This amounts to an increase of 186.6Mt, with 48% of the mineral resource now converted into a reserve which is estimated to comprise 1,464 ppm (parts per million) lithium and 5,444 ppm boron – or 1.92 Mt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) and 7.68 Mt of boric acid equivalent (BAE).

These parameters support Ioneer’s plans to build a large, long-life, low-cost expandable operation, focused on the production of lithium carbonate, boric acid and then battery-grade lithium hydroxide.

The co-product of boric acid is expected to make up 25% of annual revenue from the project in its first 25 years; this is set to keep EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the green at low lithium prices and EBITDA margin of65.7% based on average production over first 25 years.

Costs for the Rhyolite Ridge are some of the lowest among global lithium projects, with an all-in sustaining cash cost of US$5,745 per metric tonne lithium carbonate equivalent. Meanwhile, its after-tax NPV is placed at US$1.367 billion, with an unlevered, after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 14.5% – making for a suite of robust economics.

Managing director Bernard Rowe said the reserve update was testament to the value of the mineralisation there.

“Today’s updated Reserve and Mine Plan reinforces the importance of Rhyolite Ridge’s remarkable mineralogy,” he said.

“Our Ore Reserve estimate of 247 Mt containing a total of 1.92 Mt LCE and 7.68 Mt BAE make it the largest lithium-boron Reserve in the world.”

Ioneer shares have moved higher since the news, and at 13:17 AEST, they were trading at 13 cents – a rise of 8.33% since the market opened.

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The royalty will first be applied to the Standard Lithium–Equinor joint venture, but will also set a critical commercial precedent for all developers with projects in the Smackover Formation, including Pantera.

This royalty is expected to boost the company’s project economics in two ways: Firstly, through the protection of early-stage economics by requiring the royalty be paid only upon the sale of lithium carbonate or equivalent final product, not at the point of extraction; this would also ensure downstream margin retention.

Additionally, a royalty of 2,5% is relatively competitive and materially lower than royalty structures in other lithium brine jurisdictions, which will also improve the project economics for many companies operating in this area.

The setting down of this framework will also remove uncertainty about royalties – a boost when it comes to engagement with investors, who will also be able to see how the framework works for global lithium players.

This is expected to strengthen Pantera’s position in discussions with infrastructure, offtake, and capital market partners.

Executive chairman and CEO Barnaby Egerton-Warburton said this decision would support the company significantly.

“The AOGC’s endorsement of a structured lithium royalty is a gamechanger for Pantera and all serious developers in the Smackover Basin,” he said.

“We now operate in a regime that offers clarity, fiscal stability, and policy support for lithium as a critical mineral.”

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He added: “Combined with the Arkansas State enacting legislation to stimulate the industries growth by offering a temporary severance tax exemption that will mean lithium producers are exempt from the state’s severance tax on saltwater brine from July 1, 2028, through June 30, 2033 — a six-year tax holiday that further enhances the economic potential of Pantera.”

PFE has been trading at 1.4 cents.

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The anomaly, which comes before maiden drilling next month, was picked up following Perpetual’s 220-sample soil and auger geochemical program and indicated that the strike length of the outcropping high-grade lithium-bearing pegmatite could expand to more than 1.4 kilometres.

This should open the door for further mineralisation to be found along strike, and builds on previously reported rock chip samples, which revealed more than 7% Li₂O (lithium oxide) and 5.3% Cs₂O (cesium monoxide) at the project.

Adding to this, a significant new lithium target has also been picked up through first-pass soil sampling done 2.3 kilometres southeast of the main pegmatite prospect, with results going beyond 400 ppm Li₂O.

Perpetual’s exploration manager, Allan Stephens, said this sampling work has underscored the value of Perpetual’s assets. “These latest results reinforce the scale and potential of the Igrejinha Project, with the LCT corridor now stretching over 1.4 km and remaining open along strike,” he said.

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“A new lithium anomaly highlights regional upside, supported by high-grade lithium and caesium at an artisanal working. With maiden drilling in early June, Perpetual is entering an exciting phase to unlock value.”

PEC shares have been trading at 1.3 cents.

