Dale Gillham, Author at The Market Online The Market Online – First with the news that moves markets. Breaking Australian stock market news, ASX 200 announcements and the latest ASX news today. Fri, 30 May 2025 01:09:29 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.1.1 Woodside breaks out: Is this the start of a long-awaited rerating? https://themarketonline.com.au/woodside-breaks-out-is-this-the-start-of-a-long-awaited-rerating-2025-05-30/ Fri, 30 May 2025 03:04:00 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=756037 Woodside Energy just got the green light it’s been chasing for years: The extension of its Northwest Shelf gas project through to 2070.

Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.

The Australian stock market didn’t waste time reacting as its shares climbed on the news. But this rise may not be just a one-day rally; rather, this could be the ignition for a long-overdue rerating of the stock.

Let’s be honest, Woodside Energy has puzzled investors for quite some time. Solid fundamentals? Check. A good dividend yield? Check. A P/E ratio that screams value? Also check. And yet, for too long, Woodside has been a stock full of potential that has underperformed. But that might be about to change.

The recent low near $18.60 appears to have formed a firm base, and with resistance overhead around $28, there’s serious potential for this stock. But beyond the technical aspect, this recent approval means the story has just shifted. What we’re seeing isn’t just regulatory success, it’s a renewed vote of confidence in Woodside’s long-term relevance in a changing energy landscape.

Despite polarising thoughts on fossil fuels, the macro trend is clear, and that is, gas remains vital. While it may not be a forever fuel, it’s buying time as the world ramps up renewables and nuclear.

And that matters, especially in Asia, where energy demand is exploding. Woodside isn’t just in the game, it’s strategically located, well-equipped, and now has the regulatory backing to lead the charge. This extension keeps it in the driver’s seat well into the middle of this century.

Another deep value play in this area is Santos. After bouncing from lows around $5.20, it’s now making a move toward $9. Like Woodside, it offers a low P/E, strong dividend yield, and exposure to the same powerful themes.

So, what’s the bottom line for investors? Woodside’s approval might just turn out to be the spark that lights a fire under a stock that’s been unfairly ignored. Combine strong fundamentals, shifting sentiment, and now regulatory momentum, and you’ve got a stock that’s ready to run.

In a market hungry for dependable, scalable energy solutions, Woodside and Santos look like they’re not only part of the answer, but they might also just be about to lead it.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week? 

The best-performing sectors include Information Technology, up 4.45%, followed by Energy, up 4.04%, and Consumer Discretionary, 1.34%. The worst-performing sectors include Utilities, down 1.84% followed by Consumer Staples, down 1.09%, and Materials, down 0.54%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Light & Wonder, up 13%, followed by Block, up 9.49%, and WiseTech Global, up 8.72%.

The worst-performing stocks include ALD, down 8.31%, followed by IDP Education, down 5.76%, and James Hardy Industries, -4.98%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

The All-Ordinaries Index posted another gain this week, rising just over half a percent, marking its seventh consecutive weekly rise. However, signs of slowing momentum are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore as the market remains locked in a tug of war around the 8,600-point level. 

This is no surprise given the current volatile global trade environment, where last week’s proposed 50% tariff on Europe was followed by its swift pause.

With investors on edge, it’s no wonder the market stalled at this critical resistance level.

It’s likely the ‘big end of town’ set themselves up for the next move up during the pullback earlier this year, capitalising on undervalued opportunities.

To sustain this current rally, the market must break decisively above the 8,600 level, signalling further upside potential.

Until that happens, the probability of a pullback continues to grow, with 8,375 as the first key support level to watch. If selling pressure increases, a deeper retreat to 8,170 or even 8,000 could unfold in the weeks ahead.

For now, caution is paramount. Chasing the market rally at these levels comes with elevated risks, especially as momentum fades and sellers start to emerge. However, a pullback could offer a much-needed reset, creating fresh opportunities for patient investors.

As always, the best opportunities tend to emerge when others are stepping back. Stay disciplined and keep the bigger picture in mind.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer:While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Australia stands tall: RBA cuts rates as US credit rating slips https://themarketonline.com.au/australia-stands-tall-rba-cuts-rates-as-us-credit-rating-slips-2025-05-23/ Fri, 23 May 2025 05:56:35 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=755127 With the RBA announcing a 25-basis point rate cut, the nation’s economic future just got a little brighter. Homeowners are seeing relief as mortgage rates edge down, and businesses are gearing up for what could be a transformative period of growth.

But the timing of this move is what makes it so powerful. Just as Australia is easing rates to support growth, the United States has been hit with a credit downgrade from Moody’s. Stripped of its prized AAA rating, the U.S. is now sitting at AA1 amid ballooning deficits and political gridlock.

That contrast couldn’t be sharper.

While America’s fiscal credibility is under pressure, Australia’s AAA rating remains untouched, and that’s making global investors take notice. It’s more than a badge of honour. In a market desperate for stability, it’s a beacon.

With net debt at just 31.7% of GDP, far below levels in most advanced economies, Australia is now seen as one of the few remaining low-risk, high-potential destinations for global capital.

We’re already seeing the effects: UBS Sydney Managing Director Clinton Wong stated, “We have seen an uptick of global fund managers trading into Australian stocks.”

Meanwhile, the RBA isn’t just responding to domestic pressures, it’s playing the long game. By cutting rates to 3.85%, it’s keeping its options open for future moves, preserving flexibility if the global economy continues to deteriorate. It’s a move that strengthens Australia’s positioning just as others falter.

For investors, the opportunities are stacking up. The ASX offers compelling value, particularly in banking and infrastructure. For homeowners, stabilising property prices and falling interest rates are creating a rare window to build wealth with confidence.

In a world where the biggest economies are losing ground, Australia is holding steady and standing tall.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week? 

The best performing sectors include Communication Services, up over 2%, followed by Information Technology and Healthcare, both up over 0.5%. The worst performing sectors include Energy, down over 2%, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Materials, both down over 0.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Technology One, up over 14%, followed by Evolution Mining, up over 12%, and Northern Star Resources, up over 9%.

The worst-performing stocks include Pilbara Minerals, down over 13%, followed by Mineral Resources, down over 10%, and Paladin Energy, down over 8%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market? 

The All-Ordinaries Index extended its winning streak this week, rising just over half a per cent and notching its sixth consecutive weekly gain.

But beneath the surface, signs of a slowdown are starting to emerge.

The weekly trading range has narrowed, and volumes have pulled back, both subtle signals that momentum may be fading.

Adding to this cautious tone, the index briefly pushed above the key 8,600 level but failed to hold it. This inability to break through with conviction reinforces that the 8,600 level is a hurdle.

So, with the rally showing signs of exhaustion, a pullback now looks not just possible, but likely. And after six straight weeks of gains, it’s arguably overdue.

For those grappling with FOMO after the market’s strong run, this may not be the moment to jump in. Entering at these elevated levels carries heightened risk, especially as signs of profit-taking begin to surface. If selling pressure does pick up, keep a close eye on 8,375 as the first key support level where buyers might step in. Should that level give way, the next likely area of interest sits around 8,168.

The good news? A healthy pullback could clear the way for the next run-up. Once sellers have played their hand and support levels hold, the market could present fresh opportunities for those who’ve stayed patient.

