Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. – then led by Joe Biden – was one of several countries which provided military, humanitarian, and financial aid to Ukraine in addition to military intelligence.

But much of this hangs in the balance in the wake of the Oval Office meeting, in which President Trump – long noted for his closeness to Russian leader Vladimir Putin – accused Zelensky of not quite being sufficiently grateful for U.S. support, and told him he was “gambling with World War Three.”

Vance followed by asking, “Have you said ‘thank you’ once this entire meeting? No.”

Departing the White House, Zelensky went to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London for a summit there on 2 March to discuss how European nations – alongside Canada – could contribute to Ukraine’s defence during the war.

But questions remain: What this support will look like long term, how these countries might configure themselves around the U.S. if it cuts off support to Ukraine – and how that country might avoid such a consequence.

Making things right with Washington certainly seems to be on Zelensky’s agenda: A few days after his confrontation with Trump and Vance, he used social media platform X to express regret about how things had gone, and underline his commitment to diplomatic engagement around the war.

“Our meeting in Washington… did not go the way it was supposed to be,” he wrote. “It is regrettable it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.”

Zelensky added Ukraine was “ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer,” stating he’s willing to work under Trump to secure this.

Crucially, he said he was still willing to sign a deal with the United States for the proposed development of Ukrainian critical minerals, which had been on the agenda of his meeting at the White House the previous week.

It is not yet clear whether these overtures would be enough to overturn Trump’s suspension of all aid to Ukraine, nor a more recent announcement that claimed the sharing of military intelligence was also on hold.

The latter was announced by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and followed by comments from CIA Director John Radcliffe on what Zelensky needed to do to reverse the policy.

Radcliffe claimed Trump “had a real question about whether President Zelensky was committed to the peace process, and he said, ‘Let’s pause, I want to give you a chance to think about that.'”

One of Trump’s major claims amid these tensions is that the United States has taken on an “unfair burden” – compared to European countries in particular – when it comes to providing support to Ukraine.

And if analysis is confined to military spending alone, this is certainly the case.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a Germany-based research body scrutinising global issues, the U.S. contribution to military aid in the past three years is the equivalent of €64 billion, compared to €62 billion from European donors.

However, the trend is reversed when it comes to financial and humanitarian aid, with European sources allocating €70 billion to the US’ €50 billion. This also means the European contribution is higher overall.

Indeed, in a news report published as recently as February 14, the Kiel Institute argued “European donors have been the main source of aid to Ukraine since 2022, especially when it comes to financial and humanitarian aid.”

Altogether, it estimated Ukraine has received €267 billion of aid in the past three years, amounting to €80 billion a year. Of that, 49% was defined as military aid, 44% was financial support, 7% was humanitarian aid.

The Kiel Institute also suggested Trump’s election would be likely to keep U.S. contributions behind those of Europe after being overtaken by the latter in mid-2023, with European governments under pressure to step up their support initiatives.

Also noted was an increasing trend of collaboration between European nations for the provision of military weaponry, including the U.K.-led International Fund for Ukraine which combines contributions from multiple countries to buy military equipment for Ukraine, with a total allocation of €1.6 billion.

The majority of military aid across all donors had been sourced from existing arsenals, but more recently, weapons came to be sourced direct from industry.

While Trump’s decision to cut off military funding and the provision of intelligence to Ukraine present a significant setback for the eastern European country, it appears several of its other allies are intent on formulating a plan for its defense even beyond a peace deal.

At the March 2 summit – called by Starmer – the leaders of 18 countries, mostly in Europe, developed a four-point plan to reassure Ukraine of their support.

These included a pledge to continue providing military aid to the country, alongside economic pressure on Russia; a call for Ukrainian sovereignty to be recognised in any future peace talks; calls to boost the country’s defence capabilities even after peace was reached, to stave off a possible invasion; and agreement to form a ‘coalition of the willing’ to secure long term peace for Ukraine.

After the summit, which had been called just a week earlier, Starmer underlined the significance of this moment, and the decisions needing to be made, saying: “We are at a crossroads in history.”