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The decision to focus on Igrejinha has been influenced by the exceptional assays picked up during a recent program of mapping and sampling work on outcropping spodumene found in the target zone.

A pegmatite measuring more than 15 metres wide, and NE-SW trending was exposed in artisanal workings there, yielding rockchip assays such as 7.6% and 7.5% lithium oxide (Li2O), and channel sample assays of up to 3.26% Li2O. In addition, caesium (Cs₂O) was found grading more than 5.3%.

Location has also proven an attraction, with this target located less than 10 kilometres from globally significant lithium projects, including Sigma Lithium’s low-cost production complex, Lithium Ionic, and CBL, which are also found within the same geological setting as Igrejinha.

Perpetual is planning to roll out a drilling program of 1,500 metres in early June.

Exploration manager Allan Stephens said the drilling work – which will total 1,500 metres and commence in early June – was an important step for the company.

“We are pleased to have secured an experienced drilling partner for our maiden lithiumfocused campaign in Brazil’s renowned Lithium Valley,” he said.

“Igrejinha continues to display strong geological fundamentals, with confirmed high-grademineralisation, scale potential, and proximity to some of South America’s largest spodumene deposits and lowest cost spodumene production in the world.

“Drilling will target surface-exposed mineralisation along a 1.4km NE-SW pegmatite corridor, and we look forward to providing further updates as the program advances.”

At 13:35 AEST, Perpetual shares 1.4 cents – a rise of 7.69% since the market opened.

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The mine is jointly owned by Piedmont – which has a 25% investment – and Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA) – which holds the other 75%.

The project is the largest producing spodumene mine in North America.

Data from drilling, which launched in February and concluded in December 2024, will be plugged into an updated MRE, looking to upgrade resource classification and increase overall resource tonnage.

President and CEO of Piedmont, Keith Phillips, said the drill results would set the company up well for its next stage of development.

“The positive drilling outcomes support our plans for a potential brownfield expansion at NAL, aiming to increase production capacity to meet the growing global demand for lithium with resources produced in North America,” Mr Phillips said.

Additionally, the drill results will also open the door to expanding production at NAL and support improved mine planning.

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“These developments reinforce our commitment to advancing NAL as a cornerstone asset in our portfolio and contribute to our vision of becoming a leading supplier of lithium products critical to the energy transition.”

Piedmont has been trading at 11 cents early on Thursday.

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The region’s governments are becoming increasingly aware of the need to shore up future supplies of a wide range of commodities and are working to attract more activity.

The region has been perhaps best recognised for lithium and the ‘Lithium Triangle’ spanning Argentina, Bolivia and Chile. However, with lower lithium pricing, the focus has shifted to include materials including gold, silver, copper, mineral sands, phosphate, uranium, and more.

Because many jurisdictions have been under-explored in Latin America, ASX-listed companies are finding projects of a quality that’s now very difficult to secure in Australia.

What’s also pleasing those companies working in the region is that operational costs, such as power and labour, are dramatically cheaper. They are finding that approval processes are moving faster.

In this webinar, you’ll hear about the risks and the potential rewards – with facts and figures for investors to consider.

We ask company leaders what attracted them to Latin American projects, we discuss the potential impacts of Donald Trump’s tariffs, and we look at their experiences in developing a variety of projects.

Our guests include experts and company leaders:

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In this HotCopper Thematic Insights report, we explore jurisdictions that are rolling out the welcome mat to ASX-listed exploration and mining investment.

We weigh up the risks vs. rewards, and we talk to companies with first-hand experience working in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru.

Learn about companies in Latin America, including Lodestar Resources (ASX:LSR); Viridis Mining & Minerals (ASX:VMM); EV Resources (ASX:EVR); Advance Minerals (ASX:AVM); Battery Age Minerals (ASX:BM8); Equinox Resources (ASX:EQN); and, Magnum Mining & Exploration (ASX:MGU).

Download your FREE report here.

To learn more, see the associated Webinar and hear this week’s HotCopper Podcast.

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The company today told its investors it would aim to optimise expenses and lower overheads, from a starting point of $15 million cash in hand.

This would mean prioritising drilling exploration like its second-phase program at the Vuzel gold project in Bulgaria and an approach to non-core projects, which could range from divestment to entering joint-venture agreements.