This rally isn’t over, but timing will be everything.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer:While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Trump’s tariff bombshell sends markets spinning. Opportunity or orchestration? https://themarketonline.com.au/trumps-tariff-bombshell-sends-markets-spinning-opportunity-or-orchestration-2025-04-11/ Fri, 11 Apr 2025 02:04:47 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=749415 Donald Trump’s latest tariff bombshell has shaken global markets and it’s raising serious questions. Was this chaos just bad policy… or something more calculated?

Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.

It might sound like a conspiracy theory, but the facts tell a story worth watching.

In just one week, the U.S. slapped jaw-dropping 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, sending markets into a tailspin. Then, just as quickly, Trump announced a 90-day pause for most nations, but not China.

In fact, he hiked China’s tariff again, this time to 125%.

The result? Massive volatility. Markets tanked, then soared with the S&P 500 posting one of its biggest single-day gains since World War II.

For the average investor, it was a rollercoaster. But for those positioned to profit from sudden swings? It was a goldmine.

So, was this chaos accidental or engineered?

History shows dramatic policy shifts often benefit those with foresight or insider access. Trump’s unpredictable approach to tariffs isn’t just policymaking, it’s market-making. And for those in the know, volatility like this is the perfect playground.

What does this mean for investors? It’s a brutal reminder relying on global stability is a risk. In this environment, the old “buy and hold” playbook looks dangerously outdated. Instead, smart money is going where the action is by adopting active strategies gained from a quality education that can flex with fast-moving markets.

Because in a world where headlines move billions and policy is inseparable from profit, one rule stands above all: Adapt or be left behind.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week? 

The best-performing sectors include Information Technology, up over 7%, followed by Communication Services, up over 3%, and Utilities, up over 2%. The worst performing sectors include Energy, down over 2%, followed by Healthcare, down over 1%, and Materials, slightly down under 0.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX 100 include WiseTech Global, up over 13%, followed by Reece Limited and Telix Pharmaceuticals, both up over 12%.

The worst performers include Mineral Resources, down over 10%, followed by Worley Limited, down over 9%, and Lendlease, down over 6%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market? 

This week was nothing short of a rollercoaster with classic Trump-era theatrics in full swing. It all began with reciprocal tariffs that quickly spiralled into a tit-for-tat exchange: China fired back, then the U.S. responded again.

And, just when markets thought they’d caught their breath, another round from China prompted final, headline-grabbing 125% tariffs from the U.S.

If this were a drama series, we’re still in the pilot episode – so grab your popcorn.

The market reaction was just as dramatic.

Monday saw the sharpest selloff since the early days of COVID-19, sending shockwaves through investors and sparking widespread capitulation.

But just as panic took hold, Thursday flipped the script all over again.

A surprise announcement from Trump pausing the tariffs ignited a powerful rally, with the market surging more than 4.5%. While it didn’t quite match the 9.9% rebound seen in the U.S., it was a strong comeback.

By Thursday’s close, the market had clawed its way to a modest 0.85% weekly gain – an outcome few would’ve predicted earlier in the week.

From a technical standpoint, the 7,300-level held firm, acting as a critical support zone backed by a long-term momentum line. However, the buyers couldn’t break through the 8,000-point ceiling, which now stands as the next major hurdle in confirming the strength of this rally. Until then, volatility is likely to persist, with the 7,800 level serving as near-term support to watch. The question remains – are buyers showing conviction, or simply taking advantage of a brief window?

Information Technology and Communication Services led the bounce, but this week wasn’t about sectors – it was about sentiment. Markets were reacting to a deeper, more concerning threat: the risk of a global economic slowdown, fuelled by spiralling trade tensions.

In times like these, all eyes stay glued to U.S. policy, because the old saying still holds: When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Market turmoil: Are Trump’s tariffs a repeat of the 1930s trade war? https://themarketonline.com.au/market-turmoil-are-trumps-tariffs-a-repeat-of-the-1930s-trade-war-2025-04-04/ Fri, 04 Apr 2025 01:22:57 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=748398 Donald Trump’s latest wave of tariffs is sending shockwaves through world economies, drawing comparisons to the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s.

Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.

Back then, protectionist policies triggered a global trade war, deepened the Great Depression, and led to nearly a decade of stagnant stock market growth. Long-term investors were left watching their portfolios go nowhere for years. So, are we heading down the same path?

And more importantly, is it time to rethink your investment strategy?

History offers some clear warning signs.

The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 slapped higher tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods. The world retaliated, trade collapsed, and what started as a financial crisis spiralled into a prolonged economic disaster.

The Dow Jones paid the price, failing to break its 1937 high until 1946.

Why? Because slowing global trade creates weaker economic conditions, and markets have always thrived on growth – not stagnation.

Fast forward to Trump’s first presidency in 2018, when tariffs were again the weapon of choice. The result? The Dow Jones found itself stuck in a sideways grind around 25,000 for over four years. The pattern is clear – tariffs slow down future stock gains. So, what’s your plan to navigate what could be another era of sluggish returns?

The old buy-and-hold strategy might not be your best bet in the years ahead. Instead, a more active approach could be the key. And before you think this requires a PhD in rocket science, think again. A few simple rules and the right education can help you ride the market’s upswings while sidestepping inevitable downturns.

If history is about to repeat itself, wouldn’t you rather be prepared?

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week? 

The best-performing sectors include Communication Services up over on1%, followed by Utilities and Healthcare, both up under half a percent. The worst-performing sectors in Week 14 include Materials and Energy, both down over 5%, followed by Information Technology, down over 2%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, up over 5%. followed by Commonwealth Bank, up over 3%, and Coles, up over 2%.

The worst-performing stocks include Pilbara Minerals, down over 21%, followed by Mineral Resources, down over 16%, and IGO Limited, down over 15%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market? 

Sellers took control this week, driving the All-Ordinaries Index down more than 2.5% on Trump’s announcement of global reciprocal tariffs.

Right now, any negative news is shaking investor confidence, particularly among institutional players, seeing the index swinging like a yoyo.

But is there a silver lining hidden in plain sight? Let’s break it down.

More market news

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Despite heightened volatility and global uncertainty, the All Ords has yet to break its March 14 low. With the level of selling pressure, you’d expect that low to have been taken out by now to resume the downtrend.

But it hasn’t – and that’s a crucial signal.

If the index can hold above 7,949.90 despite the current turmoil, it would suggest that a major low is in place and that the market is setting up for an upward move towards the 8,400 level.

However, if sellers push and close the index below 7,949.90, we could see further short-term indecision before support forms over the next couple of months. A decisive break below 7,800 would open the door to a deeper pullback toward 7,400, although this remains the less likely scenario.

Regardless of the broader market swings, there are still standout stocks bucking the trend. The key is digging in and finding those outlier opportunities.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Big pharma targets Australia. Could tariffs break the market? https://themarketonline.com.au/big-pharma-targets-australia-could-tariffs-break-the-market-2025-03-21/ Fri, 21 Mar 2025 05:31:59 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=746494 What if the cost of life-saving medicine in Australia skyrocketed overnight – all because of a trade war?

That’s the risk as Big Pharma, led by U.S. giants like Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and Merck push Washington to slap tariffs on Australian pharmaceuticals.

Their target? The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), which they claim “undervalues” American drug innovations. But this isn’t just about trade – it’s about pricing power, and Australian consumers could end up paying the price.

For decades, the PBS has ensured Australians can access affordable medicine, negotiating fair prices to keep costs down. Meanwhile, the top U.S. drug companies made $176 billion in profits in 2022; hardly struggling. Yet, they argue the PBS restricts their ability to charge market rates. In reality, it prevents price gouging, a practice that has made U.S. drug prices among the highest in the world.

