commodities News | The Market Online The Market Online – First with the news that moves markets. Breaking Australian stock market news, ASX 200 announcements and the latest ASX news today. Fri, 28 Feb 2025 05:14:46 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.1.1 Where Oz’s equity market is going under growing ‘headwind’ trends in 2025 https://themarketonline.com.au/where-ozs-equity-market-is-going-under-growing-headwind-trends-in-2025-2025-02-06/ Thu, 06 Feb 2025 04:50:36 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=738524 While Australia’s equity market put in a general show of strength through 2024, recording an 11% return to the start of November (better than the 8% of the past 20 years), its various sectors have been pulled in different directions by both positive narratives and concerning headwinds coming from offshore.

And while some of the ‘headwind’ trends are likely to continue – notably, questions around the strength of the Chinese economy and closer to home, the drag of domestic inflation – there are new ones to consider, such as a new U.S. presidency led by Trump.

At the same time, the drive towards clean energy, and new technological offerings is also likely to influence equity markets, largely on the upside.

Talking to HotCopper, David Harvie – Country Head of Sales for Saxo Markets Australia – reflected on the equity market’s performance throughout 2024 and shared his predictions and advice heading into 2025.

The landscape faced by investors in 2024

Generally strong returns were the most obvious overall trend.

“Anytime, anywhere, if an investor could sit down and say they had achieved double-digit returns, including dividends, in a portfolio, that’s a positive from an absolute perspective,” Mr Harvie explained.

He added certain sectors – such as banking – had also enjoyed a positive run, but warned Aus equities had also been burdened by both national and international factors.

“There were some headwinds as well: Domestic inflation, which we’re all acutely aware of, [and] commodity prices struggled,” Mr Harvie said.

“Those iron ore prices that we all watch very closely struggled, China has had its concerns, and oil has really gone nowhere.”

Investors should also be aware that the size of the Australian equity market – and what it “doesn’t have much of,” according to Harvie – will also shape returns.

“While our tech sector did really well, it’s just not big enough to have a material impact on the broader returns,” he said.

“If we flip it and look to the U.S. as a prime example, they were two and a half times that – or 25% – and that’s on price, not including dividends.

“Japan was in the ’20s with its accommodative policies, and European defence stocks are another example I’d point out.”

Another ‘golden year,’ but watch other commodities closely

One trend that was likely to continue into ’25 was the strong performance of gold; supply of this commodity remained tight, Mr Harvie shared, expressing confidence in the possibility of silver outperforming expectations.

“The divergence between the two might be worth clicking on,” he said.

“On the negative side, unfortunately, we still see struggles for the Chinese economy and we see knock-on effects from that.

“We see a supply glut for oil – so those more traditional resources may struggle in the Australian context.”

However, a standout trend for investors to keep an eye on Down Under was the performance of metals associated with the ‘electrification of the globe,’ such as copper, lithium, and other critical minerals.

“I think a lot of investors are just focused on the demand piece, which seems to be very strong when it comes to electrification,” Mr Harvie continued.

“Lithium as an example is probably something that one would – also on the flipside – have a look at the supply equation and how that’s playing out.”

What to expect from the ‘Trump effect’

Of course, Australian and global equity markets ended 2024 with a striking influence to consider when it came to economic and political shifts, with Donald Trump becoming U.S. President for a second time.

Mr Harvie noted the moves and positioning seen on markets even before Trump’s second term began were noteworthy in themselves.

“Certainly in my lifetime I cannot recall in general media a more active conversation about an incoming President, so I think that’s instructive, and I think that goes beyond the personality, and more towards the potential policy,” he said.

“The second thing [to note] is arguably the ‘smart money’ – institutional money and retail money – has started to position portfolios ahead of the inauguration.

“So we’ve seen a tremendous run-up in Bitcoin, for example, we’ve seen a tremendous run-up in AI, albeit with some pullback with DeepSeek over the last week or so.”

Regarding the knock-on effects to the Aussie market of potential and already announced policies, tariffs with China were pointed out as a major issue.

“If we think about it from an Australian perspective, if all of a sudden an embargo or trade restriction around one of our largest partners China, what will be the knock-on effect for us,” Mr Harvie said.

“That could be quite a hindrance, again, when it comes to our resource-rich market.

“What will be the impact to labour markets is if there’s a reduction in immigration or indeed deportation… that’s something I would point to as well.”

What ‘Make America Great Again’ really means

At the same time, some of Trump’s policy pushes – such as the suggested annexation of Greenland – reflected more fundamental concerns about acquiring and retaining essential materials to facilitate growth in domestic energy resources.

