leadership – sometimes seen as the ‘American Empire’ a.k.a. the ‘rules-based order’) towards a system of exploitative hegemony, where the U.S. relies much more on military strength, coercion, and other ‘sticks’ rather than ‘carrots’ to ensure the compliance of weaker states and secure as much of the global economic pie for itself as possible.”

When it came to initiatives such as this strange new questionnaire – and the potential threat to research funding which it represents – Dr Rollo said it was unlikely to benefit the United States in the long term.

“As far as funding to Australian institutions goes, the Trump administration seems to have a very unsophisticated understanding of American soft power,” he said.

‘They are doing a great deal of damage in a very short time to a set of arrangements that, whether you agree with them in terms of cultural values, serve to promote American national interests and influence here and elsewhere around the world.”

Depending on the discipline, there were swathes of academic research that would likely be impacted by Trump’s approach. “It is likely to reshape research in the social and political sciences a fair bit, perhaps public health too, but not a great deal in the hard sciences, computing etcetera,” Dr Rollo added.

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The company recently received shareholder approval to redomicile from Canada to the United States, signalling a major strategic shift.

Then last week, Almonty announced a new collaboration with American Defense International, ADI. And even more recently in Week 13, the company welcomed U.S. General Gustave F. Perna, to its board of directors; a significant move that has turned quite a few heads in the defense and resource sectors.

With trade picking up and tungsten’s price climbing, there’s a lot to talk about.

Lyndsay Malchuk with Stockhouse Publishing recently sat down with Lewis Black, CEO of Almonty to discuss all of these riveting developments.

Lyndsay: Why don’t we actually start with the company’s latest announcements and the growing interest from the defense sector. I think the big question here stands as, is Almonty still purely a resource company or are we now looking at the beginnings of a defense focused enterprise?

Lewis: I’ve done this a long time. I’m the last man standing I’ve been very successful in the tungsten space. Our mines make money and traditionally I was the primary source outside of China and Russia and North Korea for my customers who were best known for building, you know, cars and planes and medical and you know, really making an impact on the planet. But I found myself in the last eight months now being dragged into a geopolitical tug of war that doesn’t just include the US and China, but also you’ve got to throw in the EU into the mix because tungsten is the primary metal for all hardware munitions and armor. And of course, if you have any kind of military program, you of course require munitions and armor. And this is uncharted waters for us as a company and for our sector because now tungsten is no longer commercially desirable as much as it is national security desirable. And given we are the only party in town, we are trying to navigate through lots of people who are being very nice to us right now. But at some point you’re going to have to say no to somebody, and on that basis, you don’t know what their response is going to be. So, in answer to your question in a short answer, we are an involuntary defense stock now.

Lyndsay: There seems to be a significant interest from the United States in securing future tungsten supplies, especially with that partnership with ADI and the addition of General Perna. So do you believe this is raising concerns or even pressure among other nations, particularly in Europe then?

Lewis: I think absolutely. And I mean, one of the reasons we’ve engaged ADI, which is the US’s largest defense lobbyist, and they only do one other mine, which is Mountain Pass. Everyone else in their portfolio of nearly a hundred companies are the biggest defense contractors in the United States. And with General Perna, we have another announcement coming as well shortly to add to that team is because we are trying to fully understand how to correctly integrate into this nexus of defense in the US it’s an extremely complex logistical area and it has been impressed upon us within the United States that we find ways to seamlessly integrate, and it’s much easier to use experts who know really how to navigate through it than trying to do it on our own. As for the EU, yes, the EU are also looking quite anxiously.

And so I suppose in a perfect world, I would like to feel that the output from our Korean project is going to amply provide for the US defense space and our project in Portugal and Spain later on when it’s opened, we’ll provide a defense solution in Europe. And I mean, that’s perfect thinking. That’s on the basis that everybody remains calm and friends. But my initial approach is to follow the direction that’s being intimated to me, to find ways to seamlessly integrate into this. And as I said, Mountain Pass has done it very well. And we’re very fortunate that ADI chose to take us on as only their second line.

Lyndsay: Well, have you seen any early reactions from all of this?

Lewis: From the, the, the US government? Next week I have to go to Washington again. I don’t want to talk too much about all the things that we’re up to because well, I don’t want to start checking under my car every time I sort of leak the house. But I think what we are doing is really important. I mean, to me, despite my accent, actually am American, it’s important to me. And I know in this day and age, it’s unfashionable to do something for the right reason. I know it’s just not considered to be a great idea, but I’m a shareholder first and foremost, I’m seeing great value added to the business because of the fact that we are now a defense stock.