If tariffs go ahead, the consequences could ripple through the Australian economy. ASX-listed pharmaceutical giants like CSL, Cochlear, and ResMed, which rely on smooth trade with the U.S., could see costs rise and margins shrink.

Aussie investors would feel the impact, and higher drug prices could strain an already burdened healthcare system, especially as Australia’s population ages.

But Australia isn’t backing down. Trade experts say the U.S. is unlikely to sanction a key ally over pharmaceuticals, and the Albanese government has vowed to defend the PBS. Still, this fight goes beyond trade – it’s about ensuring life-saving medicines remain a right, not a privilege.

And that’s a battle Australia can’t afford to lose.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up over three per cent, followed by Financials and Healthcare, both up over 2%. The worst performing sectors include Consumer Staples, slightly down, followed by Materials, up just under 1% and Consumer Discretionary, up over one per cent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Block Inc., up over 11%, followed by Challenger Limited, up over 10%, and IGO Limited, up over 8%.

The worst-performers include James Hardie Industries, down 7%, followed by Endeavour Group, down over 4% and ALS Limited, down over 3%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market? 

Buyers roared back into the stock market this week, driving the All Ordinaries Index up over 1.5%. This marks the first positive week over the last five, with the 8,000-point level acting as a key support. But is this the start of a powerful rebound – or just a head fake before another leg down?

A decisive break above 8,200 could ignite real momentum, shifting the tide in favour of the bulls. But if 8,000 cracks, the next key battleground lies at 7,800, where buyers will need to prove their strength.

Fuelling this week’s surge are strong gains in materials and financials, giving the rally real substance.

Energy and utilities took the lead, signalling a rotation into essential, defensive plays, while tech stocks got hammered as investors shunned speculative bets. With U.S. tariff news adding uncertainty, the market’s shift toward stability speaks volumes.

One thing is clear: Opportunity is knocking.

The brutal sell-off in banking stocks looks like an overreaction, creating prime conditions for sharp investors to pounce on undervalued plays.

This is the kind of market where fortunes are made. Quality stocks are trading at a discount, and those who are prepared won’t just watch from the sidelines – they’ll take action.

As I’ve said before though, being ready is only half the battle. The moment to act might have just arrived.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Is Rio Tinto the market’s best-kept secret? https://themarketonline.com.au/is-rio-tinto-the-markets-best-kept-secret-2025-03-14/ Fri, 14 Mar 2025 01:53:39 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=745531 Could Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) be one of the most overlooked opportunities in the Australian stock market right now?

Goldman Sachs certainly thinks so, calling it undervalued and predicting over 20% upside in the next year. Add in a fully franked dividend yield of 5.5%, and it seems like a no-brainer.

But the real story goes beyond valuation and dividends – there’s a shake-up brewing that could send RIO’s share price soaring, and it has to do with listing.

Activist investor Palliser Capital wants Rio to ditch its costly U.K. dual listing, arguing it has drained $50 billion from shareholders. If Rio follows BHP’s lead and consolidates in Australia, it could unlock massive value – just as BHP’s shares jumped over 10% after its restructure in 2022.

Goldman is also bullish on Rio’s growing copper production, expected to outpace BHP. With electrification and infrastructure spending driving demand, copper prices could hit $10,200/t in Q3 2025, boosting RIO’s margins.

Technically, Rio has been trading between $114 and $124 since last October, with strong buying support at the lower end. This range-bound action suggests a buildup of pressure, and a breakout above $124 could trigger a sharp rally toward long-term resistance at $136. Historically, similar breakouts have led to sustained upward moves, however, if $124 holds as resistance, Rio may remain range-bound or retest lower levels before its next major move.

So, with undervaluation, a structural shift, and surging copper demand, Rio looks primed for upside. But will the market wake up to the opportunity?

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week? 

The best-performing sectors include Utilities, up over 1%, followed by Energy, up over 0.5%, and Real Estate, slightly down under 0.5%.

The worst performing sectors include Information Technology, down over 5%, followed by Healthcare, down over 4%, and Discretionary, down over 3%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Vivan Energy Group, up over 4%, followed by APA Group and Mineral Resources, both up over 3%. The worst performing stocks include Qantas Airways, down 11%, followed by Flight Centre, down over 9%, and Pro Medicus, down over 8%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market? 

Sellers have dominated this week, pushing the All Ords down over 2% and extending its slide to more than 10% from its February peak – officially putting the market in correction territory. But could there be a silver lining?

Historically, outside of COVID-19, a 10% correction often signals the end of a downtrend and the point where buyers step in. What makes this drop particularly interesting is its speed. The last five corrections of this magnitude took at least two months – sometimes up to a year – to play out. This time, it has happened in under four weeks.

Why does that matter? The lack of buyers during the sell-off suggests the recovery could be just as fast. Typically, prolonged corrections unfold in lower waves, with weak buyers meeting strong sellers. But when there are no buyers at all, sharp declines are often followed by equally sharp rebounds.

So, with the market now testing the key 7,900 support level, buyers could soon emerge, creating the potential for a rapid turnaround. If 7,900 holds, those prepared could take advantage of a swift rebound.

If it breaks, then 7,500 is the next major level where buyers may step in.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Australia’s golden opportunity amid the global trade chaos https://themarketonline.com.au/australias-golden-opportunity-amid-the-global-trade-chaos-2025-03-07/ Fri, 07 Mar 2025 00:52:58 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=744573 What if Trump’s trade war isn’t just economic chaos – but Australia’s golden opportunity?

While the U.S., China, Mexico, and Canada escalate their trade war with tit-for-tat tariffs, Australia finds itself in a unique position to capitalise. With supply chains shifting, the nation’s strength in key industries – where its quality and capacity already rank among the best – could give it a significant competitive edge.

Take agriculture – China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, including soybeans and pork, will likely force Chinese importers to seek alternative suppliers. And who’s better positioned than Australia, a major trade partner with an abundance of high-quality beef, wheat, and dairy?

With American goods becoming pricier, Australian exporters are set to gain a larger share of one of the world’s biggest consumer markets. A notable ASX player worth watching in this space is Elders Limited (ASX: ELD).

Then there’s energy. China’s push to stabilise growth includes issuing 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to fuel consumer spending and industrial activity. This increased economic momentum is expected to drive up demand for Australian liquefied natural gas, already a key pillar of the nation’s exports. As a result, ASX-listed energy stocks may finally see a long-awaited resurgence after years of underperformance.

And it doesn’t stop there. Australia’s financial sector could also benefit as rising export demand fuels business investment. More investment means a greater need for financing, potentially lifting stocks and injecting fresh optimism.

Of course, much depends on China’s execution. But far from being collateral damage in a global trade war, Australia could emerge as one of the biggest winners – its economy strengthened, not shaken.

If both materials and financials align, the Australian market could be in for a year of surprising growth, driven by opportunity rather than disruption.

Best and worst sectors this week

The best performing sectors include Information Technology, Materials, and Communication Services, all up over 1%. The worst performing sectors include Energy, down over 5%, followed by Staples, down over 4%, and Utilities, down over 3%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include REA Group, up over 7%, followed by Evolution Mining and Cochlear, both up over 6%. The worst include Treasury Wines, IDP Education, and Woodside, all down over 7%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market? 

Buyers were in short supply this week as sellers maintained their grip, dragging the All Ordinaries down more than 1%.