While stating in the future, Europe might have to do the heavy lifting when it came to support of Ukraine – something which in the British case could involve “boots on the ground and planes in the air,” he acknowledged any agreement would need support from the U.S. – and has to include Russia.

Additional U.K. support was announced after the summit, comprising a £1.6 billion package of export finance to buy more than 5,000 air defence missiles, which would be built in Belfast.

This will add to an already announced loan of £2.2bn loan for more military aid, which has been backed by profits taken from frozen Russian assets.

With French President Emmanuel Macron, Starmer has also been progressing diplomatic efforts to secure peace, with both leaders separately telephoning Zelensky and Trump to finalise a deal in coming weeks.

No matter what happens next though, it will be a busy, and tense, few weeks ahead.

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The raising was completed as an Entitlement Offer, with eligible shareholders offered one new fully paid ordinary share for every eight shares held, at an issue price of 2.5 cents, together with one free attaching new option (with an exercise point of five cents) for every new share issued.

Existing shareholders took up 83,786,106 new shares and 83,786,106 new options, with these to be allotted on December 19 and commence trading a day later.

The funds raised will be plugged into the promotion of PainChek’s Adult App and the development of an Infant App. The former will include expansion into aged care and home sectors in the U.K. and Australia-New Zealand markets, and recruitment and set-up activities to enable the Adult App to enter the North American market, once it is cleared by the FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration).

In preparation for Infant App’s commercial launch, PainCheck is also completing an Infant Access Program and recruiting key staff for the launch.

Managing director Philip Daffas said the Entitlement Offer was an important step to enable the promotion of the smart-based pain assessment and monitoring applications.

“On behalf of the directors we thank all our existing and new shareholders who participated in the entitlement offer for their continued support,” he said.

“The funds received will enable us to commence USA market entry, commercialisation of Infant App and expansion in existing markets and planned international growth.”

PainChek last traded at 2.7 cents – a rise of 3.85% since market open.

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MyAccess, which manufactures and retails cannabis products, provided medical cannabis treatments to help patients dealing with chronic pain, mental health, and sleep conditions.

The sale should help Althea achieve operating cost savings of around $1.5 million, as well as annualised cost savings of $4 million (previously announced in May).

On top of that, the ASX-listed company will now be able to concentrate on expansion of its North American operations, particularly targeting the cannabis beverage sector through Peak Processing Solutions – its recreational cannabis business whose products are marketed to retail stores.

Althea CEO Joshua Fegan said the decision would boost the company’s ability to grow in North America in particular.

“The completion of this sale marks a significant step in AGH’s strategy to streamline our operations and sharpen our focus on high-growth opportunities,” he said.

“By divesting MyAccess Clinics, we are better positioned to accelerate our North American expansion, particularly in the cannabis beverages market through Peak Processing Solutions.”

Althea shares fell on the news, and at 14:14 AEDT, they were trading at 4 cents – a fall of 6.98% since the market opened.

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The Melbourne-based Vinyl has bought up Serenade’s assets – including its UK subsidiary – through a Business Deed Sale which began with a $800,000 upfront scrip payment which is to be followed by a scrip earn-out of $1.5 million based on P&L targets.

Shareholders in Serenade received $800,000 worth of Vinyl shares (valued at $0.09739) under the agreement, and will receive a further $1,500,000 in shares if the combined business of Vinyl.com and Serenade hit a revenue target of $4,000,000 and EBIT of $500,000 in the 12 months following the deal’s completion.

The deal will bring Vinyl access to physical and digital collectibles related to more than 200 global artists, include the Gallagher brothers of Oasis, Muse, Sum 41, Twnety One Pilots and Thirty Seconds to Mars.

Serenade has also developed commercial partnerships with more than 100 record labels including Warner Music Group, Beggars Group, Concord, Glassnote, FUGA and PIAS.

Vinyl has also been drawn to Serenade’s strong performance with its NFC-enabled Smart Formats offering, which had recorded 56% month-on-month growth since launching in January 2024, with this including sales of more than 12,000 units in the first half of the year.