And on top of that, we’re going to do something really important. We are going to provide a solution, a very short term solution, because we are opening in two to three months for a defense dose. And we can provide the same for Europe as well. So, you know, it feels good that we see an accretion of value and we also see that we’re doing something for the right reason, not just, for the free market. We’re doing something I think important and I want to make sure I do it right.

Lyndsay: So what we really want to know is what the actual sentiment is in the tungsten market right now with China’s export restrictions, making those headlines. What are you hearing, what are you experiencing right now within the industry?

Lewis: Well, that’s very interesting. It’s really a kind of a catch-22, the kind of companies that consume tungsten, a very large corporations, and they’re involved in many different areas of the economy, both in their domestic environment and internationally. If you acknowledge publicly that you have a problem, it’s weakness and it tells a competitor potentially with more inventory than you, that your market share can be attacked. So publicly, everything is fine. Nothing to see here. We’re all good. I know that the CCP has restricted the export of tungsten, but not to me, I’ve been buying there for 25 years. Doesn’t count to me. Everyone else. But I went to the wedding anniversary of my suppliers. My children are named after them. And then privately you have an interesting situation.

Privately you have two ways you can go. One, you can tell yourself that everything’s going to be okay. This is just a Trump blip. It’s all going to pass any minute now, you know, everyone’s going to be friends and it’ll be business as usual. And then you can sleep well at night, or you can go into a kind of a very discreet panic because you don’t have a plan B because there no plan B. So it’s one thing if there was a plan B and you knew that a plan B should have existed, but you chose to feed your addiction to the cheap and readily available material from a wonderful supplier, which was China, which is China or has been China. They always had inventory. They worked seven days a week, they didn’t break for summer holidays. If you needed something, they put it on a boat and they even put maybe a small gift in there, a bottle of wine.

And everybody was happy because it was an easy addiction to take. And now that you are looking at the fact that maybe your dealer is not perhaps as available as you would like, you don’t have an alternative source. So in my customers publicly, everyone’s called privately, who knows, some are telling themselves everything will be all right on the night and others have started drinking. But either way, this problem doesn’t go away. Now China has put into a mechanism with these export permits regarding dual use, which is military use, which pretty much covers every customer I have, even if they’re not directly involved with the military, they may supply braking parts for armored vehicles that counts under Chinese rules. So I think China has a mechanism to basically say no tungsten for you if they so choose, and they’ll use our own rules, WTO rules against us. And this must be a terrifying predicaments that some of the biggest corporations on the planet now find themselves in. They got rich from cheap raw materials, and now the source of those raw materials are saying, you know what? You’re not treating us the way we want to be treated, so no more for you. And I think this is outside of my pay grade, but this is not easy for them to be honest.

Lyndsay: So how is that shaping the outlook for producers like Almonty then?

Lewis: We’ve got a lot more friends than we used to, that’s for sure. Until we don’t, because we’re have to say no to somebody at some point. I think the people who got behind us, like the Plansee Group who really supported us from years ago they would say by judgment, some would say by luck. But they called this many years ago, and they gave us an opportunity to build the world’s largest tungsten mine. And they were instrumental in us being able to convince KfW IPEX the premier, tier one project finance lender in the world to back us. And I think for us, geopolitics is a great positive, but there’s also a negative side. And I think it’s always important to look at that negative side. If my customers are starved to death, who do I sell to?

And I think China is a fierce competitor now for Western concentrate. They’re about to change a regulation in China to allow them to also feed from Western scrap the approach now rather than the collapse the price that they did in lithium or rare earths, which is to drive capital out of our sector is in fact to starve my customers from feed. And so it’s great for us. It almost certainly means that we are going to become irresistible to multiple suitors just for their survival. But it’s also quite terrifying that we’ve got ourselves into a place where we don’t have a plan B. And even with Trump’s announcement to develop domestic resources quicker, it takes years. I mean, whether we like it or not, this is not a widget factory. This is a mine. There’s a real process here that you have to respect and follow to build into democracy.

Lyndsay: We’ve reported a lot on one of your projects, the Sangdong Mine is receiving a great deal of attention around the globe and is expected to enter into production in 2025. I mean, the demand is obviously there and you mentioned maybe two to three months. So when exactly do you project actual production to begin from that?