“He’s talking about annexing Greenland. Why? Because of that critical minerals piece there,” Mr Harvie said.

“And when you pull all that back, ‘Make America Great Again’ is another way of saying, let’s bring sovereignty back home, let’s bring resource production back home, and make sure we’re self-sufficient as an economy.

“And that’s happening globally. The struggle for the Australian market is we just don’t have the scale to be able to do that – we are so reliant on our trading partners.

“An investor here should be quite careful and sector-specific for the Aussie market, but also as we say… turn one’s eyes abroad and start to look at those other global thematic, [the] industries and sectors which should probably benefit from Trump 2.0, and those other macro-economic factors.”

The international tech sector’s dramatic year

Turning to trends among global tech stocks, Mr Harvie highlighted the fascinating (or horrifying, depending on your perspective) story of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, whose launch wiped out U.S. technology stocks including sector darling and market-leading marker Nvidia only a week ago.

The issue, he said, was that many of the top tech stocks were not prepared.

“Those stocks are almost priced for perfection… they’re priced for solid growth and lack of a player like DeepSeek coming along, and that’s a mini–Black Swan event,” he said.

“That’s why you saw prices take a tumble very quickly. On the flip side, 48 hours later, a reasonable amount of those prices has been made back.”

But the DeepSeek story might also give impetus to other companies wanting to jump into this space, he added.

“It also goes to the fact that where there’s super normal pricing power, we’re probably going to see – in fact, we’ve already started to see with DeepSeek – some of that attention towards [the narrative of] ‘how can other companies, other countries get in on the act?’,” Mr Harvie said.

For investors, such an event could provide guidance when it came to picking stocks.

“It’s back to investor basics 101: Where am I invested? What assets do I have? Where am I invested globally, and what themes do I subscribe to?” he added.

“That’s a top-down approach. The bottom-up approach is then obviously picking the stocks that live within that and ensuring that those stocks that one has picked represent an adequate proportion of one’s portfolio.

“If you’re over-indexing in Nvidia or whatever the case may be, you do run the risk of the next DeepSeek coming along and mucking around with your returns.”

Looking for the big trends worldwide

Looking at the equity market as a whole, Mr Harvie said the keyword – even if it was a tad overused – was “diversification.”

“I think that term gets thrown around a lot, and maybe as a trader or investor, we’re a bit blasé when we hear it,” he said.

“But if we think about it, how that translates is really tapping into what’s happening in the real world. What’s happening in the real world is nations are bringing capacity home, they’re bringing chip-making home, energy production home when they can, and that’s very relevant with large economies like the U.S.

“It’s also relevant in Europe: We’ve seen NATO countries leaning into their defence capacity on the back of what’s been happening with Russia, but also Trump coming in and demanding those countries spend an X amount of their GDP on defence, which is why we’ve seen that be such a strong performer globally in 2024.”

Alongside these macro themes would be the likely vibrant performance in precious metals, and the importance of energy sources and the stocks and sectors attached to that.

“My advice would be [to] go back to macroeconomics, look at those global themes and see how you can position your portfolio to best take advantage,” he said.

“Not just geographically on the map, but asking ‘where can I gain access to those underlying themes?’

“Then, look up and pick some individual stocks or ETFs from there.”

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Australian economy faces global headwinds, RBA caution as it heads into 2025 https://themarketonline.com.au/australian-economy-faces-global-headwinds-and-rba-caution-as-it-heads-into-2025-2024-12-31/ Mon, 30 Dec 2024 22:23:56 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=731671 As Australia wraps up the festive season, it can be said that we have survived a tough year, one which came to an end with disappointing GDP figures that showed the national economy to have slowed to its slowest pace ever since the 1990s recession (or by 0.3% in the September quarter).

Adding to this is the chatter around our central bank, which has been under pressure to cut rates, but has largely resisted this, choosing instead to keep the cash rate steady at 4.35% – a position it’s held since November 2023.

Reflecting on how the Aussie economy has performed in 2024 – and how it might fare in the following year, given various headwinds including a second Trump administration in the U.S. and a continuing slowdown in China – ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch contributed several thoughts on the outlook.

Starting with the recent GDP numbers, Ms Birch said it showed the impact high inflation has been having on Australia.

“We did see the slowest annual GDP growth in Australia outside of the pandemic, since the 1990s recession, and that does show the economy is really feeling it at the moment,” Ms Birch explained.

“We have seen inflation really be a challenge for the economy. That has certainly caused some challenges for many industries and parts of the economy: construction is a big one in particular.

“We know a lot of construction firms have really struggled with the sharp rise we’ve seen in input costs. And some of the supply disruptions have really constrained how much can really be done, and therefore limiting growth as well.”