The agreement has also seen a number of central Serenade employees join Vinyl, including CEO Max Shand, who is working full-time with Vinyl to lead Serenade, and also help to rapidly accelerate the Vinyl.com business, expanding its product offerings into physical and digital collectables whilst launching into additional markets.

Vinyl Group CEO Josh Simons said the acquisition was an important development for the company.

“Max Shand has built Serenade into a business with significant potential, and through our acquisition of the platform, we’ll put the resources into Serenade to allow it to reach that potential,” he said.

“Vinyl Group is, at its core, a tech business and this was a great opportunity to expandour tech offering. We look forward to welcoming Max and other key members of the Serenade team to Vinyl Group.”

Vinyl shares rose on the news, and at 14:35 AEST, they were trading at 10 cents – a rise of 3.09% since the market opened.

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Cornish Lithium Plc’s Trelavour Hard Rock Project – which will use Lepidico’s proprietary hydrometallic lithium processing technologies – has been awarded the status of ‘Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project’ by the Secretary of State for Housing Communities and Local Government.

Trelavour was considered to be of such significance due to its likely economic impact and influence on the region, as well as the acknowledgement that lithium is a mineral of strategic importance to industry.

Lepidico’s hydro-metallurgical process employs low cost, conventional reagents along with industry standard equipment, and is low in energy consumption.

Managing director Joe Walsh said the UK government decision reflected well on the progress of Lepidico in terms of its technological development.

“The directive from the UK Government’s Secretary of State that the Trelavour lithium mica project should be treated as a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project represents a significant endorsement of Lepidico’s proprietary patented process technologies,” he said.

“A £9 million (A$17.7 million) demonstration plant to process Trelavour lithium mica mineralisation is currently in the advanced stages of construction, with chemicalconversion via L-Max® and LOH-Max® to produce a nominal battery grade lithium hydroxide.

“We congratulate Cornish Lithium on this significant achievement.”

Lepidico’s share price doubled on the news. At 13:24 AEST, shares were trading at 0.3 cents – a rise of 50% since the market opened.

REA confirmed to investors on Wednesday that it had made a non-binding indicative proposal to Rightmove’s board on September 5, offering its shareholders 305 pence in cash and 0.0381 new REA shares.

This would have implied a total offer value of 705 pence for each Rightmove share – valuing the latter’s entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital at approximately £5.6 billion (or $11.01 billion).

In addition to this, Rightmove shareholders would have held approximately 18.6% ofthe combined group’s issued share capital following completion of the proposed transaction.

However, on Tuesday, the Rightmove board informed REA that it had rejected the proposal, which the latter had argued could have facilitated the creation of a ‘global and diversifieddigital property company, with strong margins and significant cash generation, underpinned by number one positions in Australia and the UK’.

REA shares fell on the news. At 11:33 AEST, they were trading at $198.65 – a fall of 1.89% since the market opened.

NeuroNode is a wearable device which captures the brain signals being sent to skeletal muscles and transfers this input to a personal computer to enable speech and other functions, and through the agreement with Smart Box, it will now be made available to people with Motor Neurone Disease (MND), cerebral palsy and related conditions.

The contract will be for an initial term of two years, and will see Smart Box UK become exclusive distributor for the wireless product (and its Controller App).

Control Bionics CEO Jeremy Steele said the company was thrilled to see NeuroNode make it to the UK and Irish markets.

“This exclusive agreement marks an exciting step in our mission to empower people with severe disabilities to communicate and regain control of their lives through innovative technology,” he said.

“The NeuroNode has already been paired with hundreds of Smart Box devices and devices with Smart Box software around the world.

“We’re excited to extend this successful relationship to the UK and Ireland for the first time and look forward to building on this strong foundation to enhance the lives of users across these countries.”

“By leveraging Smart Box’s expertise and established network, we are confident that this partnership will accelerate the adoption of NeuroNode® across the UK and Ireland and improve the quality of life for countless individuals with speech and motorimpairments.”