Based on its solid balance sheet, the company is also engaging with several public and private companies – having screened more than 800 of them.

While Andover would remain a core asset for Raiden, its development will remain on hold for the time being given the state of lithium and the need for additional Native Title agreements to be completed for further drilling.

“With current market conditions presenting both challenges and new opportunities, we have refined Raiden’s strategy to focus on disciplined capital deployment, portfolio optimisation, and proactive growth,” Dusko Ljubojevic, Raiden’s managing director, explained to shareholders.

“Our around $15 million cash position provides us with the flexibility to advance key projects like the Vuzel gold drilling program while evaluating new opportunities with near-term value potential.”

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On the same day, Raiden reported on its activities for the March quarter, saying it had received assays from maiden drilling at Andover, RC (reverse circulation) at Mt Sholl -a nickel-copper-PGE project, and aircore drilling at the Arrow gold project. All are located in Western Australia.

RDN has been 0.5cps – a rise of 25% since the market opened.

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The project – located close to Darwin – is built around the Lei deposit, which carries a mineral resource estimate (MRE) of 4.09 million tonnes at 1.43% Li2O (lithium oxide), numbers which LPM believes put it among the top deposits for this commodity in Australia.

The company is considering the development of an underground mine at Lei, but also the possibility of a development pathway focused on direct shipping ore (DSO).

Recent planning activities have included completion of preliminary designs for mine and surface infrastructure, an initial assessment of the haulage route which included Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA) studies, and preliminary studies regarding water management.

LPM intends to run advanced stage modelling for water management alongside environmental impact assessments – both required under the Supplementary Environmental Report (SER) process.

Development activity also sought to boost and define the quality of the resource. This included a 51% uplift in head-grade (to 2.52% Li2O) at 57.8% mass yield for 87% lithia recovery – achieved through ore sorting trails – which allowed for the reduction of about 42% of low-grade material into a waste stream.

This work mainly sought to enhance the economics of the planned DSO operation.

LPM has also conducted metallurgical test work on the ore, achieving 85.3% recovery to a concentrate of 6.12% Li2O from DMS and fines and middlings flotation on a high-grade sample.

The company has progressed offtake opportunities, signing an MOU (memorandum of understanding) with Canmax which will provide exposure to processing margins for lithium hydroxide/carbonate, in addition to consideration of potentially non-dilutive development financing for the project.

Finally, it lodged a mineral lease application (MLA 33874) – stretching over 295 hectares, including the territory connected to Lei’s MRE; currently under assessment. LPM is encouraged by prospective zones of mineralisation close to the deposit, including a second pegmatite which is not counted.

LPM shares have been trading at 6.1 cents.

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Commissioning had involved testing and calibration of all components of the Pursuit plant, ending with an assessment of its circuit through hydrostatic testing, with production commencing after that.

The brines being processed through the Salta plant are synthetic, but chemically identical to naturally evaporated brines from the Rio Grande Salar.

Pursuit managing director and CEO Aaron Revelle said this was a key achievement for the Rio Grande Sur project, which is based out of Argentina’s northwest.

“Successfully commissioning and initiating lithium carbonate production represents a major step forward in de-risking our processing methodology and proving the commercial viability of our scalable production strategy,” he said.

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“With global lithium demand continuing to show signs of recovery over the coming years, we are now firmly positioned to transition toward large-scale, low-cost lithium production.”

Pursuit has been selling at 7cps through Friday morning trade.

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The company has been carrying out phase one diamond drilling at Tin Mountain, picking up intercepts such as 5.2 metres at 2.05% Li2O (lithium oxide) from 39.2 metres, including 1.5 metres at 3.04% Li2O from 40.8 metres in one hole.

Yet another hole had the following: One metre at 1.54% Cs2O from 31.2 metres.

Iris completed all holes in this phase of exploration – which comprised 23 holes for 1,122 metres – late in 2024 and is now moving to Phase Two, which will focus on deeper and central core pegmatite zones with horizontal drilling.

The company will also carry out mineralogical mapping studies alongside its next drilling phase to develop a maiden mineral resource estimate.

Phase one drilling showed the main pegmatite extends down-dip under cover, is open at depth, and has mineralisation near-surface (whose qualities are now confirmed).