In response to high inflation, the RBA had taken a tough line on rate cuts – and had received pushback for this. But Ms Birch said it’s important to remember Australia had differed from other countries in terms of its initial experience with inflation, and how the RBA had chosen to respond to this.

“We saw inflation pick up later, we saw it peak later, but it’s also been slower to come down as well,” she said.

“And one of the differences, not only in the timing of rate changes versus other central banks, is that the RBA took our cash rate to 4.35% – well below a lot of comparable economies.

“For example, over in New Zealand, their OCR peaked at 5.5%, we saw over in the US, the rates peaked at 5.25-5.5% as well.

“So one of the reasons the RBA did that was that they were willing to tolerate a slower return of inflation back to target with the benefit being that unemployment wouldn’t rise as much if they took rates even higher to try and get inflation back to target sooner.”

Indeed, evidence of a consistently resilient labour market in Australia seems to have justified the Reserve Bank’s actions.

Looking into the new year, it was likely that – unexpected data notwithstanding – the RBA’s cautious policy would be likely to continue.

“We’re expecting that the RBA will start to cut rates in May and that there will be only two 25 basis point rate cuts in this cycle – so getting down to 3.85% by August next year, and then staying there,” Ms Birch said.

“A lot of people might not want to hear that sort of forecast. It will depend quite a bit on the data as to when the cuts start.

“If we see inflation and labour market data and household spending becoming weaker than expected over the next couple of months, it’s possible that they may start to cut rates in February.”

Turning to global headwinds in 2025, Ms Birch said the key word guiding predictions for both the Australian dollar and commodity prices was ‘volatility.’

The former would be likely to drop in the first half of the year, influenced by the anticipated impacts of Donald Trump’s promised tariff policy.

“We think that we’ll be seeing, by the middle of 2025, the Aussie dollar at around 63 US cents, but potentially there are periods where it gets lower, closer towards the 60 cents mark,” she said.

However, Ms Birch added several variables would enable Australia’s economy to survive these headwinds, with the dollar moving back towards 67 cents in the second half of 2025.

“We think Australia is still relatively well placed compared to a lot of other economies in terms of our growth outlook, and also our ability to deal with any shocks coming up as well, so that room we have on the fiscal policy side and monetary policy side,” she said.

Geopolitical and global economic volatility would likely also retain the strength of gold as a safe haven, she added, while other commodities would be shaped by trends coming out of Beijing.

“We think about something like lithium – the oversupply in batteries that we’re seeing in China will likely limit the near-term outlook at least, but the longer-term outlook still looks really positive,” Ms Birch said.

“And then of course there’s the China story as well: With that slowdown, that structural weakness that we’re seeing in the property sector only being partly offset by some of the stimulus measures and the move towards those new productive forces.

“So more investment in renewables and things like EVs and green infrastructure. Now, those sorts of things should boost things like aluminium and copper and some supply disruptions in those metals should also protect any price downside.”

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

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Waning appetites for green metals and the ‘comfortable’ safe haven of gold: Thoughts on investment and commodities https://themarketonline.com.au/waning-appetites-for-green-metals-and-the-comfortable-safe-haven-of-gold-thoughts-on-investment-and-commodities-2024-10-31/ Thu, 31 Oct 2024 05:26:47 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=722892 For anyone investing in – or watching investment in – commodities and their associated stocks, the last few years have been an interesting ride, shaped by optimism around the generational shift towards green energy and its flow-on effects, but also tempered by reports of oversupply and disappointing demand.

And offering a critical backdrop, there is the ongoing reality of geopolitical instability and tensions, as well as news flow from critical economies such as China, which have driven rallies but also demanded a closer inspection to predict where commodity prices may go in the future.

The lithium rollercoaster

One of the most talked about of these commodities is of course, lithium, which hit an all-time high of 5750,000 Chinese yuan per tonne (CNY/t) in December 2022 before slumping and showing volatility ever since; it’s trading now at 72,500 CNY/t.

This year has been a particularly bad one for the critical metal, with it falling 24,000 CNY/t since the start of 2024, based on trading on a contract for difference (CFD) which follows lithium’s benchmark market.

Reflecting on these patterns, Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen said the lithium market appeared to have reached its lowest point, but a move up again could take time.

“The lithium market remains challenged by the overproduction capacity built up during and after the 2022 surge and subsequent collapse,” he said.

“With the current price starting to make some projects uneconomical, it’s our view that the race to the bottom has ended – however, for the price to recover, demand has to improve, and this may take longer to achieve given the slowdown in EV rollouts.”