Lewis: I’m an operator. You never want to jinx it. Two to three months you’ll see material coming out of there. And then 12 months after that, you’ll see phase two come online. So phase two is a doubling of our output. A lot of the work for phase two has already been done in phase one. So it’s something we show KfW that you could actually build something bigger for the same money because the cost of grinding circuits is negligible. The difference between 1.2 million tons a year and 640,000 thousand tons a year is pretty much the same. So it took a while to get them over that hurdle because they’ve never actually financed a project that actually was built for a bigger capacity for the same money. But then we’ve always been a bit unorthodox in Almonty.

We’ve always been very nimble. We’ve stayed away from the funds and the traditional ways. We have one of the highest liquidities of a junior in Canada now. We are quoted by every tier one publication. We have guys like ADI and General Perna who are way above our pay grade, you know, who are happily joining us because we are unorthodox. And that’s why we’ve been successful. And I think one of the things I say to everybody, whether people like it or not, and I hate to blow my own trumpet, but I’m quite unique in the junior mining space because I’m a shareholder first and foremost, I put millions of dollars of my own money into this. And so when I get out of bed, I’m getting out of bed as a shareholder. And that’s why our stock has responded so well.

It’s why we have this liquidity, because I’m first and foremost a retail guy. That’s what I am. I mean, yes, I run the company because, well, someone had to do it and I care enough to keep the value. I mean, someone said to me earlier, what they found unique about Almonty was that we did an IPO what, more than 10 years ago in the TSX. And we still have those same shareholders, and they’re all in the money. I mean, normally with juniors 10 years in, you’ve burned through three or four sets of shareholders, but our guys are still there and they’re in the money, which is unheard of. So that’s, I think, a very long-winded answer to your question.

Lyndsay: What about politically speaking? You said that it is a bit of a benefit, but tell us the biggest challenges you’re facing right now and what Almonty is doing to navigate through the never ending moving targets right now.

Lewis: That’s why we’re trying to bring ADI in. We bring ADI in and general Perna to help us and the contacts and that we’re trying to navigate through it. I don’t pick aside in terms of, well, of course, obviously North Korea and China, you know, it’s a bit different. But ultimately, I’m trying to make sure that the defense sectors in the EU and the US have what they need if they want it.

I’m, I’m putting forward a solution that won’t require taxpayer money or risk. I have it, it’s available, it’s not tied to off takes and we’re just trying to find the best mechanism to ensure the distribution of that material to the people that it needs to get to. And this is uncharted waters. I’m going to do it slowly and methodically and correctly, but my plan is that we have a solution for these defense sectors in these territories. We don’t require 10 years to do it. It’s almost instantaneous. And this way it ensures that my legacy when I’m taken out in my pine box at one point in the future is that we at least provided an option for national security defense for a country that I’m a part of in America and the EU where we’ve operated for 136 years in Portugal.

Almonty last traded at $2.35 through this morning.

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Speaking to a packed crowd at the International Investment Forum, the company’s CEO, Lewis Black gave details on their flagship project, the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which was once the world’s largest tungsten mine.

(Almonty also operates the Panasqueira mine in Portugal and Valtreixal in Spain.)

The ‘International Investment Forum’ offers insights into investment trends and strategies, featuring perspectives from top executives and managers across diverse industries worldwide.

You can see the entirety of his talk on YouTube here.

This mine, once the world’s largest tungsten mine, was closed in 1993 but has since been revitalized by Almonty. The company also operates one of Asia’s largest molybdenum mines, adjacent to the Sangdong tungsten mine.

Almonty’s share price has seen significant growth over the past 24 months, driven largely by geopolitical factors. AII’s stock value has increased nearly 194 per cent since March 2024. The company’s liquidity has also increased substantially, positioning it well ahead of its competitors in the tungsten sector. This growth is not solely due to recent geopolitical events but is the result of a long-term strategy and consistent performance.

Almonty boasts a diverse shareholder base, having resisted the temptation to rely on a single large investor. Instead, the company has maintained a broad base of long-standing shareholders, many of whom have seen their investments more than double since the company’s IPO. This approach has helped preserve shareholder value and maintain financial stability.

Almonty has received unprecedented support from multiple governments, including direct investments in land and infrastructure from the Korean government. This level of government involvement underscores the strategic importance of Almonty’s projects. The company has also secured a loan from the German State Bank, guaranteed by the Austrian finance ministry, highlighting the confidence in Almonty’s operations.

Almonty has received unprecedented support from multiple governments, including direct investments in land and infrastructure from the Korean government. This level of government involvement underscores the strategic importance of Almonty’s projects.

