Investor Series News | The Market Online The Market Online – First with the news that moves markets. Breaking Australian stock market news, ASX 200 announcements and the latest ASX news today. Wed, 28 May 2025 04:23:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.1.1 The rise and rise in popularity of Aussie ETFs https://themarketonline.com.au/the-rise-and-rise-in-popularity-of-aussie-etfs-2025-05-23/ Fri, 23 May 2025 04:21:25 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=755103 Despite market tumult, the ETF industry has shown remarkable resilience during the first five months of the year. Compared to last year, which closed at $247 billion, the ETF industry is still in positive year-to-date territory.

Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.

The end of April marked the tenth consecutive month of $3 billion-plus flows into Australian-based ETFs, with many investors slowly rotating out of U.S. stocks and allocating heavily to international equity ETFs (around $2.1 billion), followed by Australian equity ETFs (as much as $1.7 billion).

Chris Weston, Chief Researcher at Pepperstone, joined HotCopper’s Expert Exchange series to slice and dice this for investors. He says ETFs are a huge part of the ecosystem, and that leveraged ETFs are growing in popularity.

On top of that, he suggests they’re an easy way to achieve benchmark returns.

In his view, Oz is seen as relatively ‘immune’ to Trump tariffs — relative to other countries.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on HotCopper, Australia’s largest stock forum, and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Finfluencer sets up to make investing easy and fun! https://themarketonline.com.au/finfluencer-making-investing-easy-and-fun-2025-05-02/ Fri, 02 May 2025 07:16:02 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=752916 “Let’s make this easy.” Queenie Tan is on a mission to make investing easy and fun for Millenials, Gen Z and all Australians.

I caught up with Queenie Tan to learn more about so-called “finfluencers” or influencers who share financial advice on social media may supercede traditional advice mediums in terms of popularity.

What is a ‘finfluencer’?

Financial advice content shared on social media is contributing to the growth of the “creator economy”, which is valued at more than $130 billion globally.

Queenie explores some of her journey that led her to becoming a finfluencer, and explores some of the different approaches taken by men and women when it comes to investing.

Queenie says there are apps and tools to support new and experienced investors towards achieving success.

“I really do like to keep my investing simple,” she said.

“I have an automation set-up and it automatically invest in ETFs, and I don’t even have to think about it.”

Queenie’s message

“Try not to get caught up in all the noise,” she said.

“If we overcomplicate things, we end up not investing at all. If we’re not investing, we’re losing money.”

Put simply, Queenie is a big believer in keeping investing simple and fun!

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Where to find opportunities amid the trade war turmoil https://themarketonline.com.au/where-to-find-opportunities-amid-the-trade-war-turmoil-2025-04-11/ Fri, 11 Apr 2025 04:23:54 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=749249 Trading markets hate uncertainty and Week 15 has been full of it, bringing a wild see-saw to the value of some of the ASX 200’s most dominant stocks.

“Don’t panic. The worst thing you can do now is crystalise a loss,” says Andrew Baxter.

Time to buy?

Baxter is an investment advisor, educator, author, and regular HotCopper commentator. In this interview, he discusses what’s been happening in markets this week – and how to handle the volatility as an investor.

We explore whether it might be time to buy the likes of CBA (ASX:CBA), BHP Group (ASX:BHP), Santos (ASX:STO), and Woodside (ASX:WDS).

Baxter also talks about Australia’s underlying inflation issues, the cost of living crisis, and what Trump’s tariffs might mean for interest rates.

For more info about Andrew Baxter’s Money and Investing series you can go to his regular podcast; read The Wealth Playbook: Your Ultimate Guide to Financial Security and The Wealth Playbook on Audible.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer: Wealth Magnet Pty Ltd (ABN 52 618 868 830) trading as Australian Investment Education is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR no. 1255231) of Grange Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 488609).

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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President Trump: Find an off-ramp! https://themarketonline.com.au/president-trump-find-an-off-ramp-2025-04-10/ Thu, 10 Apr 2025 07:20:52 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=749243 ‘Find an off-ramp!’. That’s the message to U.S. President Donald Trump from Sean Langcake, the Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.

“You can stare down the equity markets, but you can’t stare down the bond market,” he said.

Hear Sean Langcake’s take on the tariff turoil in this interview with HotCopper today.

We explore the fear that’s taken hold, the impacts on world markets, what that’ll mean for Australia’s ASX, investors, and also our interest rates outlook.

We also discuss what this volatility means for retirees.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Aussie’s poor financial literacy ‘a drag on wealth and wellbeing’ https://themarketonline.com.au/aussies-poor-financial-literacy-a-drag-on-wealth-and-wellbeing-2025-03-28/ Fri, 28 Mar 2025 01:51:24 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=747374 The Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey has identified the decline in financial literacy as an ongoing problem for our country.

Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.

This is entrenched in all ages and genders in Australia, with a key detail being that female financial literacy significantly lags behind males.

To discuss, HotCopper was joined by AMP Deputy Chief Economist, Diana Mousina.

Ms Mousina says financial literacy is “critical” because it helps people feel more confident about their situation; understanding how to manage your personal finances helps you to become wealthier, helps to make better financial decisions, and helps to save a bigger nest egg for an eventual retirement.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Geoffrey Watson: Good ASX governance equals superior shareholder returns https://themarketonline.com.au/geoffrey-watson-good-asx-governance-equals-superior-shareholder-returns-2025-03-28/ Thu, 27 Mar 2025 22:30:12 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=747215 Board governance has emerged in recent years as being critically important to the success, and survival, of ASX-listed companies.

A board with good governance is largely inoculated from crisis, whereas poor corporate governance can lead to a downward spiral that crushes investor confidence and rapidly crashes market capitalisation.

Director at the Centre for Public Integrity Geoffrey Watson joins Sean Boss to discuss.

More market news

Never-ending: And just like that, Trump’s tariffs are back causing more market chaos

Meet GeoGeorge: The HotCopper poster so accurate he got hired as an analyst

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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How will ‘Buying Australian’ really help the average Aussie? https://themarketonline.com.au/how-will-buying-australian-really-help-the-average-aussie-2025-03-27/ Thu, 27 Mar 2025 04:03:42 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=747219 Albo has recently challenged all Aussies to buy Australian. This may be a grand aspiration, but in reality, how do we buy more Australian goods?

Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.

These days, we are living in a rapidly changing world and tariffs declared by the new Trump administration are sending ripples through our economy, impacting our lives.

But, will buying Australian help you, and can it help our country?

To find out more, HotCopper‘s Sean Boss unpacks all things Australian-made.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Expert Exchange: Are we in for another market crash? https://themarketonline.com.au/expert-exchange-are-we-in-for-another-market-crash-2025-03-20/ Thu, 20 Mar 2025 04:44:50 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=746280 Uncertainty fuelled by President Donald Trump’s trade tariff moves has unsettled U.S. stock markets – and now it’s rippling through to Australia too.

Any volatility in the markets can be unnerving at the very best of times, so I asked HotCopper contributor, investment expert, educator, and economic author Andrew Baxter how to read current market conditions.

“We’ve had the talk of tariffs, we’ve had interest rate moves, we’ve had a lot of social programs going on – the dispute between Russia and Ukraine and the very public spat in the White House – it’s been a lot for people to digest,” Baxter said while speaking to HotCopper in the Expert Exchange series.