It’s not easy being green

Despite being highly watched and newsworthy, the market for electric vehicles (EVs) is definitely on a slow track, as evidenced by Ernst & Young’s fifth annual Global Mobility Index, which showed demand levelling off, with buyers expressing concern about the infrastructure for charging.

Released in September, the report included 19,000 respondents across 28 countries, and indicated that interest in purchasing an EV was still present – rising from 55% to 58% since the previous year – but still sluggish, with demand shifting from 30% to 55% between 2020 and 2023.

For most respondents (27%), their key issue was lack of charging infrastructure, while 25% said they were concerned about EV range, and 18% saying that the length of time taken to charge the vehicles was also on their minds.

A new question in the survey – on the cost of battery replacements – returned a 26% expression of concern about this issue.

But this reflects only one part of a wider story, which Mr Hansen said was a move by investors away from stocks connected to the green energy transition.

“I see very little enthusiasm for green transformation metals and the companies involved – reflected in the steep losses the related stocks have witnessed in the past 18 months,” he said.

“For that to change, the fundamental outlook needs to improve, followed by hedge funds abandoning long held and very profitable short positions across the green transformation and energy storage sectors.”

The Chinese dragon and the red bull

Mr Hansen also pointed to economic news coming out of China as an underpinning factor in the performance of lithium and other metals.

“China has yet to address their overriding problem, which is low consumer confidence, and an oversupply of housing funded by underfunded banks and local governments,” he said.

“With that in mind, a recovery will be bumpy, but overall, the electrification of China is ongoing at a rapid pace and that will continue to underpin demand for copper and lithium while other products like steel and iron ore may struggle.”

The red metal has – in contrast to lithium – experienced a very good year indeed, reaching an all-time high of US$5.20 per pound (lb) in May, with an overall rise of 0.45 USD/lb or 11.60% since the start of 2024. (Currently trading at US$4.33/lb.)

“Copper continues to receive a great deal of focus from investors looking for higher prices amid strong and rising demand driven by the green transformation,” Mr Hansen said.

“However, the rallies seen this year have been unsupported by fundamentals, as China’s housing sector has struggled and inventories monitored by the major futures exchanges have stayed elevated.”

He added investors might be cautiously looking at conditional factors in the short term but maintained that copper would be on solid ground in the long-term.

“We maintain a bullish outlook for copper but for now, the upside is limited due to an overhang of supply and worries about the economic outlook,” Mr Hansen said.

“The electrification of the world is real and, in the coming year, the combination of robust demand towards grid upgrades and electrical appliances will likely be met with tight supply from miners struggling to increase production.”

Gold’s appeal amidst strong global headwinds

An even stronger performer this year has been of course, gold – which reached an all-time high of US$2,790 per Troy ounce on Wednesday (October 30), with an overall rise of US$721.72/t oz, or 34.99% since the start of 2024.

Given the proximity of this recent leap to the U.S. election next Tuesday, one could be forgiven for thinking this was the key factor to keep in mind. Mr Hansen said it was certainly relevant, but added that a long list of other political and economic concerns were also keeping this commodity strong.

“I see limited signs of exhaustion in the gold market,” he said.

“The metal has rallied by more than 30% this year as investors around the world seek protection against multiple uncertainties, all pointing to an unsettled world.

“The main drivers of this bullish phase include concerns over fiscal instability, safe-haven demand, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarisation driving strong demand from central banks, Chinese investors turning to gold amid record low savings rates and property market fears, and increased uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election.

“Additionally, rate cuts – by the US Fed and other central banks – are reducing the cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold and silver. This environment is already spurring renewed interest in gold-backed ETFs, particularly from Western asset managers who have been net sellers since May 2024.”

What the US election might mean for gold

When it comes to the link between the Trump-Harris race and trends in the gold price, Mr Hansen outlined a theory of how fears about a Republican-dominated political scene were pushing investors towards the safe haven of this metal.

“Given how the geopolitical risk premium has deflated in crude oil (which slumped the most in two years on Monday), we conclude that the latest strength in gold is increasingly being seen as a hedge against a potential ‘Red Sweep’ in the US election, where one political party (in this case, the Republicans) controls both the White House and Congress,” he said.

“This scenario raises concerns about excessive government spending, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio higher, while fuelling inflation fears through tariffs on imports and geopolitical risks.

“Investors are turning to precious metals as protection, even as expectations for lower rates and easier financial conditions fade, as the FOMC may end up being forced to pause the current rate-cutting phase.”

At this stage, the race is still very tight, with a CNN report on Wednesday indicating Harris maintains a tiny edge over Trump in two of three key states and is tied with him on the third.