The company has also secured a loan from the German State Bank, guaranteed by the Austrian finance ministry, highlighting the confidence in Almonty’s operations.

Almonty stands out in the tungsten market by receiving premium prices for its products, a distinction not shared by its competitors. This is due to the reliability, consistency, and desirability of Almonty’s products. The company also secures floor prices on its larger contracts, protecting it from adverse price fluctuations.

Almonty’s price has shown strong performance, driven by more than just geopolitical factors. The company’s consistent focus on value and independence has attracted significant support from investors. Almonty is set to become the only U.S. company currently producing tungsten, further enhancing its market position.

Almonty’s management has decades of experience in operating tungsten mines, consistently turning around projects and generating profits. The company’s low turnover of senior and mid-level staff reflects a stable and committed workforce. Management’s direct investment in the company aligns their interests with those of the shareholders.

Almonty is in the process of redomiciling to the U.S., a move expected to enhance its long-term competitiveness. The company plans to open phase one of the Sangdong project within the next two to three months, with phase two expected to be online within 12 months.

This rapid expansion is facilitated by groundwork already laid during phase one.

Almonty Industries offers a compelling investment opportunity in the critical minerals sector. With strong government support, premium pricing, a proven track record, and ambitious future plans, Almonty is well-positioned to lead the tungsten and molybdenum markets.

“The molly has the potential to make a profound effect on the company. I’d like to describe it that phase one tungsten is ‘X Revenue’ phase two is 2X, the molly mine is 4X. It means that as a company, as a group, we can see a clear path to four times our revenue within assets that we currently own,” CEO Black said in the video.

Investors looking for a stable and growing company in this sector should consider Almonty as a valuable addition to their portfolios.

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US military spending is set to undergo a comprehensive review which aims to reallocate funds from programs deemed lower priority – chiefly those connected to climate change and DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) – seeking reductions of around 8% from the Pentagon’s annual budget over the next 5 years.

The figure given by Acting Deputy Defence Secretary Robert Salesses was $50 billion – to be reallocated during the 2026 fiscal year – which represents around 6% of the $876.8B defense budget anticipated under Joe Biden’s administration.

But across the next 5 years, the initiative – guided by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth – could involve a funding reallocation of between $250B and $350B, and impact much of the civilian workforce.

The review marks another step in the path that Donald Trump’s administration has been on since its inauguration. In an interview in early February, the President signaled that Musk would be auditing the Pentagon, and would be likely to find ‘fraud and abuse’ at the agency.

In a separate interview with NBC, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz echoed these sentiments, commenting that the Pentagon’s shipbuilding processes in particular were ‘an absolute mess’, and that unnecessary spending was a feature across the board.

More recently, this desire for change has been followed up with the removal of several high-profile military personnel, including Airforce General C. Q Brown – the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – whose appointment was questioned by Hegseth in his 2024 book, The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free.

In it, he wondered if race might have been a factor in Brown’s elevation to such a prestigious position, saying “Was it because of his skin colour? Or his skill? We’ll never know, but always doubt – which on its face seems unfair to C.Q. But since he has made the race card one of his biggest calling cards, it doesn’t really much matter.”

Also among those fired last week was Admiral Lisa Franchetti, who – as head of the US Navy – was the first woman to lead a military service

But although the budgetary review is likely to usher in significant change in programming at the Pentagon – marking as it does, the most profound assessment of defence spending since the Budget Control Act (BCA) in 2011 – this is not likely to have a negative impact on the United States’ capabilities, according to Research Fellow at UWA Defence and Security Institute Dr Troy Lee-Brown.

Commenting on Waltz’s suggestion that shipbuilding processes could be under the microscope, Dr Lee-Brown said this area of military spending would not be likely to receive cutbacks.

“I was interested in Hegseth’s response to those comments, that he supported DOGE’s efforts to cut costs at the Pentagon, but not to the detriment of US operational and tactical capabilities,” he said.

“In fact, Hegseth believes defence spending should increase so that will be an area to watch.

“A bill was introduced to Congress recently that set out the need to grow the US naval fleet and raised ways in which allied shipbuilders might contribute to shipbuilding.”

Despite the likely profundity of the incoming military review, and the shift to a new US administration, Dr Lee-Brown said he was confident that the country’s $368 billion AUKUS deal with Australia – in which the latter would buy 3 to 5 off-the-shelf Virginia-class boats in the early 2030s – was on-target.