“Part and parcel of that is why we’ve seen the savage level of sell-off we have over the last week or so, as people come to grips with the news flow and try to make sense of it.

“Maybe we’re on the other side of it.”

However: “There’s always the potential for further downside”

“We’ve been in an incredibly strong bull market,” Baxter said.

“Since 2022, we’ve seen the market in the bottom left to top right trend.

“So seeing a pullback of 10% or 15%, I guess it’s like running up a hill: [When] you get to the top of it you’ve got to stop and pause for breath.

“We’ve seen that pull back [before].

“When you look at the underlying earnings, we’ve come out of an earnings season which has been largely solid, about 40% up on expectations… so the underlying machinery that’s driving markets remains intact.

“It’s the newsflow and the chaos around that, I think, which has really seen us on the back foot – so to speak.”

Andrew Baxter called it a “buying opportunity” – as long as the buying horizon isn’t too short. In this interview, he shares thoughts on what some of those buying opportunities could be.

You can hear more from Andrew on the Money And Investing podcast, right here on Hot Copper as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer: Wealth Magnet Pty Ltd (ABN 52 618 868 830) trading as Australian Investment Education is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR no. 1255231) of Grange Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 488609).

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Expert Exchange: Saul Eslake breaks down the risks of investing in the ASX https://themarketonline.com.au/expert-exchange-saul-eslake-breaks-down-the-risks-of-investing-in-the-asx-2025-03-18/ Tue, 18 Mar 2025 02:38:25 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=745780 Like any investment, share market investing has a risk and reward-relationship. Because of that, it’s always important to be very aware of the different types of risks at play when investing in the ASX.

In an increasingly volatile trading environment, well-known independent economist Saul Eslake says risk must be understood and not underestimated by investors.

As the ripples of Trump’s economic policies reverberate around the world, HotCopper invited Saul Eslake to share his takeout on the current issues and how investors may insulate themselves in uncertain times.

In the above interview, Eslake talks about the crucial factors causing the recent correction and ongoing certainty on the ASX.

He also speaks to the close relationship between the volatility of share markets and higher returns when compared to safer assets such as cash.

Eslake also gives his view of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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AMEC’s post-election demands: WA approval processes must move faster https://themarketonline.com.au/amecs-post-election-demands-wa-approval-processes-must-move-faster-2025-03-14/ Fri, 14 Mar 2025 08:00:02 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=745568 With the 2025 Western Australian election decided and Premier Roger Cook’s Labor firmly back at the helm, the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies CEO Warren Pearce says the State’s approvals processes must move faster.

In the wake of the vote, HotCopper invited AMEC’s Mr Pearce for an interview to lay out what the industry needs and expects in this new term of State Government.

Top of the must-do list, according to AMEC: A reduction in red tape.

In the interview, Pearce talks about the need for faster approvals for companies working through environmental and cultural heritage approvals processes in WA.

He also discusses the need for moves on renewable and gas energy project pathways; urges Australia-wide acceptance of uranium; and, discusses the likely impacts of a unionised workforce on Rio Tinto’s (ASX:RIO) Pilbara mines.

Pearce also shares his opinions on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Why interest rate cuts are bad news for the Australian economy https://themarketonline.com.au/why-interest-rate-cuts-are-bad-news-for-the-australian-economy-2025-02-28/ Fri, 28 Feb 2025 01:15:04 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=741836 With a weak Australian dollar, many people assume an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia is a good thing — especially for homeowners with mortgages.

However, the reality is the RBA cutting rates in the current economic climate could do more harm than good, with serious consequences for savers, retirees, renters, and the broader economy.

The weak Australian dollar and its consequences

The Australian dollar has been struggling for some time, trading weakly against the U.S. dollar. One of the key reasons for this is the sluggish outlook for the Australian economy. Our largest trading partner, China, is experiencing economic headwinds, including deflation and declining demand for commodities—an issue that directly affects Australia’s resource-driven economy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is surging. Global markets are pricing in strong U.S. growth, while Australia’s outlook remains uncertain.

This discrepancy weakens the Australian dollar further, making imported goods and services more expensive for everyday Aussies.

A weak dollar has very real consequences. Fuel, groceries, clothing, cars, and even airfares all become more expensive because Australia imports so many goods. When the Aussie dollar weakens, inflationary pressures increase — making life harder for everyone, regardless of whether or not they have a mortgage.

Why interest rate cuts make things worse

A common assumption is lower interest rates provide relief to homeowners by reducing mortgage repayments. While this is true for those with loans, the broader economic impact of rate cuts is far more complex — and often negative.

1. Lower interest rates further weaken the Australian dollar

Interest rate cuts make the Oz dollar even weaker because investors move their money to countries with higher yields, such as the U.S. This further exacerbates the cost-of-living crisis, as imports become even more expensive.

2. Stock market instability

Markets react to interest rate cuts differently depending on the economic environment. In this case, when the RBA announced a rate reduction, the stock market fell by about 2.5% over the following trading days.

This indicates investor uncertainty and a lack of confidence in Oz’s economic direction.

3. Housing affordability worsens

While lower rates help existing homeowners, they push house prices higher by increasing borrowing capacity. This makes it even harder for first-home buyers to enter the market. Property prices are already a significant challenge for many and rate cuts only serve to widen the gap between those who own property and those who don’t.

4. Savers and retirees lose out

Not everyone has a mortgage. Only about one-third of Australians have home loans. Meanwhile, another third rent and the rest are either outright homeowners or retirees living off their savings.

Lower rates mean lower returns on savings accounts and investments like bonds, which hurts those who rely on interest income.

Retirees, in particular, will see reduced returns on their superannuation and investment portfolios, making it harder for them to maintain financial security.

Instead of rewarding those who have been financially responsible and saved for their future, rate cuts can penalise them.

5. Rents won’t go down

Some argue that lower interest rates could ease rental pressures, but history shows otherwise. Landlords typically pass on interest rate increases to renters but rarely, if ever, reduce rents when rates drop.

Instead, cuts boost property values, which makes investing in property more attractive and further inflates house prices — keeping renters locked out of homeownership.

A politically motivated move?

There’s also reason to believe that the latest rate cut may be politically motivated. With an election looming, governments often look for ways to provide short-term relief to voters.

While lower rates may give the illusion of economic support, they create longer-term problems that could lead to prolonged financial pain for many Australians.

The government should focus on addressing inflation properly — by cutting unnecessary spending and encouraging productivity — rather than relying on cuts that artificially inflate asset prices while eroding the dollar.

Optimism for the future

Despite the challenges, there is room for optimism. The Australian economy has weathered many storms before, and with the right policies in place, we can find a balance that supports both economic growth and financial security for all Australians.

However, interest rate cuts are not the solution — they are a short-term fix that ultimately makes the economic outlook worse.

If Australia is to thrive, we must focus on building a strong, stable economy with policies that support long-term prosperity rather than short-term political gains.

Andrew Baxter is an investment advisor, educator, commentator and author, recognised for his expertise in trading, wealth creation and money mindsets. He is the founder of Australian Investment Education, host of the Money and Investing podcast, and is author of The Wealth Playbook: Your Ultimate Guide to Financial Security.

Disclaimer: Wealth Magnet Pty Ltd (ABN 52 618 868 830) trading as Australian Investment Education is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR no. 1255231) of Grange Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 488609).