The market seemed pleased with the news, and by 12:05 AEST, Control Bionics shares were trading at 9 cents – a rise of 3.45% since the market opened.

Making quiet conditions worse is that we’re in the ‘financial Christmas’ period – companies are all working on their annual reports and so there’s not a whole lot of newsflow hitting the bourse lately. Sure, there’s some, but nowhere near the volumes we were seeing even this time last year. This is actually something I’ve been noticing daily for a few months now.

While the day-to-day gross newsflow volumes of ASX announcements can’t really be used as a hard scientific economic indicator, one does get the impression that the animal spirits of publicly listed companies – broadly and with many exceptions – are opting to take a step back and wait to see where the economy (and trader enthusiasm) travels in H1 FY25. That’s already the case, despite the fact everybody is currently bunkered down, working on their annual reports.

Perhaps more exciting is that “the year of elections” – 2024 opened with much commentary focused on the geopolitical implications of a calendar year where dozens of national elections happened to line up – is now really starting to be felt.

First we had India’s a few weeks ago, where Modi stayed in relatively firm control despite a weaker supportbase than expected. Indian traders initially responded with some degree of uncertainty, but as of early July the Nifty 50 is up 7.23% MoM.

Then there was France, where the far-right National Rally party won around a neat third of the national vote, bringing that party – not exactly pro-EU – to likely hold considerable influence in government. A second round of elections in France take place this weekend, where candidates will be decided for good.

Despite initial concerns, the French CAC 40 is up 2.00% over the last week. Then there’s the UK.

Just this afternoon Australian time, UK Labour leader Keir Starmer – a former chief prosecutor – has won the UK election with a ‘landslide’ vote as the UK punishes the Tories for a wide array of different points of contention. Rishi Sunak’s appearance in the pouring rain without an umbrella only weeks ago, while perhaps just a bit of poor timing and not really indicative of performance, has repeatedly been pointed to by commentators this afternoon as the point where a unifying sense of farce might have kicked in.

Even Murdoch-owned newspapers deferred to a Labour vote. Right ahead of Europe trades at 4pm Sydney time on Friday, FTSE 100 futures were up around +0.25%.

And while Europe manages to pull the Western world’s attention, there is of course the one big looming election that happens in November – another US Trump vs Biden rematch.

While the entire world appears to have an opinion on last Thursday’s debate that saw Biden fumble alongside a very alert Trump, there was one other big development from the Supreme Court that has really changed things up. In short, the US Supreme Court – which Donald Trump stacked with conservative justices during his first tenure, don’t forget – has ruled that Donald Trump has a broad right to immunity when it comes to alleged criminal acts performed while President.

The debate really comes down to whether or not a criminal act conducted ‘officially’ can be criminal. The Supreme Court effectively handballed the decision to a lower court in regards to Trump’s ongoing case regarding January 6th, and it’s now unlikely to be heard until 2025 – after the November US 2024 election.

Even if that lower court departs from the Supreme Court’s sentiment, the Supreme Court is still the literal supreme court – it’s not clear how long a lower court’s decision would survive given an appeal would go back up the chain.

That may not seem like too much of a big deal, and wouldn’t be, were we in the 2010’s political era. But we aren’t – we’ve got Donald Trump, a man loved for his irreverence, but who has also said he would spend the first year back in power, if elected, persecuting the political opposition (read: arresting them.)

Should that happen, then long-held fears from the likes of Fitch Ratings and Moody’s that America’s perception of stability could suffer, ultimately risking American exceptionalism, may come true. If America does descend into a Trump-branded authoritarian state, it’s probably not too unlikely that Wall Street will do just fine.

But that’s not really what I’m getting at. The fact is, America’s stability and dominance economically – especially the USD and treasuries – has a lot to do with its perceived stability – and that perception could have changed very rapidly by this time next year.

At any rate: predict a lot more chatter about these elections and more in the coming weeks as analysts everywhere try to figure out what it all means for the future. That will probably remain the main topic until earnings season hits proper both in the US and here at home.