“Phase One or the SRF-West component of AUKUS Pillar One seems to progressing quite well at the operational level,” he said.

“(Defence Minister Richard) Marles’ initial meeting with incoming Sec Def Hegseth was encouraging with regard to phase 2 or the acquisition of 3-5 USN Virginia submarines.

“The politics will remain tricky and lots of work still to be done.”

Trump and Waltz’s earlier comments came only days after Richard Marles’ visit to Washington, where he and Trump met to discuss AUKUS, with Australia announcing it had paid the first of six $797 million payments.

While Hegseth made assurances that the boats would be delivered on time, there remain concerns about the deal, given the apparent difficulty US shipbuilders are having producing even the 2 subs per year required for US procurement.

Dr Lee-Brown said he did not expect any significant changes as part of President Trump’s overall approach to US defence, but added that “The Trump admin will pressure allies to do and spend more on defence.”

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The President mentioned two metals in particular focus: Aluminium and steel. The latter is one the U.S. imports from Australia, to the tune of $640 million a year.

Trump had also issued tariffs on steel and aluminium during his first term in office, prompting then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to press for an exemption for Australia, based on the two countries’ solid defence relationship, in addition to Australia’s trade surplus with the U.S.

It is expected that similar diplomatic pressure will be enacted by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. (He has not spoken with Trump since November 2024.)

Currently, the U.S. charges zero tax on steel, iron ore, or aluminium from Australia.

The issuing of tariffs has been key to Trump’s early weeks in the White House, coming on the back of an election campaign in which he said that tariff was “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”

In the first days after his inauguration, the President focused attention on Mexico and Canada – slating tariffs of 25% on imported goods from these countries, although announcements to this effect have been postponed.

Nevertheless, an additional tariff of 10% on all goods coming from China was actually announced – this being lower than expected – prompting retaliation from Beijing; China then declared any U.S.-originating goods like liquefied natural gas, coal, crude oil, farm equipment, and some automotive goods would be subject to tariffs of between 10 and 15%.

The latter tariffs – to go into effect on Monday – account for $14 billion worth of goods, with this development indicating a trade war between the two countries will not be cooling off any time soon.

An additional volley has come from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who warned the European Union would act quickly if Trump issued tariffs against EU goods.

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To talk about today’s big news and what it means, The Market Online’s Lyndsay Malchuk sat down with Almonty’s “thrilled” President and CEO Lewis Black.

Above is Ms Malchuk’s Capital Compass interview with Mr Black on the Almonty news.

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Ever sucked up in the riptide of Wall Street whether we like it or not – compared to which the ASX is, unfortunately, small fry – we’re vulnerable to volatility on U.S. markets.

Bad news, then, NVIDIA staged the biggest overnight loss ever recorded in share market history. That peak AI stock listed on the NASDAQ has been seen as proof manifest of American exceptionalism through the post-lockdown years.

But now an (apparent) technological AI breakthrough from China, the world’s still-struggling second-largest economy, has reminded us just how influential the Red Dragon economy can be.

(Perhaps poetically, it’s Year Of The Snake over there.)

But it isn’t just DeepSeek, and by extension the AI industry, where China has come hot out the gate of in 2025.

What I think is most interesting is over Christmas, the world seemed to mostly miss another big piece of market-rattling news from the Red Dragon.

That was China’s (ultimately self-reported) success in making vortex lance steelmaking work – a technological breakthrough that would allow it to use its own low-grade ores.

If China can now make the steel it needs to build from its own lower-grade iron ores, that means it doesn’t need to rely on the Pilbara anymore, for which Australian economic implications should be obvious. And thereafter, our share market.

(Consider also Rio Tinto’s ongoing construction of a Chinese-backed mega iron ore mine in West Africa which, despite reassurances, is guaranteed to hurt the Pilbara in the long run.)

Of course, AI is hot right now and steelmaking isn’t, so it isn’t hard to see (coupled with holidays) why DeepSeek is getting more attention than vortex lance steelmaking technology.

But put the two together, and you get a different image of China compared to its fairly poor run the last few years. On two major economic fronts, Chinese innovation appears to be giving the West a run for its money.

But first, let’s look at DeepSeek. Here’s a quick rundown if you’ve not caught up:

Its DeepSeek AI model released last week and properly soaked in by Western audiences on the weekend has absolutely left AI sentiment with a bone-deep bruise.