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Expect major mining change should the Liberals win this WA election – starting with ‘a whole lot less red tape’ https://themarketonline.com.au/expect-major-mining-change-should-the-liberals-win-this-wa-election-starting-with-a-whole-lot-less-red-tape-2025-02-26/ Wed, 26 Feb 2025 04:30:00 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=742176 The Liberal Party is looking to dethrone the Cook Labor government when Western Australia soon heads to the voting polls on March 8, with the opposition promising sweeping changes in the state should they win.

While there are plenty of battlegrounds where Labor and Liberal will clash, a big one is the mining and materials industry – a sector HotCopper, of course, knows well.

In the build-up to the big ballot day, HotCopper’s Sonia Madigan spoke with Neil Thompson MLC today from the Liberal Party about what investors can expect for Western Australian businesses should the Liberals claim victory.

Above is the interview in video. Below is the full transcript of the interview.

Transcript: Neil Thompson MLC speaks to HotCopper

Sonia Madigan: Now, Neil, you’ve sent me a statement and it was – and I quote: “WA experienced record investment in our resources sector under the Liberals” and that’s not been exceeded in eight years of Labor.

Neil Thompson MLC: No, and there’s no greater friend of the mining industry than the Liberal Party WA and we saw under the Barnett Government we had up to $50 billion a year on capital investment during that peak period of investment. It’s never been exceeded, and whilst there has been significant investment in the mining sector in the last eight years, my great concern – and I talked to people in the industry – is the risks that have been embedded into our regulatory environment, the uncertainty, particularly coming from the Commonwealth but also just the cultural issues in the state approval agencies and the challenges we have in getting through that unnecessary red tape in the industry.

SM: Before we have a look at that, I did go to one of our key investment themes at the moment and that is, of course, AI, and I asked AI whether your statement is true and it actually came back as false. It said the Liberal Party did spend on the traditional material sectors of iron ore and LNG, but since 2017 under Labor the investment has continued but has also been especially strong in critical minerals and renewables.

NT: Ah, so what I was talking about there was capital investment, private sector capital investment. That’s definitely true, my statement is true: $50 billion a year. I mean let’s face it, if you’ve got a broken system and you throw more taxpayers’ money at the broken system and ineffective programs, that’s not delivering outcomes. If you’re trying to shut down the industry, for example with the Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act or the Nature Positive legislation that they’re trying to push through, it doesn’t matter how much taxpayer investment you put in. AI is a good friend, it may be there’s some taxpayer money poured into the industry through taxpayer-funded schemes, but in terms of capital investment by the private sector, it was record investment under the WA Liberals and it’s never been exceeded.

(Editor’s Note: Mr. Thompson later sent HotCopper further details on the above question, assuring “my statement is correct.” HotCopper has cited the statistics.)

SM: You mentioned there a couple of times concerns around red tape and difficulty for companies to get projects through to production. Can you tell us more about what a Liberal government would do to address that?

NT: First of all, I’d like to say we’re starting with unblocking the roadblock on uranium mining, we’re going to allow uranium mining comments again in West Australia, vital for our future energy requirements and vital for the world’s decarbonisation process as well. We have a moral obligation to mine uranium in West Australian and we’ll be supporting the uranium industry. The second thing we’re going to do is we’re going to do a root-and-branch review of the Environmental Protection Act. There were a number of reforms that were put through after the Vogel-McFerran Review that was undertaken by the Labour government, of which did come through, and we supported, but it didn’t go far enough and the sorts of things we will do, we will make sure, for example, are not only parallel approvals, but we’ll have deemed approvals which will allow for decisions to be made when time’s up in terms of the number of days. We’re also going to restrict those appeal rights under part four of the Environmental Protection Act to make sure only persons with standing can make an appeal, and we’re gonna go hard on those groups, those internationally funded lobby groups that come in here and initiate campaigns against our mining industry. If we look at the EDO, the Environmental Defender’s Office, we’re not gonna throw taxpayers’ money at a group that has been found by a court of Australia to be working contrary to the law in relation to the Santos project. We’re gonna go very hard on that and also look at the big money that’s coming in and supporting our groups. We want genuine appeals. There’s a whole range of other things where we looking at, for example, and you’re listeners will probably know the Social Surrounds policy. The Environmental Protection Act should be all about the environment, it shouldn’t be about planning, it shouldn’t be about Aboriginal heritage; those things are under separate legislation. We will institute what they call a statement of compliance so that if people get their approvals through the other piece of legislation, they don’t have to go back over it again through the EPA. The EPA should be making decisions purely based on Environmental Protection. Our focus will be on Environmental Protection. There are a whole lot of other things we’ll be doing that haven’t already been mooted and those have been announced by Libby Mettam, our leader, back in June, and we’re really proud to stand by a record on reducing red tape in this sector.

SM: I guess the scary thing is we start to lose companies to projects overseas, don’t we? So how can we attract more investment locally?

NT: Well, you know, that comes back to the original conversation around that issue about record investment. Investors will only invest if they feel there is a pathway through a reasonable time. People don’t have lazy capital. You can’t put money in there and say we’re gonna put in several billion dollars to a project and we have all these uncertainties. Aboriginal heritage in the state… there’s so much new uncertainty built in that the amendments for that failed legislation by the Labour government allowing for new information to be part of the process which can actually stop a project after it’s been approved. That is unacceptable, there has to be constraints on that and there are absolutely no constraints. People wanna know that they can get those land approvals, and those downstream processing opportunities in the sector as well. People don’t want the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads in relation to nature. That’s why I work very closely with my Federal counter, Jonathan Dunning – the future Environment Minister at the Federal level – and we are going to work very closely together to make sure our Federal legislation, the work we do between the state and the Federal government, we’re working closely together get those bilateral agreements and back in place, which is governments allowed drop away, so that we can get those approvals through in time, so investors could be certain once they get an approval, once they go through that process – and that process should be time-limited – they can then get on with the job and invest with confidence that they’re gonna have a future outcome.

SM: Now, of course, the Labor Party has such dominance since 2021. What does the Liberal Party need to achieve this time around to be able to make a difference?

NT: We’re out to win it. We’re we’re fighting, Libby Mettam’s doing a terrific job at the moment. I’ve never seen a leader of a party work so hard as Libby Mettam and I do commend her for her work rate, that’s just terrific. And we’ve got a great batch of candidates, you know, every single one of them is up to win. We know that there are a lot of undecided voters and whilst the polls will say a certain thing, the polls will say we’re doing really well, but maybe not quite good enough, there are so many people who haven’t made up their minds and I’m hoping, you know, talking about this today, if you’re in the mining industry, you I can’t see any case of voting for the Labor Party. They introduced an appalling piece of legislation that was gonna shut down the industry, especially exploration. If you’re involved in exploration, you are involved in prospecting, you’re involved in any of that early work, and [you’re a] smaller mining company, you were going to be shut down by that cultural heritage legislation. They only revoked that because of the work the opposition did. And of course, the farming community got absolutely motivated once they saw the regulations and it was terrific work that we did all together to see that removed. And that’s the DNA of the Labor Party, they do not support the industry as a principal and you could not get a better friend of the industry than the Liberal Party of Western Australia.