President of U.S. Operations Matt Hartmann said this work indicated Tin Mountain had multi-mineral potential. “The Phase I drill results at Tin Mountain confirms high-grade mineralisation and the multi-element potential of the host pegmatite, including lithium and now caesium,” he said.

“Plans for Phase II are underway to target the central pegmatite zone which proved difficult to access with a conventional surface drilling approach.

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“Iris will leverage extensive surface exposure and historic mining operations, combined with 2025 advanced technologies, to deepen our understanding of the Tin Mountainproject and advance towards a maiden mineral resource.”

Iris shares have been trading at 23.5 cents.

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During the test work, which was carried out in collaboration with Central South University (CSU) of Hunan, solid and co-precipitation methods were assessed concerning the production of LMFP CAM. Five batches were produced.

The LMFP batteries were produced through this, using manganese sulphate in solution, which was then processed into LMFP CAM.

The development, the company said today, now makes Firebord one of only a few companies outside China to have produced such batteries.

Firebird signed an agreement with CSU in October 2024 to precipitate this collaborative work; managing director Peter Allen has today said this was an important first step in that team-up agreement between the two.

“The commencement of testwork and first production of LMFP batteries with CSU is an exciting and transformative step forward for Firebird in the commercialisation of our LMFP cathode materials, which will ultimately be distributed directly into global battery markets,” Mr Allen explained.

“Manganese sulphate is a critical element within LMFP and our manganese processing knowledge and IP enables Firebird to drive significant value by co-precipitation.

“We expect our process to translate into substantial cost advantages in sulphate production by bypassing the manganese sulphate crystallisation process, which is the largest component of our operating costs.

“This streamlined approach not only reduces costs but also results in a superior qualityLMFP product, strengthening our position as a cost-effective, high-quality leader.”

Firebird shares moved up after the news, and at 11:39am in Sydney they were trading at 9.9 cents – a rise of 7.61% since the market opened.

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In the wake of the invasion, uncertainty and tension saw the latter push up to a price of $120 per barrel, and this period was followed by a spate of sanctions against Russia – chiefly targeting oil, gas and coal – from the United States, Canada, the European Union and other Western entities.

(This tendency has continued too, with the EU this week signing off on its 16th sanction package, which includes bans on the provision of services and technology that could facilitate completion of Russian LNG or crude oil products.)

In a general sense, the war prompted conversations about the need for countries to ensure their supply chains are both strong and diversified.

This is then augmented by the headwinds from recent U.S. tariff policies.

But Donald Trump’s recent interventions in international diplomacy concerning the war have introduced another topic into the chat: Ukraine’s richness in critical minerals, which the U.S. President wants to get his hands on.

The idea echoes early pronouncements from Trump that the States could acquire Greenland, an autonomous territory in the kingdom of Denmark rich in uranium, rare earth minerals, and iron ore.

After that, he moved his sights to the benefits that could be yielded from Ukraine in return for U.S. military aid. Initially, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected a proposal that would have handed over half of the country’s critical mineral assets to the United States.

But after meetings which began over the weekend, it appears that Ukraine’s leaders have agreed to a deal which would enable the joint development of the country’s assets in return for strengthened relations with, and military support from, the United States.

According to media reports, the deal is set to be formalised on Friday, with Zelenskyy planning to fly to Washington for this purpose.

For much of its history, Ukraine was known for its contribution to agriculture: Unsurprisingly, given it accounts for a third of the globe’s most fertile land, with wheat, maize, and sunflower oil being some of its main exports in this sector.

But the country also holds 5% of the world’s mineral resources, including 20,000 deposits of 116 different types, of which only 15% (or 3,055) were active. Of the active deposits, 147 were metallic; 4,676 non-metallic.

More specifically, Ukraine has been noted for its supply of rare earth metals, titanium, lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, graphite, apatite, fluorite, and nickel.

Titanium – a metal essential for the aerospace, medical, automotive and marine industries – is a particularly attractive commodity for the U.S., and Ukraine holds the world’s largest reserves and was a key supplier to the military sector before the invasion began.