Here’s a speedrun:

The fallout Down Under has been predictable. While the ASX was perfectly flat on Tuesday, our tech sector has been rattled. Take a look at the following lunchtime metrics on some of our biggest (or best-known) tech stocks:

(Spare a thought for recently-listed Digico, which only just last week meaningfully got back above its launch price.)

This follows Wall Street darling NVIDIA falling more than 15% overnight, wiping off close to a trillion in market value.

It wasn’t just NVIDIA either. The NASDAQ-listed Super Micro Computer has tanked -12.5% overnight; American Superconductor Corp fell -10%.

The Magnificent 7 largely took hits as all those companies, currently AI-mad, now feel the pain of shareholder doubt.

(Interestingly, Taiwan-based TSMC, where NVIDIA gets many of its chips from, is actually green in Tuesday trades over in Taipei.)

Perhaps most telling that DeepSeek is rattling markets is evidence of a cyberattack already hitting the platform.

While it’s still a bit vague if it’s a directed cyberattack or just the hug of death (a term for when too many people access a website at once), at any rate, its ascension to the top of popular app markets is further proof DeepSeek is currently living in everybody’s head rent-free.

And that could, in turn, steal attention away from Wall Street stocks – which would almost definitely mean contagion downside for Australian stocks exposed to AI.

And/or data centres, which have now become synonymous with the emerging chatbot tech it isn’t even clear people actually want.

SAXO Markets’ Charu Chanana told HotCopper there’s a real risk here China could have seriously just taken the wind from Wall Street’s sails when it comes to AI.

“NVIDIA may not be in the pole position forever,” Chanana said.

“By developing cutting-edge AI models with less advanced and more cost-efficient hardware, DeepSeek challenges the heavy investments US tech companies are pouring into high-cost AI infrastructure.”

“Reports suggest DeepSeek-R1’s API costs just USD 0.55 per million input tokens and USD 2.19 per million output tokens, compared to OpenAI’s API, which costs USD 15 and USD 60 respectively.”

I won’t bore you with an explainer of what tokens are, but obviously, DeepSeek’s claims it can operate an AI model far cheaper than its US competitors are the thing to take note of.

OpenAI’s Sam Altman took to Twitter on Tuesday afternoon Australian time to run damage control.

“deepseek’s r1 [sic] is an impressive model, particularly around what they’re able to deliver for the price,” Altman twote. “we will obviously deliver much better models and also it’s legit invigorating to have a new competitor! we will pull up some releases.”

Legit, spoken like a true Millennial. His erstwhile claims that “the world is going to want to use a LOT of ai [sic]” remains to be seen.

That’s neither here nor there, really.

As for what happens next, the world will be constantly refreshing Wall Street futures and scanning Twitter and other platforms for the latest opinions from the AI czars currently in charge of market sentiment.

But the biggest story, in my view, is that China is back.

After years of headlines on China’s post-COVID-19 deflation issues, suspension of the once-many press conferences around economic issues, constant and underwhelming stimulus promises, and construction sector malaise (many written by yours truly), it’s clear the Red Dragon is back.

Can it continue to roar?

With vortex lance technology still in its early days, as well as DeepSeek, it’s entirely possible that 2025 could be the year that we start taking China a bit more seriously. Again.

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To talk about the global tungsten market, Almonty Industries (ASX:AII), and more, The Market Online’s Lyndsay Malchuk sat down with Sphene Capital analyst Peter Thilo.

Above is Lyndsay’s Capital Compass conversation with Mr Thilo on the big 2025 topic.

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Alphamin Resources (TSXV:AFM) reported a solid performance for fiscal year 2024 via a January media update, with significant increases in tin production and financial metrics. The company achieved a 38% increase in tin production, reaching 17,324 tonnes for FY2024.

Building on its success from Q3 2024, this growth is attributed to the successful expansion of the Mpama South project, which was completed in Q2 2024. For Q4 2024, Alphamin produced 5,237 tonnes of tin; a 7% increase from the previous quarter.

The processing facilities also performed well, with plant recoveries averaging 75%, surpassing the target of 73%. Despite high rainfall impacting outbound road conditions and transit times, the company managed to maintain robust production levels. However, tin sales volumes for Q4 decreased by 11% to 4,942 tonnes due to the clearing of a sales backlog in the previous quarter.

Financially, Alphamin’s EBITDA for FY2024 is estimated to increase by 102% to US$274 million, driven by higher tin production and sales volumes, as well as a 17% increase in the average tin price to US$30,345/t. The Q4 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance of US$76 million is 17% below the previous quarter due to lower sales volumes and a 4% decrease in tin prices.