SM: Now Neil, I realised that you’ve been serving mining and pastoral in WA, your office is in Broome, but I just want to talk to you about the other sectors as well because our investors on HotCopper are interested in sectors outside materials like biotech, IT, real estate. What other policies does the Liberal Party have in its back pocket?

NT: We have talked to a lot of people and of course, we know that those sectors that support the industry are really important as well. There’s not enough industrial land, I am the Shadow Minister for Lands, and I can assure your listeners today that the day I become Minister, I’m going to be getting every approval that has not yet been made, every application and going through it with the directors general from that department to make sure that we can just fast track some of the things I’ve been talking, for example, to companies like FMG [Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG)] that are trying to get land to do that renewable energy project and develop the industrial development up there in Port Hedland. They just can’t get through the system. We haven’t done the work on native title. The state needs to do more work and the state needs to take more risks as well and start to underwrite some of these risks. So the industry can get going, we really need to have a much more can-do attitude in West Australia, particularly around the land access side. We also need to support our downstream process in industry, it is an absolute travesty we’re seeing in the energy sector with the lack of reliable energy in Western Australia; we have a policy in relation to providing 300 megawatts of additional gas-fired power to Perth and making sure that Cornana precinct has an affordable power and reliable power going forward. So we can continue to give confidence to minerals processors like Alcoa and like the BHP nickel project which has been put on hold. These decisions don’t get made in a day, to be clear. The problem is we have a real challenge in WA because people are not confident, they’re not confident that they can go ahead and do that heavy energy-intensive processing that we need to make sure that we have those battery precursors that are produced in WA for our future economy. So it’s vital we’ve got the energy policy. We’re gonna work on lands. We’re going to reduce red tape. Weed it out there so that we can get out of the way and make sure the private sector can get going and deliver for our future generations.

SM: If we can have a look now at our cost of living crisis, and I note that the Labor Party is offering $10,000 in incentives for tradies to come to WA, but isn’t that just exacerbating the problem we already have, that we don’t have enough housing?

NT: The industry needs the people, we need to people. We can’t just rely on fly-in, fly-out people flying in and out of NSW or even New Zealand. I’ve been on the plane a few times and met a few traders are flying in from New Zealand. We need the people, we’ve got a very big sector here. We are a world-class mineral sector, we could be and we’re not because of the restrictions of this government, we could actually have a lot more gas and oil production out of West Australia and we’ve just been holding that up as well. But we need the people here to do the projects we need, the people for the investment, but we just have to make sure we can grow fast enough. And that’s my job as Minister for Planning, we’ll be making sure there’s enough land available that we get our planning system going again, we get our housing system going again so we can deliver for the people we need for our mining sector.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Labor working to see WA mining ‘flourish’ with approval upgrades, critical minerals focus https://themarketonline.com.au/expert-exchange-labor-working-to-see-wa-mining-flourish-with-approval-upgrades-critical-minerals-focus-2025-02-26/ Wed, 26 Feb 2025 04:00:00 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=742175 Western Australia is heading to the voting polls on March 8, with the incumbent Cook Labor government looking to retain the state leadership in what would be a third straight win after strong 2017 and 2021 elections.

While there are plenty of battlegrounds where Labor and Liberal will clash, a big one is the mining and materials industry – a sector HotCopper, of course, knows well.

In the build-up to the big ballot day, HotCopper’s Sonia Madigan spoke with the Hon. David Michael, Labor’s current Minister for Mines and Petroleum, about what investors can expect for WA businesses should Labor be re-elected.

Above is the interview in video. Below is the full transcript of the interview.

Transcript: Hon. David Michael speaks to HotCopper

Sonia Madigan: We’ve invited the leaders of the major parties to present their case regarding what they’re doing to benefit ASX-listed companies and investors. Mining is WA’s major industry so it’s fitting David Michael joins us. Welcome David. So, how do you plan to stamp your mark on the mining and energy portfolio?

Hon. David Michael: Well, if I’m lucky enough to be the Minister for Mines and Petroleum after March 8, I want to continue to work with industry to make sure we as the state government have those policy settings right to ensure our mining operations continue to flourish in Western Australia as they have for many, many decades – mining capital of the world – and I wanna make sure we get those settings right.

SM: Talking about those settings we certainily hear from a lot of company leaders that approvals processes are holding back progress.

DM: We’ve made some great improvements in approval processes, we commissioned the Vogel-McFerran review, which I think we released towards the end of 2023, and all through last year we’ve been implementing those recommendations, including legislation changes to make sure that environmental approvals are as efficient as they can be without a negating the need to have strong environmental approvals. So, for our social licence to the community has confidence that we’re doing the right thing, both the industry and the environment.

SM: Well, do you agree that as things are now, it’s taking too long?

DM: I agree that we can always look to ways to make things more efficient. My own department, it’s something we’re doing in terms of of the Department of Mines of Demers, in terms of we’ve just rolled out a new system, resources online, getting some good feedback from industry, including turning around program of work applications a lot quicker, making it much more streamlined, but also things like we’re trialling eligible mining activity, which is that low impact exploration activity where we’re hoping to turn around approvals within one business day.

SM: Well certainly the cultural heritage legislation is causing smallcap companies problems and we’re hearing that day after day. Is that important to Labor?

DM: It’s important to get those settings right as well, and my colleague, the Minister for Aboriginal Affairs, Tony Buddy, is well aware there are issues and I know that our government will continue to work through those with industries and but also traditional owners, should we be re-elected on March 8.

SM: What are the industries that Labor is most focused upon in mining and what are the commodities that Labor cares about the most?

DM: Look, we know in WA that the mining of iron ore and gold and also the production of grain and wheat, are our big three industries in WA and we must always look to see what we can do to make sure that those approvals and those operations are as efficient as possible so we can get our products to market and they’ll always be very important to WA. We wanna make sure we have a diversified economy so as well as a whole host of other things in the mining sector, [we are] looking at the critical mineral space. The Geological Survey Finland a few years ago, and I say that cause I’m half-Finnish, did a report that said just for the first generation of decarbonising the globe by 2050, there’s not enough proof resources out there of lithium and nickel and those other critical minerals to do that. So we know in the future we’re gonna need a lot of these minerals that we have under the ground in WA. We have lots of it, we have some great minings and some great exploration happening looking for these minerals. We know there are current price challenges, but I really see in that critical minerals rare earth space, that’s where WA is really gonna shine. I see a bright future ahead.

SM: You mentioned there, of course, nickel and lithium – there is a downturn. With that in mind, is it perhaps time to look at uranium and the policy on uranium and the potential to bring jobs to that industry?

DM: We think the jobs are in the critical mineral industry. I don’t see a world in 10 or 20 years time when most of us won’t be driving an EV and we see them lots on the road. And, you look at some countries like Norway, where the EV uptake every year is increasing and increasing. That’s where our focus will be. WA Labour went to two elections now with a promise of no new uranium mines given there were some already approved and that’s not changing.

SM: But in this day and age, and with the power needs that we know are ahead of us, is it even sensible to be anti-uranium?

DM: In terms of those power needs, we are turning coal off by 2030 in Western Australia and we know renewable will be the way to go with filling those holes in the grid. And you saw just yesterday some great announcements regarding home batteries and those big batteries we are building down in Collie to fill that gap.

SM: Can that be enough?

DM: I think it will be, absolutely… with gas as an important transition.