Alongside this is lithium – a commodity whose fortune has fluctuated in recent years, as oversupply in China led to a price plunge, although this is a situation expected to correct itself in the next year or so, as supply wanes again.

Ukraine is home to one of Europe’s biggest confirmed reserves of the metal (at an estimate of 500,000 tonnes), including the Shevchenkivske field and the Kruta Balka block.

Since these are in regions close to the conflict – Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia respectively – their exploitation has not been possible for several years.

The country is also the fifth largest producer of gallium – an increasingly sought-after metal, whose price rose significantly last December due to Chinese export restrictions – in addition to supplying 90% of neon gas which is essential to the U.S. chip industry.

As nations vie to secure the materials critical for the ‘electrification of the globe’ and clean energy transition, Trump’s intentions in Eastern Europe may be ethically questionable, but not surprising.

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CC9’s expansion comes via an application for seven exploration licences in a West Australian greenstone belt prospective for the aforementioned critical mineral and gold.

The WA territory in question is the Southern Cross Greenstone Belt, which is home to deformed greenstone sequences and pegmatites hosting lithium and which includes the 189 million-tonne Earl Grey lithium mine.

Gold is also a feature here, with more than 150 mines and several large systems observed in the area; the Marvel Loch Gold Centre is also set along the belt.

The latter’s main gold mine historically produced 24,883 tonnes grading 2.52 grams per tonne, for a yield of 2,014,000 ounces. Other nearby mines include Bounty, Yilgarn Star and Nevoria.

Chariot’s applications – which have been made through a wholly owned subsidiary – are located strategically between Earl Grey and Marvel Loch, situated on the Archean Yilgarn Craton, which has a specific prospectivity for lithium-caesium-tantalum (LCT) pegmatites as well as high-grade gold.

As well as the promise of Marvel Loch’s gold system, other geological prizes include deformed greenstone sequences featuring late-stage granitic intrusions and structural corridors where lithium pegmatites can be found.

Chariot has already pegged four areas of interest to be targeted for exploration work, in particular E77/3088 – which is noted as prospective for both gold and lithium and E77/3274 – which includes the Gem rubellite bearing pegmatite, as well as having gold-exploration potential.

This tenement is also within the mafic greenstone belt, which hosts the Earl Grey lithium deposit and Bounty gold deposit.

A geological review of the tenements will also be conducted by ERM Sustainable Mining Services, and upon granting, exploration work will include geological mapping, surface sampling, geochemical surveys, and drill programs based on results from the latter.

Chariot has been trading at 9cps through Thursday.

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This was based on a price prediction of US$1,170 per tonne of spodumene concentrate (SC6) to produce a battery-grade lithium carbonate (Li2 CO3, or LC).

Currently, the spot price for the former is set at around US$775 per tonne, while the price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is US$10,680 per tonne.

According to the DFS, the operating costs for Bécancour will be approximately US$3,931/t, while the capital cost estimate is US$549 million.

In terms of revenue, Lithium Universe is predicting approximately US$383 million, and an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of around US$148 million, with the project to break even at around US$740 /t (SC6) and around US$14,000 per tonne LC.

The company’s board has now signed off on a push ahead to the final investment decision (FID) and seeking funding for Bécancour.

Chairman Iggy Tan said the decision was based on the strength of the DFS data.

“The strong NPV and returns for the project indicate an economically viable projectand the Board has made the Financial Investment Decision (FID), and the project is now proceeding to the funding stage,” he said.

“An equity and debt adviser will be engaged to lead the funding outreach program, aimed at securing strategic partners at the project level to support project financing.

“Initial discussions with various banks and debt providers have been encouraging.”

Shares in Lithium Universe rose after the news, and at 12:28 AEDT, they were trading at 0.9 cents – a rise of 12.5% since the market opened.

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Last month, Western Australia-based Global Lithium requested the Takeovers Panel freeze or forcibly sell the portion of the company controlled by then-non-executive director Dianmin Chen, citing concerns about foreign ownership guidelines.

Two board members, chairman Ron Mitchell and non-executive director Matt Allen, said they would stand against any effort by Dr Chen to take control through his supporting bloc, which holds between 30 and 40% voting power.