Looking ahead, Alphamin has set production guidance of approximately 20,000 tonnes of contained tin for FY2025, benefiting from the full-year impact of the Mpama South expansion. This ambitious target reflects the company’s confidence in its operational capabilities and market conditions.

Alphamin’s exploration strategy is focused on three key objectives:

Exploration drilling at Mpama North and Mpama South recommenced in Q4 2024.

At Mpama South, a surface drilling campaign targeting down-dip, up-dip, and strike extensions is underway. Initial results have shown potential extensions of the mineralized system.

At Mpama North, geological fan drilling from underground has intersected zones of chlorite alteration and minor cassiterite veins and drillhole MNUD008A intersected a thick chlorite altered zone of visual tin cassiterite approximately 20m north of the previously most northerly Resource drillhole and some 200m below the bottom of the current mining echelon.

The tin concentrate market, particularly in Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), remains a critical area of focus.

Alphamin is one of the world’s largest producers of high-grade tin concentrate which positions it strategically to capitalize on market dynamics.

The global demand for tin, driven by its applications in electronics and technology, continues to rise, providing a favorable backdrop for Alphamin’s growth.

Alphamin Resources Corp presents a compelling investment opportunity. The company’s significant increase in tin production, robust financial performance, and strategic exploration initiatives point to its potential for sustained growth.

The successful expansion of the Mpama South project and the promising exploration results at Mpama North and South further enhance its value proposition. With a strong foothold in the DRC, Alphamin is well-positioned to benefit from the rising global demand for tin.

The company’s stock has grown an impressive 35% compared to this time, last year.

Investors seeking exposure to the tin market should consider Alphamin as a key player with substantial upside potential.

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Nor will you see evidence of cracks in the AI hype in any relevant company’s messaging.

Across Silicon Valley (and governments, workplaces, and just about everywhere else), the promises of next-generation search engines, chatbots, and sorting programs continue to imply great optimism for societal progress.

There’s one pretty big and important place where you can see cracks in the AI thematic emerging. It’s a little company called Apple.

You know: The biggest company on Earth right now.

We’re talking about iPhone 16 sales. Or the lack thereof. To remind you, AI was a massive selling point of the latest iPhone evolution.

But on Wednesday, yet another round of analysts downgraded the stock as concerns linger in the financial world over whether the iPhone 16 was a good bet, or not.

This was of concern to some even as far back as July 2024.

“The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally considered to be the reason for [a contemporaneously reported] increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in Beta for US users,” analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote on his website.

“Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic.”

Sales data definitely doesn’t suggest a revolutionary uptick in sales.

Apple even re-named what AI stands for – from ‘Artificial Intelligence’ to ‘Apple Intelligence‘ – in the lead-up to releasing the latest smartphone favourite.

But there’s this pesky one big problem. People aren’t buying. So far, that has helped push Apple’s share price down -11% so far in January.

And that’s what I’m talking about when I ask if cracks are beginning to show in the AI hype machine. After all, the company bet big on AI as a selling point. In many ways, the iPhone 16 was a testing of the waters.

But it’s also just a phone. It’s a phone with one gimmick attached – Apple Intelligence lets you, say, come up with new emoji designs, and other such things, but all are fairly ‘gimmicky.’

And clearly, that alone hasn’t been enough to persuade people to shell out for a new phone.

So if we accept the iPhone 16 as an indicator to test public enthusiasm for AI in general (and what better way to express enthusiasm than make a large purchase,) well… the AI hype narrative looks a little embarrassed.

I admit both charges. It doesn’t absolutely prove it one way or the other. I’ll admit that. Let’s go through counter-arguments.

The one big counterargument to my claim here is the price point of the iPhone 16. The website advertises a price of $1.3K. There’s a cost of living crisis, after all.

Then there’s the fact much of that the sales decline is also taking part in China market places, and there are geopolitical concerns there.

Well, no. Perhaps everybody in China is desperate for AI, and would buy it, but not for the fact Huawei’s Mate XT is out. (A phone which, by the way, has a tri-fold design.)

Between the lines: There’s the issue where Apple is a U.S. company competing with China’s Huawei at a time of heightened geopolitical rivalry.

Apple had, however, already rattled some analysts’ feathers late last year when it was revealed iPhone sales wholemeal were already falling in China.