SM: And I do want to talk to you about gas; what is the state government doing to help projects in the gas space?

DM: You might have seen an announcement the premier made late last year regarding gas projects and making sure that for industry and for our Community, we retain the reservation policy. Trying to make those settings right as best we can to enable more exploration and bringing more of our gas to market. Not only for ourselves, but we know gas is an important transition fuel. Especially for our friends, especially in South East Asia, like Japan, like Korea, to allow them to work to gradually get away from coal.

SM: So is this about allowing the shipping of gas?

DM: Obviously from the North West shelf that already occurs, but when we have these settings we are continuing the policy that a percentage does come back to WA – that’s something we wanna make sure we keep for our industries including the mining industry and that downstreaming, making sure we keep those policies intact.

SM: So, what other policies can you mention for other sectors and industries considering that we cover the board for investors across manufacturing, energy, real estate, biotech, IT, AI, telecommunication, consumer staples, you name it!

DM: Well, there’s a lot involved in that and I’d encourage everyone to have a look at this document, which was released yesterday on roger.cook.com.au. You can get this — this is our plan for our Made in WA policies. It includes things like vanadium and making vanadium batteries here in Kalgoorlie to be deployed especially in those remote on isolated grids in WA. It talks about manufacturing home batteries as well, which we’re hoping to do, but this goes through a large amount of those other industries not mining a petroleum rail, which are the things I know about things like tourism, biomedical research, all these things to diversify economy as best we can, noting that we know as I said, iron ore and gold and wheat and grain will be very important to our state. But we need to do more things. And the good news is it’s already happening.

SM: Well, before we go can we address the housing crisis? What is Labor’s solution going to be to that crisis given we’ve clearly allowed too many people into Australia since COVID-19 and that’s been under the federal counterparts?

DM: Well, again, you’ll see Labor has a suite of policies to bring more traders into WA, to build more houses as quick as we can. Obviously, we’ve had those other schemes to assist people with rentals, to bring more rentals back on the market, maybe from some of those Airbnb and those kinds of short stay accommodation… trying to get more homes on the market as quickly as we can; over 2000 homes built in the last few years for social housing to try to help with the waitlist. No silver bullet, all governments around the world, the Western world, are dealing with this issue, but we are throwing everything we can at at housing. And again, a lot of this is about getting more traders in to build these homes as quick as we can for West Australians.

SM: But then don’t they need houses too?

DM: They do, they do and this is why it’s a wicked problem that everyone is dealing with. So again, we’re we think we think we’ve got some good settings to try to resolve these issues as best we’re able to. And noting that every governor around the world is dealing with similar issues.

SM: Anything else you want to add for Labor’s case for the March 8 election?

DM: Well as the Minister for Mining and Petroleum, I’m incredibly lucky to have this role given mining is so important for WA and for our nation’s economy, but also for jobs for West Australians and they’re not just those directly working in the mining industry, there are lots more people who who might not identify that they work in the mining industry but they kind of do if you look at the mining services sector. We do an amazing job for the world in terms of what we export; we do an amazing job in the world in terms of those mining services we export around the world.

DM cont.: I just want to thank everyone involved from investors who help fund some of these projects, but also that great work that happens around the world.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Where Oz’s equity market is going under growing ‘headwind’ trends in 2025 https://themarketonline.com.au/where-ozs-equity-market-is-going-under-growing-headwind-trends-in-2025-2025-02-06/ Thu, 06 Feb 2025 04:50:36 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=738524 While Australia’s equity market put in a general show of strength through 2024, recording an 11% return to the start of November (better than the 8% of the past 20 years), its various sectors have been pulled in different directions by both positive narratives and concerning headwinds coming from offshore.

And while some of the ‘headwind’ trends are likely to continue – notably, questions around the strength of the Chinese economy and closer to home, the drag of domestic inflation – there are new ones to consider, such as a new U.S. presidency led by Trump.

At the same time, the drive towards clean energy, and new technological offerings is also likely to influence equity markets, largely on the upside.

Talking to HotCopper, David Harvie – Country Head of Sales for Saxo Markets Australia – reflected on the equity market’s performance throughout 2024 and shared his predictions and advice heading into 2025.

The landscape faced by investors in 2024

Generally strong returns were the most obvious overall trend.

“Anytime, anywhere, if an investor could sit down and say they had achieved double-digit returns, including dividends, in a portfolio, that’s a positive from an absolute perspective,” Mr Harvie explained.

He added certain sectors – such as banking – had also enjoyed a positive run, but warned Aus equities had also been burdened by both national and international factors.

“There were some headwinds as well: Domestic inflation, which we’re all acutely aware of, [and] commodity prices struggled,” Mr Harvie said.

“Those iron ore prices that we all watch very closely struggled, China has had its concerns, and oil has really gone nowhere.”

Investors should also be aware that the size of the Australian equity market – and what it “doesn’t have much of,” according to Harvie – will also shape returns.

“While our tech sector did really well, it’s just not big enough to have a material impact on the broader returns,” he said.

“If we flip it and look to the U.S. as a prime example, they were two and a half times that – or 25% – and that’s on price, not including dividends.

“Japan was in the ’20s with its accommodative policies, and European defence stocks are another example I’d point out.”

Another ‘golden year,’ but watch other commodities closely

One trend that was likely to continue into ’25 was the strong performance of gold; supply of this commodity remained tight, Mr Harvie shared, expressing confidence in the possibility of silver outperforming expectations.

“The divergence between the two might be worth clicking on,” he said.

“On the negative side, unfortunately, we still see struggles for the Chinese economy and we see knock-on effects from that.

“We see a supply glut for oil – so those more traditional resources may struggle in the Australian context.”

However, a standout trend for investors to keep an eye on Down Under was the performance of metals associated with the ‘electrification of the globe,’ such as copper, lithium, and other critical minerals.

“I think a lot of investors are just focused on the demand piece, which seems to be very strong when it comes to electrification,” Mr Harvie continued.

“Lithium as an example is probably something that one would – also on the flipside – have a look at the supply equation and how that’s playing out.”

What to expect from the ‘Trump effect’

Of course, Australian and global equity markets ended 2024 with a striking influence to consider when it came to economic and political shifts, with Donald Trump becoming U.S. President for a second time.

Mr Harvie noted the moves and positioning seen on markets even before Trump’s second term began were noteworthy in themselves.

“Certainly in my lifetime I cannot recall in general media a more active conversation about an incoming President, so I think that’s instructive, and I think that goes beyond the personality, and more towards the potential policy,” he said.

“The second thing [to note] is arguably the ‘smart money’ – institutional money and retail money – has started to position portfolios ahead of the inauguration.

“So we’ve seen a tremendous run-up in Bitcoin, for example, we’ve seen a tremendous run-up in AI, albeit with some pullback with DeepSeek over the last week or so.”

Regarding the knock-on effects to the Aussie market of potential and already announced policies, tariffs with China were pointed out as a major issue.

“If we think about it from an Australian perspective, if all of a sudden an embargo or trade restriction around one of our largest partners China, what will be the knock-on effect for us,” Mr Harvie said.

“That could be quite a hindrance, again, when it comes to our resource-rich market.

“What will be the impact to labour markets is if there’s a reduction in immigration or indeed deportation… that’s something I would point to as well.”