What makes this decline particularly notable is it marks the index’s first three-week losing streak since 2023. But time isn’t the only significant factor.

For the first time since September 2023, the market has closed more than 6% lower. What’s even more intriguing is how closely this mirrors past market behaviour. Back then, when the index last fell over 6%, it had previously rebounded from the same key 7,100 level, twice before, in March 2023 and December 2022.

Now, a similar pattern is unfolding. The index has already bounced twice from 8,400 points, first in November and again in December 2024. If history repeats, will this third test be the catalyst for a turnaround? The September 2023 decline ultimately became a major inflection point, leading to a 20% rally.

With reporting season behind us and April historically being a strong month for the index, this could be the beginning of another significant move higher. So, if buyers step in at 8,400, we might be on the verge of one of the year’s best opportunities.

However, if selling pressure breaks through the 8,400-point level decisively, the next key support level to watch is 7,900.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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South32 in the spotlight as US tariff talks heat up https://themarketonline.com.au/south32-in-the-spotlight-as-us-tariff-talks-heat-up-2025-02-14/ Fri, 14 Feb 2025 00:59:08 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=739978 The Australian aluminium industry stands at a crossroads as the U.S. flirts with sweeping tariffs on aluminium imports, putting South32 (ASX:S32) in the spotlight.

Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.

Is this a moment for Australia to prove its resilience, or are we headed into a looming disaster for its prized producer?

Australia is the world’s largest alumina exporter and the seventh-largest aluminium producer, raking in $15 billion in export earnings in 2023 and supporting over 60,000 families.

Yet, despite this global footprint, only 10% of its aluminium exports go to the U.S., making up just 2.5% of America’s total imports.

So why is the U.S. targeting Aussie aluminium? Peter Navarro, a key Trump trade adviser, claims it’s “killing the U.S. market.” But let’s be real here – Australia’s small slice of the pie isn’t the root of America’s aluminium woes. Analysts argue domestic inefficiencies are the real culprit, not competition from Down Under.

This puts South32 in a crucial position. As one of Australia’s largest aluminium producers, the proposed tariffs present both challenges and opportunities. While losing access to the U.S. market would sting, South32’s diverse operations across multiple regions and commodities could help offset the blow.

Looking at the chart, South32 is holding strong. Twice finding support around $2.70, the stock now trades above $3.30. A breakout past $3.60 could see it test $4, while a slip below $3.30 might bring $2.70 back into play.

Tariffs or not, Oz’s aluminium sector is no stranger to headwinds. The real question is—can it pivot and adapt in time?

South32’s ability to navigate shifting trade dynamics might just hold the key.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week? 

The best-performing sectors include Industrials, up over 2%, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Financials, both up over 1%. The worst-performing sectors include Healthcare, down over 3%, followed by Information Technology, down over 1.5% and Utilities, down over 1%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Computershare Ltd, up over 20%, followed by Light and Wonder Inc., up over 8%, and ASX Limited, up over 6%.

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The worst-performing stocks include Insurance Australia Group, down over 11%, followed by CAR Group, down over 7% and AGL Energy, down over 6%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market? 

The All-Ordinaries Index surged to a record high of 8,839 points this week, fuelled by strong buyer momentum. However, the rally was met with selling pressure on Thursday; the index ultimately closed just shy of 0.5% higher.

This move came as no surprise, given the solid buying support from the previous week, especially in the face of a wave of uncertain news out of the U.S.

So, what’s next? Historically, the All-Ordinaries Index has delivered an annual return of around 9%. What’s intriguing is we’re already a third of the way there and the year is barely two months old. The speed of this market rally is impressive, but more importantly, it’s looking sustainable. Why?

Let’s examine the past three major rallies. Since November 2023, the All-Ordinaries has posted two solid moves up which garnered double-digit returns—averaging around 15%. The trajectory of the current rise, from the low on December 20, mirrors those previous moves, indicating a healthy pace.

What does this mean? The market isn’t overstretched yet, which suggests we could see a strong finish to the reporting season in March before any major pullbacks.

So, if you think you’ve missed out on the opportunities of 2025 so far – think again. The tide is rising, and there are opportunities across almost every sector right now. The Energy sector, in particular, looks like it’s ready to break out after being underappreciated throughout much of 2024.

Keep an eye on this one – it could be on the brink of a major upswing.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%.

He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

Disclaimers: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Can Australia profit from the US-China trade war or get caught in the crossfire? https://themarketonline.com.au/can-australia-profit-from-the-us-china-trade-war-or-get-caught-in-the-crossfire-2025-02-07/ Fri, 07 Feb 2025 01:42:11 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=738861 Is Australia ready to seize the spoils of a global trade war or risk getting caught in the crossfire? The ongoing tariff battle between the U.S. and China is reshaping the global economy, and Australia is right in the thick of it.

From energy and agriculture to mining and currency, stakes have never been higher.

China’s 15% on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports could be a jackpot for Australian exporters. As a leading supplier, Australia is well-positioned to fill the gap. Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS), one of the nation’s top LNG players, stands to gain big from surging Chinese demand – a potential revenue and market share bonanza, so keep a close eye on this stock.

The agricultural sector also spells opportunity. With Chinese tariffs targeting U.S. farm goods, Oz producers could see booming exports of beef, barley, and wine.

Elders Ltd (ASX:ELD) is primed to capitalise on this, thanks to its extensive agribusiness network and expertise. The share price also looks promising, recently finding support around the key historical stronghold level of $7.

But it’s not all good news. The mining sector may face stormy waters. Tariffs could drag down China’s economy, reducing its appetite for raw materials and hitting Australian giants like BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO).

Meanwhile, trade uncertainty is putting downward pressure on the Aussie dollar. A weaker currency makes exports more competitive but raises import costs, squeezing household budgets and stoking inflation in an environment that is seeking the opposite right now.

Therefore, the US-China trade tensions are a double-edged sword for Australia.

The question is: Can we turn chaos into opportunity, or will we be left counting the costs?

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week? 

The best-performing sectors include Materials and IT, both up over 1%, followed by Communication, up under 0.5%. The worst performers include Healthcare, down over 2%, followed by Staples and Utilities, both down over 1%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining, both up over 4%, followed by Iluka Resources, up over 3%.

The worst performers include Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and IDP Education, both down over 8%, followed by Orora Limited, down over 5%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

The All-Ordinaries Index rode a rollercoaster this week, kicking off with a dramatic selloff on Monday that wiped nearly 2% off the board.

The market was rattled by a fresh wave of trade tension as U.S. President Donald Trump placed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Investor sentiment nosedived, gripped by fears of prolonged uncertainty.

But just when it looked bleak, buyers swooped in mid-week, lifting the index back to near Monday’s opening levels. Despite closing yesterday with a modest loss of less than 0.05%, the uptrend remains intact – though buckle up for more twists as the United States-China trade drama unfolds.

Looking ahead, the Aussie index seems poised to break through to a new all-time high, with the 9,200 level firmly in sight heading towards Week 7.

Fuelling this potential surge is earnings season, now in full swing – a critical period when share prices often make their boldest moves. Stocks that crush expectations can soar, with gains that tend to hold.

On the other side of things, however, those that miss the mark risk steep declines, making strategic timing and solid research essential.

As we navigate shifting global trade dynamics and dissect earnings, the key will be targeting growth-ready stocks and resilient sectors to stay ahead of the game. These are exciting times—stay sharp, stay focused, and be ready to seize the next opportunity.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%.