Those declines continue. In the most recent iteration of data, we’ve learned iPhone sales in China fell around 20% QoQ in the last three months of 2024. That was only adding onto a YoY trend with all four quarters in contraction.

Reuters reports iPhones in China don’t have the same AI capabilities advertised in markets elsewhere. That’s because Apple Intelligence is apparently only in English.

Not this, not on its own. But if this is the first real evidence we have of a pending slowdown in newsflow from companies about AI due to weaker-than-expected sales, meaning it isn’t worth the advertising budget, that could see the hype start to die off.

(This is, after all, where hype comes from. I get paid to try and generate it.)

In that world, it’s not hard to conceive tech juniors banking heavily on the concept might suffer. But we could see this Apple iPhone sale slowdown hit the ASX in some other ways – most speculative.

We could see revenues take a dent at JB Hi-FI (ASX:JBH); it’s conceivable in the world I described above that NextDC (ASX:NXT) and HMC’s data centre Digico Infrastructure REIT (ASX:DGT) could take a hit.

And, while this is speculative, Donald Trump’s move to ban WFH for Federal workers could prove to be a catalyst again later this year.

That depends on whether or not Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, an open Trump fan who is no doubt watching, decides to test that policy point here.

It wouldn’t be hard to consider – Dutton has basically been stealing his talking points for years.

(And maybe that’s smart of him: Australia is unique in that its Opposition party was at one point apparently running on the single issue of nuclear energy, which I sense most Australians don’t care about.)

To be sure, a glance at the XPJ ASX200 A-REIT benchmark’s performance on Tuesday shows that significant bullishness hit the charts, right up until Trump started talking about tariffs and frightening markets.

This was largely in line with the wider market.

An Australian political leader promising to get strict on ‘work from home’ could be a good thing for Australian Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stocks, given it implies an en-masse shift of workers back into office towers.

The value proposition there is fairly obvious once you’ve got all the moving parts in the right order. REIT stocks have been suffering – with exceptions – ever since COVID-19 lockdowns saw large swathes of the world’s office-based workforce disrupted and, a lot of the time, working from home.

High bond yields and inflation have been enough to assist some stocks on the Aussie market. And, late last year, Morgan Stanley said they expect ASX200 REITs to generally climb into October 2025.

Still, valuations for commercial real estate plummeted everywhere during COVID and for many to this day, they’re still recovering. So are office vacancy rates.

The move is most likely to do with the Trump 2.0 administration’s proposal to cut government spending wholemeal.

It’s not hard to find Australians who will comment on the fat rife in our public sector, the country’s biggest employer – clearly, a desire to give Ozempic to the public sector is growing in Washington.

The question now, too, is what the U.S. private sector does with this news.

While our taste of a modern plague was obviously a Black Swan, the society-level structural shift posed by the internet had meant work-from-home jobs were slowly growing – but at nowhere near the rate they did when people were ordered to stay at home.

The rest of the story is obvious: Since then, it’s been workers vs. employers as a great culture war takes place surrounding whether work from home should be kept or forgotten.

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That’s not because the company became a producer back in September – in fact, that was some of the most hotly watched and discussed news on HotCopper at the time.

It has more to do with one-year returns being down 61%; an economic crisis in Cuba threatening its power grid country-wide (the grid collapsed entirely last year,) and, the exodus of its citizens to the U.S. remains at record high levels.

In short, these problems have all outweighed the company’s progress in becoming an oil producer in the small island nation historically misaligned with the U.S.

The company could now be in for more pain – though, the HotCopper community, usually watchful of geopolitical affairs, has been quiet. It’s also strange because Melbana commands one of the busiest and most regularly updated threads on the boards when it comes to explorers.

The bad news is this: Only days after Biden declared the U.S. would no longer consider Cuba a terrorist state, Trump 2.0 has kicked in, and now Cuba is a terrorist state again.

What does that mean for Melbana Energy? Not much right now, but it’s not hard to war game in one’s head how it could play out.

With Cuba’s economy in serious trouble (as well as its power grid), it could have tapped the U.S. for assistance. But based on historical ties (and the communism thing), Trump’s obviously not willing to bury any hatchets in a way that makes it easy for Cuba.

And that means Cuba will be cut off from American Exceptionalism when it comes to tapping large American companies listed on Wall Street for assistance, as well as from any support Washington could provide.

That means Melbana – illiquid on Tuesday – will likely continue to operate in a struggling Cuban economy. Still, shares were up 3% on Tuesday. Just don’t look at how little turnover moved the price.

MAY last traded at 2.8cps.

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