Michigan voters appear to favour Kamala Harris by 48% compared to Trump’s 43%, while in Wisconsin the difference is 51% in her favour, against 45% for Trump. In Pennsylvania, voters have shown 48% support for each candidate.

Upon news of the result next week, Hansen added, the situation for gold might change.

“Nothing ever goes in a straight line and, having rallied as much as it has, gold can still run into a deep correction after November 5 if a ‘sweep’ scenario does not ensue,” he said.

“But as long as the above-mentioned reasons for holding gold do not go away, the prospect for even higher prices remains.”

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo https://themarketonline.com.au/week-31-wrap-jorc-rules-to-get-tougher-rba-rate-hike-chance-50-50-us-fed-sept-cut-still-the-quo-2024-08-02/ Fri, 02 Aug 2024 04:19:52 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=708556 Apologies for the lack of a wrap last week, I was busy moving apartments. I’ve missed a lot, though, not really that much. The biggest ticket item is that now the US Presidential election race has a new blue rep, Kamala Harris. That she would end up replacing Joe Biden was fairly obvious.

The centre-left Harris is unlikely to introduce any measures wildly anti-business, but talk of rent controls and minimum wage increases have fired up obvious rabble. Relative silence on her more in-depth and exact economic policy platform is likely a thing of strategy, as policymakers close up any loopholes the GOP could sink their teeth into.

In the UK, the BoE cut rates overnight – the first decision underneath the new Starmer Labor government. The FTSE ended up red, though, if you look at the TSX, that bourse is up nearly 4% MoM, suggesting June’s rate cut pivot is starting to feed through and partially responsible for uplift.

The Fed also held rates earlier this week, nothing has really changed with a view towards expectations of a September rate cut. 

Copper struggled through Week 30 and into Week 31, sunk on fears demand expectations YTD were overwrought. The final nail in the coffin was the Chinese Third Plenum; yet another Chinese whole-of-government event that failed to stimulate any excitement, at all, from world markets.

I’ve already written about that, so I’ll leave it there. Crude oil prices also took a hit. The YoY gain for copper as of Monday 29 July was less than 6%, a shadow of its former reading earlier this year.

Australians are all thinking about the RBA and its early-August meeting, effectively an interest rate decision. While Australian trimmed mean inflation dipped to 3.9%, it’s worth being cautious. Analysts predicted that a rise over 4% would have guaranteed a rate hike, but the difference between 3.9% and 4.1% is…well, it doesn’t leave a lot of room to fit a new couch sideways.

Consider also Australian manufacturing inflation increased in the latest data we got on Friday, too. And given that housing supply is guaranteed to remain pretty much screwed until the 2030’s, it’s not clear how rental and property-driven inflation is going to subside. 

So will there be a rate hike in August? The market doesn’t seem to think so, but personally, I’m a little nervous. In the background: coking coal exports to China fell in -13% in Q2 and iron ore exports fell -9% as the world’s second largest economy remains troubled. 

There’s one more item on the agenda that ASX traders should probably be aware of: Australia is intending to upgrade its JORC code legislation to make it even more difficult for companies to dance around the edges of regulation.

One observer quoted by Bloomberg believes the changes will stop companies from making up terminology to describe their geological finds, a dogwhistle which anyone familiar with microcap explorers will understand clearly. 

Commodities Copper bull run unravels following Third Plenum yawnfest Deep-sea mining could come down to an election in the tiny nation of Kiribati JORC code to get tougher on explorers making wild claims Australian Economy Whether RBA will hike interest rates in August basically 50/50 Australian inflation comes in-line with expectations – but still too high for RBA Albanese’s stage 3 tax cuts, wage rises, negligible in face of RBA rate hike: Deloitte Australian consumer remains under pressure as retail recession continues International Economies  Chinese manufacturing activity falls for third month in a row  First Eagle Investments’ McLennan buying gold incase no US President tackles debt Subdued US factory activity causes Friday panic – despite showing rate hikes work Australian Stocks Macquarie expects negative earnings downgrades to define August reporting Australian bank stocks’ gains not driven by fundamental support: Citi Liontown defies odds and prepares to produce lithium – but it needs Chinese help International Stocks  Foreign buyers behind one of Chinese stock market’s best weeks in recent past US kicks off competition investigation into NVIDIA McDonald’s sales fall as customers reject the Big Mac for a snack  ]]>
Copper is the new uranium as a 2024 bull rally takes off. But can it last? – and stocks to watch https://themarketonline.com.au/copper-is-the-new-uranium-as-a-2024-bull-rally-takes-off-but-can-it-last-and-stocks-to-watch-2024-05-29/ Wed, 29 May 2024 01:19:50 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=698955 Unless you’ve been living under a rock through 2024, you’re probably aware that copper is booming.