He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

Disclaimers: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Is the RBA about to spark a market shake-up? https://themarketonline.com.au/is-the-rba-about-to-spark-a-market-shake-up-2025-01-31/ Fri, 31 Jan 2025 05:08:38 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=737769 Next month, the Reserve Bank of Australia faces one of its most critical interest rate decisions in recent history. With inflation cooling and major banks like Westpac, ANZ, and Commonwealth Bank predicting a rate cut, all eyes are on the RBA to see if this move will reignite growth.

A rate cut not only feels likely — it seems essential.

With inflation easing, the RBA has room to act decisively. Lower rates would make borrowing cheaper, stimulate spending, and potentially reignite economic growth—exactly what the economy needs right now.

The implications for the stock market, however, are complex. For example, bank stocks tend to thrive in a rising rate environment while struggling when rates decline. After thirteen consecutive rate hikes since May 2022, those same banks have emerged as some of the top performers on the ASX.

Therefore, a February rate cut could trigger a sell-off in bank stocks, but the outcome isn’t so black and white. Lower rates might actually boost financial stocks by driving economic activity and increasing credit demand.

The real winners, though, are likely to be the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors, which thrive on lower borrowing costs. Investors would do well to start exploring potential opportunities in these sectors, particularly for quality companies trading at discounted prices.

So, with inflation under control and the need to spur growth, the RBA has a rare chance to make a meaningful impact.

Therefore, if the RBA pulls the trigger, 2025 could mark the beginning of a new growth cycle for the Australian stock market.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Consumer Discretionary, up over 3%, followed by Healthcare, up over 2% and Communication Services, up over 1.5%. The worst-performing sectors include Real Estate, down over 1%, followed by Utilities and Energy, both down under 0.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Aristocrat Leisure, up over 7%, followed by SEEK Limited, up over 6%, and Flight Centre, up over 5%.

The worst performers include NEXTDC Limited, down over 7%, followed by Goodman Group and Lynas Rare Earths, both down over 5%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries Index surged over 1% this week, closing the week so far just shy of its all-time high of 8,771 points. With such strong buying momentum, a breakout to a new high seems inevitable.

What’s even more promising is the market has finally broken free from the sideways trend it has been stuck in since October 2024.

Adding to the excitement, the market historically rises for about four weeks before encountering selling pressure.

With only two weeks into a bullish wave following the recent low on the week ending January 17, continued momentum could push the Aussie index to the significant 9,000 level – marking a key milestone.

Fuelling this recent rally is the strength of major stocks, but there’s an interesting development gaining traction: The emergence of small-cap stocks.

The Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) has seen stronger buying activity than the All Ordinaries Index (XAO) since the recent low on January 17, climbing over 5% compared to the broader market’s 4%. This trend suggests increasing investor interest in smaller players, signalling market participation in the rally.

So, with momentum building in the smaller end of the market, it’s worth considering opportunities among emerging players that have a history of delivering staggering returns when they get going.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%.

He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

Disclaimers: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Star Entertainment: The gamble of a lifetime? https://themarketonline.com.au/star-entertainment-the-gamble-of-a-lifetime-2025-01-24/ Fri, 24 Jan 2025 02:30:00 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=735963 Is Star Entertainment (ASX:SGR) a bargain in disguise or a sinking ship? The embattled casino operator’s financial troubles have sent its share price tumbling, raising serious doubts about its future. But does the current situation reflect the timeless investment principle of buying when others are fearful?

After all, at these price levels, the only way is up, right? 

To answer that, let’s examine Star’s current challenges. Ballooning debt, declining revenue, and mounting regulatory fines are weighing heavily on the company.

On top of this, Star itself has warned of “material uncertainty” surrounding its viability.

In response, lenders brought in specialist advisory and restructuring firm McGrath Nicol to explore debt solutions — an unmistakable signal of how close the company is to the brink.

Despite the turmoil, some see opportunity. A recent 5.5% stake purchase by a once-mysterious Macau-based Chinese investor has sparked speculation. The key question now is whether this move represents a calculated bet on Star’s recovery or simply a short-term opportunistic play.

Meanwhile, Blackstone’s reported interest in acquiring Star’s Brisbane casino could offer much-needed financial relief by reducing debt. However, selling off such a valuable asset could hinder long-term growth prospects.  

For aspiring investors, Star’s situation embodies a classic high-risk, high-reward scenario. The company’s future hinges on successfully divesting assets to manage its debt while finding a sustainable path back to eventual profitability.

Turning to the chart, with the share price down over 95% from its all-time high, the outlook appears bleak. However, if the stock can hold above 10c and begin to climb, there may be short-term opportunities. That said, a key level to watch is 60c—a critical resistance point since September 2023. A break above this level could signal a long-term trend reversal and pave the way for a significant upward move.

Therefore, while a turnaround is possible, investors should be wary of short-term price spikes that can be tempting but often lack follow-through. Patience and discipline are crucial in navigating this part of the market so if you’re considering taking a punt on Star, prepare for a wild ride.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?  

The best-performing sectors include Information Technology, up over 3%, followed by Financials, up over 2%, and Industrials, up over half a percent. The worst-performing sectors include Materials and Energy, both down over 1%, followed by Consumer Staples, down over 0.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include HUB24 Limited (ASX:HUB), up over 15%, followed by Pro Medicus (ASX:PME), up over 8%, and JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH), up over 6%.

The worst-performing include Iluka (ASX:ILU), down over 14%, followed by Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC), down over 5%, and MinRes (ASX:MIN), down 4%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?  

The All Ordinaries Index climbed 1% this week, reflecting strong buyer dominance. A key focus was the 8,600 resistance level, which had previously discouraged buyers in early January. However, with the index closing above this level, buyers have made it clear the all-time high is now within reach.

This bullish outlook is driven in part by upcoming reporting, which typically brings a fresh wave of buying. Investors often position themselves early to maximise potential gains from dividends and franking credits available in March.

On the sector front, Financials and Technology delivered strong gains, while Energy and Materials took a breather after recent rallies. If Financials and Tech continue their momentum, and Energy and Materials regain strength, the market could be in for another solid week to close out January.

If that momentum rolls on, watch the 9,200 level where fresh selling pressure may emerge.

For now, the trend remains strong and stable, making it crucial to stay invested and avoid exiting positions too soon in what has so far been a promising start to 2025. 

For now, good luck and good trading. 

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

Disclaimers: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Looking ahead to a year of intriguing investment opportunities https://themarketonline.com.au/looking-ahead-to-a-year-of-intriguing-investment-opportunities-2025-01-17/ Fri, 17 Jan 2025 02:39:51 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=734723 After the ASX’s strong performance in 2024, optimism is building as we shift our focus to what 2025 has in store. The New Year brings renewed energy, exciting opportunities, and the promise of growth. But the big question is: will the market maintain its upward momentum, and which sectors will take the lead? Let’s explore the key trends and opportunities that could shape the year ahead.

The tech sector is still riding high, but 2025 calls for sharper focus. The days of broad rallies are over—this year, it’s all about picking the stars among the crowd. Many tech favourites have already hit lofty valuations, so the real opportunities lie in quality businesses with robust earnings growth and groundbreaking innovations. Not every tech name will shine in 2025; the winners will be those who redefine the game.

All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is expected to cut interest rates this year. While May is the most likely timing, there’s chatter about a potential February move. Two rate cuts could deliver a major boost, making borrowing cheaper, igniting the property market, and enhancing bank profitability. However, the RBA won’t move without clear signs of economic cooling—its cautious stance remains tethered to a strong labour market.