What ‘Make America Great Again’ really means

At the same time, some of Trump’s policy pushes – such as the suggested annexation of Greenland – reflected more fundamental concerns about acquiring and retaining essential materials to facilitate growth in domestic energy resources.

“He’s talking about annexing Greenland. Why? Because of that critical minerals piece there,” Mr Harvie said.

“And when you pull all that back, ‘Make America Great Again’ is another way of saying, let’s bring sovereignty back home, let’s bring resource production back home, and make sure we’re self-sufficient as an economy.

“And that’s happening globally. The struggle for the Australian market is we just don’t have the scale to be able to do that – we are so reliant on our trading partners.

“An investor here should be quite careful and sector-specific for the Aussie market, but also as we say… turn one’s eyes abroad and start to look at those other global thematic, [the] industries and sectors which should probably benefit from Trump 2.0, and those other macro-economic factors.”

The international tech sector’s dramatic year

Turning to trends among global tech stocks, Mr Harvie highlighted the fascinating (or horrifying, depending on your perspective) story of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, whose launch wiped out U.S. technology stocks including sector darling and market-leading marker Nvidia only a week ago.

The issue, he said, was that many of the top tech stocks were not prepared.

“Those stocks are almost priced for perfection… they’re priced for solid growth and lack of a player like DeepSeek coming along, and that’s a mini–Black Swan event,” he said.

“That’s why you saw prices take a tumble very quickly. On the flip side, 48 hours later, a reasonable amount of those prices has been made back.”

But the DeepSeek story might also give impetus to other companies wanting to jump into this space, he added.

“It also goes to the fact that where there’s super normal pricing power, we’re probably going to see – in fact, we’ve already started to see with DeepSeek – some of that attention towards [the narrative of] ‘how can other companies, other countries get in on the act?’,” Mr Harvie said.

For investors, such an event could provide guidance when it came to picking stocks.

“It’s back to investor basics 101: Where am I invested? What assets do I have? Where am I invested globally, and what themes do I subscribe to?” he added.

“That’s a top-down approach. The bottom-up approach is then obviously picking the stocks that live within that and ensuring that those stocks that one has picked represent an adequate proportion of one’s portfolio.

“If you’re over-indexing in Nvidia or whatever the case may be, you do run the risk of the next DeepSeek coming along and mucking around with your returns.”

Looking for the big trends worldwide

Looking at the equity market as a whole, Mr Harvie said the keyword – even if it was a tad overused – was “diversification.”

“I think that term gets thrown around a lot, and maybe as a trader or investor, we’re a bit blasé when we hear it,” he said.

“But if we think about it, how that translates is really tapping into what’s happening in the real world. What’s happening in the real world is nations are bringing capacity home, they’re bringing chip-making home, energy production home when they can, and that’s very relevant with large economies like the U.S.

“It’s also relevant in Europe: We’ve seen NATO countries leaning into their defence capacity on the back of what’s been happening with Russia, but also Trump coming in and demanding those countries spend an X amount of their GDP on defence, which is why we’ve seen that be such a strong performer globally in 2024.”

Alongside these macro themes would be the likely vibrant performance in precious metals, and the importance of energy sources and the stocks and sectors attached to that.

“My advice would be [to] go back to macroeconomics, look at those global themes and see how you can position your portfolio to best take advantage,” he said.

“Not just geographically on the map, but asking ‘where can I gain access to those underlying themes?’

“Then, look up and pick some individual stocks or ETFs from there.”

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Expert Exchange: Andrew Baxter’s 5 stocks and industries to watch in 2025 https://themarketonline.com.au/expert-exchange-andrew-baxters-5-stocks-and-industries-to-watch-in-2025-2025-01-31/ Fri, 31 Jan 2025 04:38:50 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=737744 The stocks and industries to watch in 2025 will be influenced largely by the return of the Trump administration. Let’s be clear – Donald Trump’s re-election will have a massive impact not just on the U.S. but the global economy and trade winds.

Inflation and interest rates will continue to be the two biggest factors dictating the health of the U.S. and Australian economies. The rate cuts in Australia predicted by many did not eventuate and there remains uncertainty as to when the RBA will deliver its first cut.

Extreme government spending and subsidies continue to fuel our inflation and while it may be tracking lower, it still remains outside the RBA’s desired bands. 

By contrast, the Fed cut rates twice before the election – one big and one smaller one. 

It added another 0.25% cut in the lead-up to Christmas.

But Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, warned against expectations the floodgates might open, projecting only two further quarter-point cuts in 2025.

A cautious approach remains the order of the day. Even still, there are many reasons to be optimistic about investing in the U.S. economy. The US is genuinely a global player and boasts a vibrant outlook under Trump Mark II.

Consumer spending, which is the spinal cord of the economy, has regained momentum after showing signs of wavering leading into the election.

Conversely, Australia continues to teeter towards the risk of a recession.

Australia has a very narrow band of markets which contribute a disproportionate amount to our economy. Given our close economic ties to China, that risk will grow if the Chinese economy also experiences a slowdown off the back of Trump’s policies.

With all that said – here are Andrew Baxter’s stocks and industries to watch in 2025, along with a couple of ‘wildcards’ not be dismissed.

1) Tech stocks 

 Tech stocks are expected to flourish in 2025, propelled skyward as the AI revolution gathers further momentum. 

AI will play an increasingly significant role in the global economy, and pressure is growing on companies that have geared toward using AI to start delivering.

 Job shedding has already begun and is expected to grow as more tasks become automated and companies look to reduce their wage bills.

It all points to the Tech sector having a third successive year of significant growth.

2) Bond markets 

 The Fed has confirmed predictions before Christmas that the pace of these interest rate cuts will slow.

Bond yields don’t necessarily fall when prices rise.

The Trump administration is expected to stimulate aggressive growth in the economy.

That growth is typically inflationary.

But if jobs shift from the public to private sectors, it will result in a rise in GDP and that will help service their crippling debt levels as well as keep a lid on inflation.

Tariffs don’t necessarily have to be inflationary either if they encourage companies to manufacture within the U.S.

Energy prices should be the real litmus test. If Trump can lower oil and energy prices, it will help take the heat out of the economy and ultimately encourage the Fed to further cut rates.

AB’s tip: TLT and TMF are my best long bond price ETFs with TBT for bond yields.

3) Emerging markets

Emerging markets represent really good value across the board.

India is an interesting one. They had their election earlier in the year which produced some volatility in the market. But the time is ripe to buy back in. 

Among Asian countries, India is probably the least vulnerable should China be hit with significant tariffs because it’s not a big trading partner with India.

Mexico no longer looks as attractive with Trump’s tariffs unlikely to be friendly toward them.

A word of caution, however. Conflict around the globe continues to weigh heavily upon emerging markets as does the lack of clarity regarding the handover post January 6 as to exactly what the U.S. tariff policy will look like. 

Until we know which countries will be impacted hardest, there remains an element of risk. 

AB’s tip: PIN is an exchange-traded fund Andrew has invested in.

4) Healthcare

Healthcare has been a mainstay of the U.S. election campaign with RFK Jr switching sides to join Team Trump.

He is poised to have an enormous impact on healthcare policy in the U.S.  Things have to change but they won’t change quickly.

 There are two aspects to the case for healthcare.