Prices for the metal were up 32.3% YoY on Wednesday 29 May, per TradingEconomics, as fears of a global shortage compound bullish sentiment.

The rally kicked off earlier this year when reports hit the market stating Chinese smelters were reducing output based on lower margins. 

A look at 1Y price performance for copper prices at the start of Week 22, 2024 (Source: TradingEconomics)

We’ve seen Macquarie Bank issue a price forecast for copper as recently as May 24 predicting the price will rise another 14% through the rest of 2024.

Morgan Stanley has also offered its view in May that the global copper market, broadly speaking, faces a “perfect storm” for further upside.

Macquarie, however, also sees the copper market swinging back to surplus in 2026 – but analysts at big Mac only see CY26 prices dropping marginally as a result. To make matters more complicated, Macquarie then expects to see the price rise again in 2028. 

Its forecast for 2028 prices sits at US$11.5K/t of copper – well above its recent record high above US$10K/t. 

Copper traders typically see that latter level as a signal that it’s time for a bullish psychology.. 

That bullish psychology is very real right now on the ASX. Many copper juniors have shot up in recent weeks, and as for Macquarie analysts, they’re closely watching two smaller companies in particular: 29Metals (ASX:29M) and Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS).

It’s also watching the higher-priced Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR), trading around $9.53/sh mid session on Monday, May 27.

HSBC  also on board 

At the same time, analysts working for China’s HSBC bank have stated their belief the market is on the cusp of a ‘super bull rally’ for commodities which, of course,  includes copper.

While 2024 started off as a uranium story, it’s copper that’s come to be the much-watched darling material.. 

Like uranium, copper is largely a decarbonisation and ESG-focused investment proposition – the metal is needed for electrification, broadly.

That is as true for copper wiring in the walls of businesses, offices, and homes, as it is for large grid-scale operations requiring transmission lines.

Copper is also needed for wind turbines, solar panel infrastructure, EV batteries (and for larger components of the vehicles broadly), power grids, hydrogen electrolysers, and oil and gas infrastructure.

But not all analysts are entirely harmonised in agreement. 

Is Chinese supply really that bad? 

ANZ bank analysts said last week they expect a short-term correction to define copper prices – which we could be seeing as of May 27, 2024. 

On the most recent Friday session, a broad-based metals rally (also lifting prices for gold, silver and base metals like zinc) took a breather. 

But this doesn’t necessarily combat or challenge calls from HSBC or Macquarie – there’s still more than six months of the year to go.

ANZ’s bull case directly referenced copper mine closures around the world, further compounding upward effect driven by China’s reported decision to slash output from smelters. 

Whether or not this thesis proves to be as compelling as it’s put forward remains to be seen – especially because contrasting reports suggest copper in China is plentiful and there’s no dearth of supply in the world’s second largest economy. 

The Chinese economy is having no shortage of its own problems right now – particularly in the property sector – so whether the story of China’s own domestic supply will be taken as a signal impacting larger global copper markets is in the eye of the beholder.

ASX copper stocks to watch

What all of this means – questions around Chinese volumes notwithstanding – is that we’ve been seeing some pretty impressive performance runs from companies exposed to copper.

Perhaps the biggest mining story of this year, repeated attempts by Australia’s BHP Group Limited (ASX:BHP)  to buy out UK-based multinational mining giant Anglo American is itself a copper story.

In short, BHP wants Anglo American’s existing copper mine assets, as opposed to paying the higher costs of starting an entirely new copper mine, given the current lending environment where interest rate cuts have not yet begun (either at home or in the US).

But a lot of smaller – and more affordable companies – are also on the radar. Here are some ASX stocks in the copper space to watch.

All share data information is accurate as at close on Tuesday 28 May 2024.

Metals Acquisition (ASX:MAC) Share price: $20.74 Market cap: 1.44B YTD performance: +9.16% 1Y performance: 9.16%

Metals Acquisition (ASX:MAC) is a dual-listee on both the ASX and NYSE, and one of the more expensive picks on this list.

Its core asset is the 100% owned CSA copper mine in NSW which it picked up off Glencore around a year ago in June of 2023.

The company most recently teamed up with ASX-listed Polymetals Resources (ASX:POL) to form a “strategic alliance” with a view to synergising the CSA and Endeavour copper miens respectively – both located in NSW’s Cobar Basin, 5km apart.

This stock is a copper producer, pushing out around 40,000t each year, according to the company’s website.

Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) Share price: $9.49 Market cap: 4.34B YTD performance: +29.3% 1Y performance: 68.6%

Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) is another copper producer, but more affordable, and with the added backing of a recent Macquarie rating of “Outperform.” However, the stock is already at its price target.

The company’s claim to fame is its discovery of the DeGrussa copper-gold deposit some 900km away from Perth, WA. Using the cash that followed, the stock moved to Spain, picking up an A$2B+ project called MATSA.

The stock is also active in Africa overlying the Kalahari Copper Belt, one of the most well-known copper mining regions in the world.

Sandfire describes itself as a company leaning into the decarbonisation and renewables thematics broadly.

Castillo Copper (ASX:CCZ) Share price: 0.9cps Market cap: $11.05M YTD performance: +41.7% 1Y performance: -22.7%

Castillo Copper (ASX:CCZ) is a copper explorer as opposed to a producer and as such its share price premium reflects this.

The company has been a penny stock for much of its recent past, but YTD performance reflects the upside the 2024 copper rally has brought the microcap.

Its main operations are in QLD where it oversees the ‘Big One’ deposit near Mt. Isa. However, the explorer is also active in Zambia, where it has prospective assets overlying Zambia’s copper belt.

Castillo also now boasts the Cangai copper mine back home in Australia, described as one of the country’s “highest grading historic copper mines” with a JORC resource of 3.2Mt of ore at 3.3% copper.

American West Metals (ASX:AW1) Share price: 14cps Market cap: $72.4M YTD performance: -3.45% 1Y performance: 129.5%

American West Metals (ASX:AW1) is listed on both the ASX and the US OTCQB markets, a bourse closer to its operations in North America, both in the US and Canada.

The company’s major copper project is the Storm project in Canada, though, it also has the ‘Copper Warrior’ play in the midwest US. American West describes itself as a copper-zinc explorer.

American West released a maiden JORC estimate for its Storm project in early 2023, posting 17.5Mt of ore at 1.2% copper – lower grades than Castillo – but with silver also featured, albeit, at low grades.

It grew its stake in Storm to 80% back in September of 2023.

Alara Resources (ASX:AUQ) Share price: 7cps Market cap: $49.5M YTD performance: +64.3% 1Y performance: +137.9%

Alara Resources (ASX:AUQ) is an ASX-listed and Oman-based copper explorer that recently became a producer and exporter of copper concentrate.

The company shipped off its first maiden export of copper concentrate in late May of 2024, with over 1,000wmt of product being shipped to China under a 2023 deal with Trafigura.

The company also has its eyes on gold, snagging copper-gold acreage around Oman. Alara had long been targeting a mid-2024 date for first production – and by luck, now it could ride the winds of a copper rally.

In the background, the Omani government has recently been moving, in tandem with other gulf and MENA states, to incentivize hard rock mineral exploration within its borders to wean off an economic reliance on hydrocarbon industries.

Culpeo Minerals (ASX:CPO) Share price: 4cps Market cap: $6.3M YTD performance: +8.6% 1Y performance: -37.7%

Culpeo Minerals (ASX:CPO) is a nanocap copper explorer located in South America (and also shares an affinity for copper-gold mineralisation combined.)

Solely focused on Chile, the company has long been probing its acreage in that nation state for the copper hits it needs to bring development across the line to positive FID.

Its Chilean flagship is the Lana Corina project for which the company most recently flagged rock-chip samples at the Vista Montana prospect grading up to 2.62% copper.

At the time of writing, drilling remains underway on-site Lana Corina, targeting a 3km long corridor of target geology.

Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH) Share price: $1.07 Market cap: $153.7M YTD performance: -1.4% 1Y performance: -5.75%

Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH) is the last company on this list, and another copper player based in Chile. This company, however, is a relatively recent producer.

The company has three main projects – its Costa Fuego project, where the company has focused many activities across the last year, was recently expanded at the end of April 2024.

The company also acquired the Cortadera project in February of 2019, where it has a JORC estimate of 724Mt of ore for 2.9Mt of copper, as well as 2.7Moz of gold and 9.9Moz of silver.

The company, well along in its development journey, boasts the largest copper resource on the ASX.

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ASX Update: Iron ore plunge drives market lower https://themarketonline.com.au/asx-update-iron-ore-plunge-drives-market-lower-2022-06-20/ Mon, 20 Jun 2022 03:00:07 +0000 https://themarketherald.com.au/?p=530398 The share market spiralled towards a seventh straight loss as a collapse in iron ore and coal prices added to down-pressures

The S&P/ASX 200‘s grim run of losses continued with a fall of 45 points or 0.7 per cent.

The market traded in and out of positive territory for the first hour before slumping as iron ore shed more than 9 per cent in Chinese trade.  