Resources and energy both potential stars

Global dynamics are driving a surge in demand for resources, and the materials sector is poised to benefit. India’s rapid growth, China’s stimulus measures, and Trump’s pro-industry policies are fuelling optimism. Yet, it’s not without risks—U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods like lithium batteries could weigh on Australian exports so keep a close watch on these macro factors as you navigate the sector.

After years as the market’s underdog, the energy sector could surprise us in 2025. The expansion of AI and other energy-intensive technologies is driving renewed demand for traditional sources like coal and gas, even as renewables continue to gain traction. Geopolitical factors, OPEC decisions, and shifts in U.S. energy policy will add to the intrigue, making energy the wildcard to watch this year.

With opportunities across sectors and plenty of excitement ahead, 2025 promises to be a year of transformation and growth. Stay sharp, stay informed, and get ready to make this year your best investing year yet!

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up just under three per cent, followed by Materials, up over two per cent and Real Estate, up over one and a half per cent. The worst-performing sectors include Information Technology, down over three per cent, followed by Healthcare, down over two per cent and Consumer Discretionary, down over one per cent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include James Hardie, up over eight per cent, followed by Evolution Mining and Telix Pharmaceuticals, both up over seven per cent. The worst-performing stocks include HUB24 Ltd, down over nine per cent, followed by WiseTech Global and Pro Medicus, both down over five per cent.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

This week, the All Ordinaries Index showcased resilience, with buyers stepping in on Thursday to erase early selling pressure, pushing the market up by just under half a per cent. In a week marked by a back-and-forth struggle, the index had dipped over 1 per cent by Wednesday before buyers rallied around the 8,400 level, lifting it back into positive territory.

The 8,400 level is particularly noteworthy, as it has been tested nine times on a weekly basis since mid-September. This consistent activity highlights strong buying interest at this level, suggesting that it serves as a significant support zone. However, it also points to the market finding comfort in this range, raising the possibility of a return to the sideways movement seen from September to November last year.

Despite this, the overarching trend remains bullish. The strong rebound from 8,400 has shifted focus to the 8,600 level. An earlier attempt to breach the 8,600 level last week was met with selling pressure, but if the index manages to break through on the next try, a test of the all-time high appears likely. Should that high be surpassed, the potential for the index to reach 9,000 points this year comes into play.

In fact, if the All Ordinaries continues its strong trajectory from 2024, a move to 9,200 could be entirely achievable based on historical averages. Of course, markets can be unpredictable, but as an investor, remember you’re not trading the index directly—you’re picking individual stocks.

Therefore, use the broader market’s momentum to your advantage, and always protect your positions with well-placed stop losses in case the tide turns.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au. 

Disclaimers: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.

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Dale Gillham’s weekly wrap: QBE surges despite ASIC action, how ASX’s 9,000 mark may be achieved https://themarketonline.com.au/dale-gillhams-weekly-wrap-qbe-surges-despite-asic-action-how-asxs-9000-mark-may-be-achieved-2024-12-13/ Fri, 13 Dec 2024 03:47:26 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=730487 QBE Insurance (ASX:QBE) has landed in the spotlight this week, not for its stellar performance but for a lawsuit filed by the ASIC.

The case alleges QBE misled half a million customers about pricing discounts on their insurance policies.

But in a twist few saw coming, the stock price surged 17% following the announcement on October 23. This is a stark contrast to the fate of other ASX-listed companies, like Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) and Telstra (ASX:TLS), where shares tumbled when hit with legal and regulatory challenges.

So, with investors seemingly quite undeterred, the question is: Could QBE actually be a golden opportunity for your portfolio now?

Operationally, QBE is firing on all cylinders. The company has been laser-focused on improving underwriting performance and minimising volatility, particularly in its North American division.

These efforts have paid off handsomely. In its FY24 half-year results, QBE posted a statutory net profit after tax of $802 million, doubling the $400 million reported the previous year.

The momentum didn’t stop there — Q3 FY24 gross written premiums climbed 2% year on year, reaffirming its full-year guidance of approximately 3% growth. From a fundamental perspective, QBE looks set to charge full steam ahead into 2025 with solid metrics and strong momentum.

Turning to the charts, QBE’s share price has been on an incredible run, skyrocketing over 30 per cent since September. Naturally, some profit-taking has emerged, and all eyes are now on the $18 support level, where buyers could step back in.

Legal battle looms

Yet, the looming question is how QBE will navigate its legal battle.

While the market has shrugged it off so far, the outcome could still influence sentiment.

Investors should closely monitor both the stock’s performance and the company’s financial results in the coming quarters.

With strong fundamentals and a resilient share price, QBE is shaping up to be an Australian stock worth watching as its story unfolds.

Best and worst-performing sectors this week

The best-performing sectors include Materials, up over one and a half per cent, followed by Consumer Staples, which was up under half a per cent. Consumer Discretionary fell more than half a percent.

The worst-performing sectors include Information Technology, down over 5%, followed by Financials, down over 2%, and Industrials, down more than 1.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), up more than six per cent, followed by Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) and Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC), both up over 4%. The worst-performing stocks included Ramsay Health care (ASX:RHC), down over 8%, followed by HUB24 Limited (ASX:HUB) and IDP Education Limited (ASX:IEL), both down over 7%.

What’s next for the Aus stock market?

This week, the All-Ordinaries Index faced more consolidation, with sellers maintaining control and pushing the index down more than a percent. But let’s not hit the panic button just yet.

History reminds us pullbacks are a natural part of sustained uptrends, often setting the stage for stronger comebacks. Look no further than the corrections we saw in April and October this year – only for the market to rally to fresh highs shortly afterwards.

With the index currently hovering around the 8,600 level – watch for potential buying to emerge, as this level is a critical zone that has repeatedly served as both support and resistance in the past. If 8,600 fails, then 8,300 points is the next likely target for buyer activity.

Now: About that elusive 9,000 mark – it’s not completely off the table for 2024, but December’s seasonal strength will need a serious boost. Retail sales data, coupled with ongoing Chinese stimulus talk, might provide the spark.

A renewed surge in Consumer Discretionary stocks and Materials could spill over into the Financial sector, creating a ripple effect that would drive the broader market higher.

Looking ahead to January

January often ushers in fresh optimism, and another strong rally in the New Year wouldn’t come as a surprise.

For now, this pullback presents a golden opportunity to refine your stock picks, capitalise on better entry points, and position yourself for the rally’s next phase.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

Disclaimers: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Dale Gillham’s weekly wrap: Bold moves in NZ, caution in Australia https://themarketonline.com.au/dale-gillhams-weekly-wrap-bold-moves-in-nz-caution-in-australia-2024-11-29/ Fri, 29 Nov 2024 04:24:01 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=727972 New Zealand’s Reserve Bank has taken a bold step, slashing rates by 50 basis points to 4.25% – its third cut in just four months. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia holds firm at 4.35%, its highest rate in over a decade.

This stark policy divergence highlights contrasting global economic realities and raises a critical question: Is the RBA too cautious, prioritising restraint over relief?

New Zealand’s rationale is straightforward. After two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the country is in a technical recession. Inflation has eased to within the central bank’s target, but weak economic activity demands decisive action. Governor Adrian Orr framed the cuts as essential for closing the “output gap” and jump-starting growth.