Mitchell and Allen had also expressed concern about the potential appointment of Liaoliang “Leon” Zhu to the board, given his interest in driving the company towards a stronger investment in lithium – contrasting the board’s preference for a diversified approach which viewed nickel and gold as potential ventures.

As a result of the stoush, the AGM was pushed back to February, after the Global Lithium board successfully lobbied the WA Supreme Court to partially delay this, in light of its application to Takeovers.

However, later in January, the panel decided it would not look into the confidential report submitted by the Global Lithium board which had alleged an inappropriate influence being exerted over the company by Dr Chen.

At the AGM on February 13, Dr Chen was re-elected as director, as well as being appointed managing director and CEO, joined by Mr Zhu and Dr Xiaoxuan (David) Sun – who were also elected to the board this week.

The meeting also ended with Ron Mitchell’s resignation from his position, and the company said it was also on the lookout for a non-executive director.

The Manna project – 100 kilometres east of Kalgoorlie – was prioritised as a central focus given its status as the second-largest lithium resource in the Eastern Goldfields (with a mineral resource estimate of 51.6Mt at 1.0% Li2O).

Global Lithium shares have been trading flat at 24 cents.

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The new tenements at the early exploration project cover Archaean greenstone rocks over ‘some 16 strike kilometres’ and 180sqkm. This almost doubles the area along strike at the project that the company says is “considered under-explored for gold.”

Ordell Minerals will issue $40,000 in shares to Greatland Gold PLC – or its nominee – at 32 cents per share to acquire the ground (E63/1953).

The deal includes the provision of all exploration data and a Heritage Agreement.

This year, the company plans to capture historical data and evaluate previous gold, lithium, and nickel exploration works.

It will also carry out fieldwork – including infill and extensional surface geochemical sampling – to validate targets and run ‘reconnaissance aircore (AC) drilling’ to test geochemical anomalies identified through soil sampling.

Last month, Ordell released drilling results from a small diamond drill run at its Barimaia project near Mount Magnet. It claimed the project was showing open pit potential.

ORD last traded at 36c. It has a market cap below $13 million.

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The key features of ‘Trend Four’ comprise artisanal workings extending along strike from a newly discovered pegmatite, with the latter found only 650 metres from Trend One – which contains grades of up to 6.8% Li₂O (lithium oxide) – and 300 metres from Trend Three, which has grades up to 0.9% Li₂O from weathered pegmatites.

An initial sampling program at Isabella yielded lithium grades of up to 6.8% Li₂O, indicating its high-grade nature, and with the discovery of Trend Four, Perpetual can say it has delineated four distinct mineralised corridors.

Regional interpretation has also indicated extensions of up to three kilometres are possible when extrapolated at both ends.

Perpetual has also been encouraged by the presence of other prospective projects in this territory, dubbed Brazil’s ‘lithium valley’, including Atlas Lithium’s Das Neves – which has uncovered an intersection of 1.47% Li₂O over 95.2 metres – and less than three kilometres from Sigma Lithium’s Sao Jose Project.

Next on the agenda will be a maiden drilling program planned for the first half of 2025, with approval received for this by the Minas Gerais Environmental Agency.

Perpetual shares are trading at 1.6 cents.

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During the quarter, 6M wet metric tonnes (wmt) were mined from Onslow, for an overall production total of 8M wmt across this project, plus the Pilbara and Yilgarn hubs, and total shipments of 5.2M wmt.

The company’s ramp-up program at Onslow is also on track, with quarterly activities including the MinRes’ jumbo road train fleet commencing its use of the 150-kilometre haul road, and a third transhipper starting work at the Port of Ashburton in October, as the company anticipates the arrival of a fourth in February.

In lithium, MinRes saw quarterly spodumene production of 136,000 dmt across all three sites – Mt Marion, Wodgina and Bald Hill; shipments reached 143,000 dmt.

The company noted Bald Hill had been placed under care and maintenance in November.

The main quarterly developments in its energy division were its transaction with Hancock concerning MinRes’ oil assets in the Perth Basin and Carnarvon Basin – with the deal totalling up to $1.1B.

This resulted in the sale of 100% of EP 368 and 426 to Hancock on December 18, with an initial consideration of $780 million being received.

MinRes has been trading at $36.25.