Firstly, there remains an ingrained system of unhealthy eating in the U.S., along with reliance on Big Pharmaceuticals. It’s a vicious circle of profitability – you don’t eat well and there’s always a prescription. 

It won’t be easy to address and dismantle and it will take a long, long time.  

But if the U.S. can improve things at the primary production level by reducing the chemicals going into food production and having more natural and fewer genetically modified products in the food chain, the longer-term benefits are key.  

The other aspect is that people are living longer, meaning a heavier reliance on healthcare in their senior years. 

Again, it’s a very slow-moving timeframe. 

Biotech is a subset of both tech and healthcare and it’s definitely an area that will continue to be quite ripe for the picking. 

AB’s tip: XLH is the broad market healthcare ETF worth following.

5) Home building

This is one of the mandates discussed in the run-up to the election. Republicans have control of both the House of Congress and the Senate. Hence they should be able to cut through much of the red tape that is strangling the building industry. 

The U.S. property market has been reasonably stable, due partly to limited supply.  

Existing homeowners are typically tied to 30-year fixed mortgages at around 2% to 3%.  

If they buy a new property, they are forced to refinance at around 6% and that isn’t anywhere near as attractive. It puts the brakes on building.

Additionally, housing approvals have been on a steady decline over the last three years. Like healthcare, change is not likely to happen overnight but as interest rates fall, it should trend in a positive direction. And we know that when you put money into the building space, it acts as a significant multiplier across the economy.  

AB’s tip: Lennar, DR Horton, and Home Depot are stocks to watch; the ETF to watch is XHB.

Baxter’s wildcard picks

Defence and Energy are the other two sectors to watch closely in 2025. The U.S. has been throwing enormous money into wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. But there have also been substantial cuts to Defence.

The Biden administration’s slashing of the AUKUS agreement from 2.3 subs built per year to just one is a prime example.

A resurgence in Defence spending could yet unfold to ensure a strong and robust America.

Energy is the other interesting one; not so much about the profitability of oil companies because lower oil prices don’t necessarily translate into profitability.

But if Trump is about getting those rivers of black gold flowing again, a lot of oil services companies like Halliburton that are involved in exploration and fracking could become pretty hot pretty quickly.

Andrew Baxter is an investment coach, leading trader, Dad and author of the ultimate guide to financial freedom, The Wealth Playbook.

He is also founder of Australia’s top trading education platform, Australian Investment Education, and host of the Money And Investing podcast.

Disclaimer: Wealth Magnet Pty Ltd (ABN 52 618 868 830) trading as Australian Investment Education is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR no. 1255231) of Grange Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 488609).

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Expert Exchange: How to approach Christmas spending amid the cost-of-living crisis https://themarketonline.com.au/expert-exchange-how-to-approach-christmas-spending-amid-the-cost-of-living-crisis-2024-12-24/ Tue, 24 Dec 2024 02:00:01 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=731254 It has been long understood Christmas is a time of year that can provoke anxiety, with research showing it to be one of life’s most stressful events, alongside divorce, moving house, and changing jobs.

And, in an economic environment shaped by sticky inflation and much discussion about rising costs, many Australians may be facing the festive season with trepidation and little cheer, despite the combined efforts of Mariah Carey, Father Christmas, and Rudolph.

However, according to consumer behaviour expert Dr Paul Harrison, there are several approaches to Christmas that can ease the stress of the period.

Dr Harrison – Unit Chair of Consumer Behaviour at the Department of Marketing attached to Deakin University Business School – said that to begin, it was important to understand the complexity of the ‘cost of living crisis.’

“When we talk about the cost of living, it’s not a simple issue, but a complex web of things,” he said.

“If you look at groceries for example, on average their costs haven’t gone up, but the cost of other basics like electricity has.

“And there are also gaps between low- and high-income households: Some people can continue to afford luxuries, while others are worse off, but this is important because we often compare ourselves to others.”

These comparisons – exacerbated by social media – tended to boost people’s sense that they were doing it tough; this was not helped by regular media discussion about the cost-of-living crisis either, he added.

In consideration of this, Dr Harrison said consumers needed to check their expectations, adding, “We have to adjust our understanding of what we can afford.”

In terms of financial tips to take with you into Christmas, the following five tips should help provide a framework to ease the financial burden.

1) Approach what you’re doing for Christmas with a critical eye, and focus on people, rather than expense

“The information we receive from advertising and the media creates expectations for how Christmas should be,” Dr Harrison advised.

“I think it’s about revising your thoughts on why you’re doing what you’re doing. Go back to what you want to do on Christmas, and prioritise your relationships and spending time with people.”

2) Don’t feel under pressure to spend a lot of money catering to everyone

“Often people feel the need to spend a lot of money catering to others because they have a need to be loved. But it’s important to understand ‘what I can manage’,” he added.

3) Avoid ‘buy now, pay later’ apps like Afterpay or Zip

“I would advise people to not get caught up in that if they’re struggling because it means taking on expenses that you can’t carry,” he said.

“The thing about taking on credit – and these platforms are credit by any other means – is that you’re pushing off the expense into the future, but the debt is always there. You’re just discounting the future pain.”

4) Be wary of how consumption by other people is presented

“Social media means we have much more access to other people’s lives, which often causes us to compare ourselves to them,” Dr Harrison said.

“What this does is set up expectations of what life is supposed to be like, and the market is very good at exploiting that.”

5) Keep in mind while buying treats for yourself can provide a short-term emotional high, it isn’t always practical

“Part of our revised approach to spending should entail recognising that you don’t have to treat yourself with everything,” he added.

“Often buying things can feel like a reward: If things are not going so well, we’ll buy a new doona (for example), and it delivers a spike of dopamine.”

With all this in mind, may the Christmas period be one of joy and peace for all.

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Expert Exchange: Gold charts will remember 2024 in history. Analysts see $3K/oz in 2025 https://themarketonline.com.au/expert-exchange-gold-charts-will-remember-2024-in-history-analysts-see-3k-oz-in-2025-2024-12-24/ Tue, 24 Dec 2024 01:21:17 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=730781 If you had any large amount of money invested in bearish bets on just about anything in 2024, you probably by now regret it. 

While we saw uranium prices cool off and battery metals (and rare earths) continue their price declines borne from a sluggish China and post-COVID world, gold has been the star metal of the year.

It looked like it could have been copper as the year got underway, but by mid-December, much of its 2024 upward price action had been reverted.

Of course, the copper megatrend is still probably a safer bet than not – prices are well above where they were before the pandemic. 

Take a look at the copper price chart for the last 10Y:

Copper’s 10Y chart shows a post-COVID new floor (TradingEconomics)

However, copper didn’t end up being the most important metal of 2024.

It came to be gold.

Compare the above 10Y chart to that for the safe haven asset:

Gold’s 10Y chart shows a record rise for one year (TradingEconomics) Perth Mint’s O’Donoghue outlines historic run

Geopolitics was the foremost dominant catalyst driving gold prices up this year, but we also saw a lot of gold purchases from the Chinese Central Bank (and other governments) as countries look to diversify to vary exposure to the USD.

This desire, outlined to HotCopper by Perth Mint General Manager Depository John O’Donoghue, was only part of why prices made the history books this year.

(Though, gold has gone even higher faster at other points in the past.)