In contrast, Australia remains hesitant despite clear signs of household distress under the strain of high interest rates and soaring living costs. Inflation has cooled, to 2.1%, thanks in part to government subsidies on electricity and falling fuel costs.

However, the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation remains elevated at 3.5%, pointing to persistent underlying pressures. Rising rents, stubbornly high food prices, and stagnant wage growth are squeezing household budgets, particularly for younger mortgage holders.

Adding to the complexity, Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are expected to skew spending data. Australians are projected to spend $12.7 billion during the sales, but this isn’t a sign of economic resilience. Instead, it reflects financial strain, as consumers wait for discounts to afford essential purchases. As Greg Jericho from the Australia Institute aptly observes, “If we are not able to sustain spending unless there are sales, that is a sign the economy is pretty weak and households are struggling.”

By holding back, the RBA risks compounding the pain for Australian households already struggling under the weight of high rates and rising living costs. In stark contrast, New Zealand’s bold approach shows how decisive action can provide relief for households and mortgage holders, and stability for the retail sector in tough times.

So, the question remains: How long can the RBA afford to wait before relief becomes too little, too late?

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Health Care, up over 3%, followed by Real Estate and Information Technology, both up over 2%. The worst-performers include Energy, down over 3%, followed by Financials and Materials, both down under 0.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX 100 include Pro Medicus, up over 11%, followed by Lendlease, up over 6%, and Telix Pharmaceuticals, up over 5%.

The worst-performing stocks include Pilbara Minerals, down over 8%, followed by Paladin Energy, down over 5%, and Whitehaven Coal, down 4%.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

This week, the All Ordinaries Index maintained its upward momentum, with buyers driving the index up over half a per cent to test the critical 8,700 level. From a technical perspective, the market is following a classic uptrend pattern, where robust buying is met with healthy selling. This trajectory suggests the index could climb to the 8,800–8,900 range by year-end. While heavy selling pressure seems unlikely before December concludes, it’s always wise to stay prepared for any shifts.

If sellers do emerge, it’s essential to remain calm, as strong selling confirmation typically unfolds gradually. The key is to let profits run and avoid cutting them short prematurely. Until sellers establish a clear presence, riding healthy pullbacks can enhance returns. Should selling occur next week, look for support around the 8,500 level.

On the sector front, it’s impressive that the index posted a positive return despite its three strongest sectors – Materials, Energy, and Financials – closing in the red. A standout performer was the real estate sector, buoyed by rising expectations of lower interest rates next year. Known for its stability and yield, real estate has attracted significant investor interest. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary stocks enjoyed a holiday boost, with early festive spending benefiting retailers.

For traders, the ongoing sector rotation presents valuable opportunities. Timing your investments strategically is key to maximising growth.

For instance, the tech sector currently shows strong potential for short-term gains, while a medium to long-term approach in sectors like Energy and Materials may help you unlock their full upside potential.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Dale Gillham’s weekly wrap: Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger creates pharma powerhouse https://themarketonline.com.au/dale-gillhams-weekly-wrap-sigma-chemist-warehouse-merger-creates-pharma-powerhouse-2024-11-22/ Fri, 22 Nov 2024 05:20:29 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=726662 The $8.8 billion dollar merger between Sigma Healthcare and Chemist Warehouse is poised to reshape the Australian pharmacy landscape, consolidating power in the hands of two industry giants. But what does this mean for Australians – greater access to cheaper medicines or the loss of small, community-focused pharmacies? With Chemist Warehouse’s retail dominance and Sigma’s extensive distribution network, this deal creates a pharmaceutical powerhouse that may leave small businesses gasping for air.

Investors have cheered the move – Sigma’s stock surged 28 percent after the ACCC approved the merger with conditions. But the benefits to shareholders and consumers could come at a steep cost: The survival of small, independent pharmacies.

Chemist Warehouse’s model of lower prices and large-scale operations has already placed significant pressure on smaller competitors. This merger amplifies that pressure, particularly in regional areas where small pharmacies provide essential, personalised services.

For many of these businesses, competing against a combined Sigma-Chemist Warehouse behemoth may prove impossible.

The ACCC has attempted to strike a balance, implementing safeguards like allowing easier switching for pharmacies and limiting the use of customer data. While these measures aim to ensure fair competition, they may not be enough to counter the scale of the merged entity. Smaller pharmacies are unlikely to match the efficiencies and pricing power that come with such consolidation, leaving many vulnerable to being priced out of the market.

This dynamic reflects broader trends in Australian retail. Similar concerns arose during the Woolworths-Caltex partnership, where efficiency gains for the big players came at the expense of smaller service stations. The parallels suggest even with regulatory oversight, smaller businesses often bear the brunt of such mergers, unable to compete on an uneven playing field.

As the pharmacy sector moves toward consolidation, Australians must grapple with what they value most—lower prices and convenience from large-scale operations or the survival of local businesses that deliver personalised care.

If the Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger sets the stage for an industry dominated by a few massive players, it’s worth asking if such consolidation is a price Australians are willing to pay.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Utilities, up over two percent, followed by Energy and Information Technology; both up over one and a half percent. The worst-performing sectors include Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary, both down over half a percent, followed by Health Care, down under half a percent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Northern Star Resources and Technology One, both up over 10 percent, followed by Evolution Mining, up over eight percent.

The worst- performing stocks include Pilbara Minerals, down over 11 percent, followed by IDP Education and James Hardie, which are both down over five percent.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

This week saw buyers drive the All-Ordinaries Index to a fresh all-time high. However, the rally faltered as sellers regained control, casting doubt on its sustainability. Despite the back-and-forth, the market has so far closed the week with a modest gain of just under half a percent.

Interestingly, the last time the All Ords failed to close above a previous weekly peak was in August, which coincided with the steepest one-week decline of the year. If the index cannot close above 8,654 this week, it could signal another wave of selling next week. On the other hand, if sellers don’t materialise, a break above this week’s high could reignite the uptrend and pave the way for a strong finish to 2024.

Against this backdrop, sector performance revealed a more nuanced story. Financials and materials turned in subdued results, limiting the broader market’s upside. The materials sector, in particular, continues to lag financials, which has been the year’s standout performer. Yet, there’s a glimmer of hope in the energy sector, where early signs of a turnaround are emerging.

This week, the ASX 200 Energy Index (XEJ) tested its September 24 low – a promising development. If the index builds on this strength and breaks through the 9,600-point level, it could confirm a significant bottom was established in September. Such a move would signal the potential for a prolonged bull run, offering exciting opportunities for energy stocks known for their capacity to deliver rapid gains.

As for the broader All Ords Index, its resilience is evident, but further short-term growth hinges on breaking the 8,700-point resistance. A failure to clear this level could lead to a more substantial pullback, particularly after the extended uptrend over the past year. In such a scenario, support of around 8,300 points will be a critical level to monitor if selling pressure intensifies.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Trump Victory Sends Bitcoin Surging Above $75K – Is $100K Next? https://themarketonline.com.au/trump-victory-sends-bitcoin-surging-above-75k-is-100k-next-2024-11-08/ Fri, 08 Nov 2024 01:33:30 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=724464 Donald Trump’s recent election win has sent Bitcoin soaring past $75,000, marking a dramatic shift in political and market sentiment.

Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance—an exciting contrast to the previous administration’s cautious approach—has fuelled optimism across the crypto landscape. Many now see this as a pivotal moment for crypto growth, regulatory reform, and renewed investor confidence in digital assets.