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And looking at the new President’s actions within his first week – particularly concerning policies around renewable energy and building a ‘greener’ economy’ – one could be forgiven for thinking of the paradox of ‘an unstoppable force’ meeting ‘an immovable object.’

That is to say, Trump appears to present an immovable position of disdain towards environmentally friendly policies and clean energy transport – and a desire to emphasize fossil fuels instead.

However, he is faced with the unstoppable force of a global energy transition, underscored in particular by the growing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs).

And market-watchers might also ask, what could this mean for ASX-listed companies focused on critical minerals?

In his first week – starting January 20 – Trump signed a swathe of executive orders, including one promising to get rid of what he described as an ‘electric vehicle mandate’ imposed by the Biden administration.

This referred to an executive order signed by Joe Biden in 2021 which was pushing for half of all vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030 to be EVs. While the latter was more about encouraging buyers rather than restricting their access to other cars, Trump has sought to frame the issue as a matter of promoting ‘true consumer choice.’

His own order, ‘Unleashing American Energy,’ also ends Federal funding for vehicle charging stations – subject to completion of a review process – and works to end a federal exemption relating to California which allows the state to phase out the sale of vehicles fuelled by petrol (gas) by 2035.

The first of these has already received pushback from Democrats pointing out Biden’s charger funding was part of a wider bipartisan infrastructure law, together with climate law the Inflation Reduction Act – noting any attempts to remove funds already allocated would be illegal.

To further underscore his antagonism to environmentalism, Trump has also considered a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, with a definite order to new UN ambassador Elise Stefanik to take the country out of any commitment made in the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Key to the electric vehicle story is the critical mineral of lithium, which has been locked in a volatile cycle, reaching a high point of 5750,000 Chinese yuan per tonne (CNY/t) in late 2022, before a dramatic fall of 86% over the last two years, as the market responded to the problem of oversupply, mainly from China.

The situation was still dicey coming into the new year; lithium prices had fallen 25% year-on-year throughout 2024.

China has also become the protagonist of an optimistic narrative for the metal as Beijing policymakers push for clean cars to make 20% of vehicles on Chinese roads by 2025.

Consumers there have been offered subsidies to buy EVs, and this was doubled in July 2024, with Chinese buyers flocking to purchase these vehicles: The latter trend was indicated by 31% growth in EV sales, year-on-year, for the first nine months of last year.

Additionally, recent data has shown the output of new energy vehicles within the country soared by 30.5% in December.

So will this demand and production mop up the lithium glut?

On one hand, the outlook for this critical metal appears to be improving – with experts tipping the global supply of lithium carbonate (LCE) to fall from 150,000 tonnes in 2024 to 80,000 in 2025.

Again, this is largely based on Chinese demand right now.

Closer to home, the commodity’s continuing low price has affected local producers and explorers, exemplified by IGO Ltd (ASX:IGO)‘s decision (taken together with joint venture partner Tianqi Lithium) to close operations at its lithium refinery in Kwinana.

While design issues at the plant were part of the story, IGO acknowledged a weak lithium price had also prompted anticipation of a net loss in the first half of the year.

This followed pullbacks from other players in the lithium space, such as NYSE-listed Albemarle: Which in August 2024 announced that expansion efforts at its Kemerton lithium hydroxide conversion site – also in Western Australia – would be rolled back, with the workforce to drop by 40%.

On the other hand, ASX-listed companies such as Chariot Corporation Ltd (ASX:CC9) – which is approaching lithium at the exploration stage, with a large tenement portfolio in Wyoming, Nevada, and Oregon – are holding tight to their assets and waiting out the price headwinds while the EV market and lithium demand rebuilds.

Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole S. Hansen believes that although Trump’s new policies and approaches may stifle the United States’ drive towards electric vehicle ownership, the overall trend remains positive.

“Demand for critical metals towards the energy transformation, and specifically the EV industry, may see a slowdown in demand from the US,” he said.

“But ultimately, I do not believe it will have a material impact on the demand outlook as the energy transition will continue — also in the U.S. — as long the industry can compete with traditional producers.

“The 50% target (of Biden’s) I believe was never realistic and it’s not my belief that miners have based their demand outlook on that assumption.”

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