“To the end of November, gold is up year to date [in AUD] around 33% [and] that’s outperformed the ASX200,” O’Donoghue said – but noted over 20 years, it’s more of a 10% return per annum.

O’Donoghue also noted gold has recently decoupled from its otherwise predictable habit of tracking inflation. Right now, we’re seeing it run above and beyond – with the question for gold traders probably being how long that can last.

But O’Donoghue saw clearly why gold is outpacing its usual growth in line with inflation.

“A number of factors are at play: Ongoing geopolitical tensions… concerns before the US election, we’ve also seen central banks buying… so that’s all contributing to the demand for gold which is pushing the price higher.”

As for the year ahead? O’Donoghue was reluctant to comment. Many analysts are making bold predictions for 2025, he observed, but said we’d have to “wait and see.”

Luckily: There are already plenty of predictions floating out there.

2025 outlook 

There’s truly been no shortage of analysts (and other individuals who like to forecast) making bold predictions for the price of gold through 2025. 

One is hard-pressed to blame them.

With the historical run we’ve seen this year, and with key drivers pushing up the price in 2024 not really going anywhere quickly, it’s hard to think otherwise. 

Here’s a rundown of some notable forecasts published in recent weeks, to give you an idea of which way consensus is heading.

Gold to hit US$3,000/oz in 2025 – Joni Teves @ UBS  Gold to hit US$3,000/oz by end of 2025 – Lina Thomas @ Goldman Sachs  Gold to trade at US$3,000/oz for parts of 2025 – Axel Rudolph @ IG  Gold to hit upper range of US$2,950/oz in 2025 – Henrik Marx @ Heraeus Rise +14% to average US$2,750/oz in 2025 – Nicky Shiels @ MKS Pamp  Gold at US$3,000/oz in early 2025 – Julia Kandoshko @ Mind Money  A run at US$3,500/oz is “doable” – Lobo Tiggre @ Independent Speculator 

It doesn’t take a genius to see that most financial analysts see gold rising further to hit the US$3K/oz mark (with varying levels of detail about when that will occur.) I understand this isn’t the world’s most exhaustive consensus-collecting exercise, but I also don’t think there needs to be one.

It’s easier to find bulls than bears, right now, put it that way.

And generally, the larger the size of a crowd expecting something in markets, the more chance there is of that thing happening – a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. 

Or consensus reality, if you will. And that consensus has widely discounted any kind of shock correction in gold prices any time soon. (Touch wood.)

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Here are three global stocks you should watch https://themarketonline.com.au/here-are-three-global-stocks-you-should-watch-2024-11-22/ Fri, 22 Nov 2024 00:40:05 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=726600 Taking a macro or global view on stocks can be educational and offer a different view on the economy. Alpha Ba, portfolio manager specializing in global and emerging markets equities with Pillow Investments, gives us his three global stock picks.

The three stock picks, which you can learn more about in the video above, offer diversification, covering technology, automotive and financial markets.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd. (NYSE:TSM)

Ba likes Taiwan Semiconductor, which is highly capital intensive. So it invests about US$30 billion a year in capital expenditures, Ba says.

“They do that to manufacture smaller and smaller chips, what we call advanced geometry chips,” he says. “And they do that for the likes of NVIDIA, for the hyperscalers like Microsoft, you know, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Tesla.”

TSM is up almost 250 per cent in five years and this year, shares have risen more than 70 per cent.

TSMC shares were last trading at US$194.87.

Ferrari NV (NYSE:RACE)

Ba’s No. 2 is Ferrari saying that, “if you cannot afford the car, at least on the stock, it’s attainable.”

Ferrari is at a EUR$87 billion market cap and its brand management and exclusivity are all major plus marks for the luxury car maker. Ba points out that the company has some of the highest margins of any auto manufacturer in the world, and he thinks it can get as high as 40 per cent. His numbers show that every dollar in sales generates 20 cents free cash flow.

His estimate is around 9-10 per cent revenue growth in the next couple of years with earnings pre share growth in the double digits.

He also points to the customization features, starting at EUR$100K to pick a different colour for a vehicle, makes the selling price much higher than the base price, increasing margins.

Ferrari shares were last trading at US$476.59.

MercadoLibre Inc. (NDAQ:MELI)

Ba calls MercadoLibre a blend between Amazon and Paypal in the Latin America online commerce sector. Sales are distributed between Brazil (45 per cent), Argentina (25 per cent) and Mexico.

It has added a credit business, Mercado Credito, for personal loans, online payments. “They’re increasingly taking share on the credit card business,” Ba says.

He points out MercadoLibre has a credit analytics system that “the Bank of International Settlement has said is much more powerful than the traditional banks have in terms of analyzing default rates.”

On the e-commerce front, Latin America’s penetration is still low compared with markets such as China and the United States, suggesting significant growth potential. Revenues are anticipated to double over the next three to five years, with earnings per share growth projected at 40-50 per cent.

Ba says that although the stock is considered expensive, its return on equity is expected to expand, justifying a higher valuation. Additionally, MercadoLibre faces fewer geopolitical risks compared with other stocks, which is another point that makes it an attractive investment opportunity for Ba.

MercadoLibre shares were last trading at US$2,051.52.

This article originally appeared on Stockhouse and was reproduced with permission.

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The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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What each US election outcome would mean for Australian companies & investors https://themarketonline.com.au/what-each-us-election-outcome-would-mean-for-australian-companies-investors-2024-11-01/ Fri, 01 Nov 2024 06:24:37 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=723563 We all know that what happens in the U.S. tends to ripple down to impact us here in Australia.

Next week’s U.S. presidential elections will be a major catalyst… in this interview, Hebe Chen, a market analyst from IG, talks about what each U.S. election outcome might mean for Australian businesses and investors.

According to IG’s A Trader’s Position report, one third of Australians have investment portfolios that are U.S. based, meaning the outcome of the election (and then markets) will have direct effect on Australian portfolios.

Trump vs Harris – Impacts on business & investment

At the outset, IG is making the following predications:

A Kamala Harris win would likely be welcomed by the broader market given her party’s generally pro-business and investor-friendly economic policies and the fact she is more trusted to handle the economy. However, certain sectors like fossil fuels and private prisons could face pressure under her administration. Meanwhile, a Trump re-election could spark initial unease and volatility across indices given his unpredictable governing style in the past.

Disclaimer: The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Investing in North American stocks just got easier https://themarketonline.com.au/investing-in-north-american-stocks-just-got-easier-2024-10-31/ Thu, 31 Oct 2024 07:24:42 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=720888 Investors can trade in North American equities from here in Australia more easily than ever before.

There are new platforms being developed to streamline processes and make investment simpler for fund managers.

One of these is by global investment bank, Canaccord Genuity. Canaccord has a dedicated offshore sales team platforming North American equities to Australian Institutional clients, with team members including Kasey Connick based in Sydney, and Matthew Smith in Toronto, providing 24-hour coverage.

It means Canaccord can connect Australian fund managers with their Toronto-based trading team for direct market access during the North American trading session.

And Canaccord’s worked with Iress (ASX:IRE) to streamline the order-placing process through Iress’s global fix hub.

Why Australians may seek more exposure to North American stocks…

In this interview, Canadian Securities Exchange director of listing development, Anna Serin, talks about why Australian investors may look to increase exposure to Canadian and North American company shares.

Disclaimer: The material provided in this video and article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice.

Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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