Heavy falls in miners and energy producers quickly outpaced gains in banking, property and healthcare stocks.

What’s driving the market

Buyers sat on their hands after two weeks of heavy selling knocked 764 points or 10.6 per cent off the ASX 200. A market holiday tonight in the US capped trading volumes. Sinking commodity prices added to concerns.

“Commodities ended the week on a dour note amid ongoing concerns of a slowdown in economic activity. Sentiment remains bearish as central banks double down on their efforts to tame inflation with tighter monetary policy,” ANZ’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said.

Iron ore fell to a six-month low at the end of last week. Copper had its worst week since October. Crude oil lost almost 10 per cent for the week.

The selling in iron ore intensified this morning. Futures on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange were lately down 9.6 per cent after earlier falling 10 per cent. Coal and steel prices also fell sharply.

The falls helped drive the dollar back under 70 US cents. The Aussie was lately trading at 69.42 US cents.

This morning’s fall put the ASX 200 on track for a fresh 19-month closing low. Buying interest has collapsed as a coordinated central bank war on inflation threatens to tip the global economy into recession.

Commodity pressure overshadowed a better end to a challenging week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 bounced 0.22 per cent on Friday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged up almost 0.1 per cent.

“US and European equities showed sign of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week. Sentiment was not helped after Fed Chair Powell said the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability,” NAB currency strategist Rodrigo Catril said.

Going up

The heavyweight banks pared two weeks of sharp losses. CBA bounced 1.29 per cent from a 14-month low. ANZ firmed 1.23 per cent, NAB 0.42 per cent and Westpac 0.26 per cent.

Transurban bounced 1.61 per cent on news shareholders will receive a distribution of 26 cents per share for the six months to June 30.

Other heavyweights to advance included Wesfarmers +2.5 per cent, CSL +2.25 per cent and Telstra +1.45 per cent.

An earnings upgrade from retail property giant Vicinity Centres helped lift the REIT sector off a 19-month low. Shares in the shopping centre operator firmed 4.6 per cent after it raised its full-year outlook for funds from operations.

HomeCo bounced 4.11 per cent, Growthpoint Property 3.89 per cent and Scentre Group 3.41 per cent. Shopping Centres Australasia gained 1.49 per cent after acquiring five neighbourhood shopping centres from Primewest for $180 million.

A cash injection from a new investor lifted PointsBet 10.47 per cent. Financial trading firm SIG Sports Investment paid $94.2 million for 38,750,000 PBH shares at a premium to recent prices. The 12.8 per cent stake makes SIG the largest shareholder in the gaming group.

The battle for control of Infomedia hotted up with a third suitor entering the fray. Shares in the automotive software-as-a-service provider jumped 7.38 per cent to $1.60 after Solera Holdings offered $1.70 per share. The company was already weighing conditional non-binding indicative proposals from Battery Ventures and a consortium led by TA Associates.

Going down

Bulk metal miners fell as iron ore tanked this morning. Fortescue Metals slumped 7.15 per cent. Rio Tinto shed 4.87 per cent. BHP gave up 4.77 per cent.

Further down the food chain, Chalice Mining shed 9.51 per cent, Champion Iron 9.45 per cent and Whitehaven Coal 9 per cent. Stanmore Resources sank 12.86 per cent.

Energy producers also came under the pump as Brent crude added to Friday’s sharp loss. Brent futures were lately down 54 cents or 0.5 per cent at US$112.58 a barrel.

Beach Energy sagged 7.54 per cent, Santos 4.75 per cent and Woodside 4.54 per cent. Paladin Energy lost 9.62 per cent. Karoon Energy trimmed an opening double-digit dive to a loss of 5.59 per cent.

APA Group eased 1.42 per cent after inking a deal to build and operate a 20km gas link between the Hunter Valley and an existing pipeline to Sydney. APA will own and operate the Kurri Kurri Lateral to the Hunter Power Project, as well as a gas storage facility.

A downgrade from UBS helped push Bega Cheese down 7.93 per cent. The broker cut its 2023 earnings forecast, citing increased cost pressures.

Shipbuilder Austal dipped 0.94 per cent after winning contracts worth more than $300 million from the Royal Australian Navy, United States Navy and Government of Trinidad and Tobago.

Other markets

Asian markets faded steadily. The Asia Dow dropped 0.49 per cent, China’s Shanghai Composite 0.54 per cent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 0.84 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei 1.33 per cent.

US futures drifted lower ahead of tonight’s market holiday. S&P 500 futures declined seven points or 0.2 per cent.

Gold eased US$1.90 or 0.1 per cent to US$1,838.70 an ounce.

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