With Bitcoin at record highs and momentum building, one question looms large: Is this the perfect moment to hop on Bitcoin’s ride to $100,000?

A more favourable environment for this currency?

Throughout his campaign, Trump actively championed Bitcoin, even proposing a ‘Bitcoin reserve’ to position the US as a global leader in crypto. His commitment to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler, often seen as a regulatory hurdle, signals a potentially more favourable environment for crypto innovation. This shift could attract traditional investors, allowing more capital to flow into digital assets with fewer barriers. Trump’s focus on strengthening US-based Bitcoin mining also hints at enhanced network stability and reduced dependence on foreign mining hubs.

Analysts see this Bitcoin rally as possibly just the beginning, with some forecasting it could breach $100,000. After consolidating and dipping to $49,202 in August, Bitcoin has since resumed its upward trend, breaking through prior consolidation highs and setting a new all-time high this week. Bitcoin’s next major test will likely be the $80,000 resistance, with a strong breakout above this level potentially pushing it closer to $100,000.

For those interested in crypto exposure without extreme volatility, the CRYP ETF on the ASX offers a diversified entry point. After falling 90 per cent from its IPO listing, the ETF has found support around $1.36 and is trending upward, with the next major resistance around $7. A break above this level could see a rise back up to the all-time high of around $12.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Information Technology, up four per cent, followed by Industrials, up over three per cent and Financials, up over two per cent. The worst-performing sectors include Real Estate, down over two per cent, followed by Materials and Consumer Staples, both down under half a per cent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Bluescope Steel and Computershare, both up over 11 per cent, followed by Worley Limited, up over nine per cent. The worst-performing stocks include A2 Milk, down over nine per cent, followed by Evolution Mining and Northern Star, both down over six per cent.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

This week, buyers returned with renewed energy, pushing the All Ordinaries Index up by over one per cent—a clear signal that the bull market remains strong. Reinforcing this trend, buyers have consistently stepped in since November 2023, limiting selling pressure to no more than two consecutive weeks before the market turns to trade back up.

While this election was primed to trigger wild price swings in price, we didn’t experience this. Instead, the S&P 500 surged by over two and a half per cent in a single day following the election, while the Australian market remained relatively steady. While the upside movement was modest, the positive takeaway is the lack of significant downside volatility, underscoring market confidence in the current uptrend.

The mining sector, in particular, has seen renewed buying interest. Following Donald Trump’s post-election remarks on continuing support for fossil fuels—referring to them as ‘liquid gold’—confidence in this sector has been reignited. This endorsement is welcome news for some of Australia’s largest miners, including BHP, Rio Tinto, South32, and Oz Minerals, all of which have a substantial US presence. This boost in sentiment provides the assurance these companies need to propel growth in the sector.

Moving forward, I expect the All Ordinaries Index to test the current all-time high of 8,654 points. If sellers reassert themselves and push the index below last week’s low of 8,323, it will be necessary to reassess the short-term direction over the coming weeks. Regardless of any short-term movement, with election uncertainties behind us and buyer momentum rising, now is the perfect time to take action and implement your investment plans.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au. 

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon.

Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

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Healthcare under the radar – for now… https://themarketonline.com.au/healthcare-under-the-radar-for-now-2024-11-01/ Fri, 01 Nov 2024 01:33:02 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=723432 Let’s start with a question: Which sector of the ASX is flying under the radar, yet may be full of potential?

If you said Healthcare, you’re on the right track.

However, with recent advancements in AI and robotics, Australia’s biotech sector is gaining significant momentum, making now the perfect time to explore the key players leading this charge.

Identifying the right companies at the right price can yield exponential returns, especially in a sector historically characterised by volatility.

But before diving into our top stock picks, let’s take a step back and examine the broader landscape to appreciate the real value potential at hand.

Australian biotech industry ranks 5th

Currently valued at $1.2 billion, Australia’s biotech industry ranks fifth worldwide in research and innovation.

It has experienced a steady annual growth rate of 2.4 per cent over the past five years, and analysts anticipate that demand for precision therapies, digital health solutions, and affordable medical advancements will continue to propel this growth.

This rapid expansion positions Australian biotech as an attractive investment opportunity for those eager to engage in a sector that is crucial for both global health and economic development.

Adding to the potential is the fact that Australia has already made a substantial impact on the global stage, with notable breakthroughs such as the bionic ear and the Gardasil cervical cancer vaccine.

However, bringing a biotech product to market is no small feat, often fraught with regulatory hurdles and lengthy development cycles that can span a decade or more.

This reality underscores the appeal of investing in established companies, which have navigated these challenges and built strong partnerships, robust networks, and the expertise necessary to overcome regulatory obstacles.

3 Australian biotech companies to watch

CSL (ASX:CSL) is the third-largest company on the ASX by market capitalisation—behind only CBA (ASX:CBA) and BHP Group (ASX:BHP) – it stands as a global leader in innovative therapies, with a focus on plasma-based products and vaccines.

Since 2020, CSL’s stock has fluctuated between $240 and $320. However, after bouncing back from $250 in October 2023, the share price has experienced its strongest upswing since March 2020, gaining 37 per cent.

While this growth is encouraging, significant resistance remains at $320, indicating that the stock must clear this level to establish a sustained long-term upward trend.

ResMed (ASX:RMD) is a pioneer in sleep apnea treatments and respiratory care, with a solid presence in digital health technologies.

After experiencing a sharp decline of 30 per cent from August 2023, ResMed rebounded, surging over 70 per cent by the end of October 2024.

This recovery reflects the company’s resilience, and as the stock nears its all-time high, a retest of this level looks to be on the horizon. A breakout above this peak might signal the beginning of a new long term bullish trend.

Sonic Healthcare (ASX:SHL) provides vital pathology, imaging, and clinical services globally. Following a steady decline since its 2021 peak, Sonic is now trading at a crucial level.

If it maintains support above $26, there’s potential for a rally toward $36, with a longer-term objective of reaching its all-time high. Conversely, a drop below $26 could prompt a retest of the $23 level.

Best & worst-performing sectors

The best-performing sectors for the week include Information Technology, up more than two per cent; followed by Consumer Discretionary, up over half a per cent; and, Materials, up under half per cent.

The worst-performing sectors include Consumer Staples, which are down five per cent; followed by Utilities, down three per cent; and, Energy, which has shed more than two per cent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), up over 15 per cent, followed by WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) and Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) which both gained more than five per cent.

The worst-performing stocks include Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) down over 16 per cent, followed by AGL Energy (ASX:AGL), down over nine percent and Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) which lost more than eight per cent.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

The All-Ordinaries index has dropped more than half a percent this week, marking a second consecutive week of selling pressure. As noted in my previous report, this decline was anticipated, and the 8,300-point level should be monitored for potential buyer support.

I also mentioned last week that November is likely to bring heightened volatility, especially with the US elections approaching.

Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision next week has already caused significant movement in various sectors, particularly the consumer staples sector.

Known for its stability, the consumer staples sector has seen a sharp decline of five percent this week.

Why such a drastic drop?

One contributing factor is that higher interest rates typically lead to increased borrowing costs, which can dampen consumer spending.

This trend is especially relevant for the consumer staples sector, which depends on consistent demand for essential goods.

Notably, on September 23, just before the last rate decision, the consumer staples sector plummeted nearly three percent in a single day. 

Now that we are just days away from the next RBA decision, we are witnessing another uncharacteristic decline in this sector, indicating that the market may be anticipating that the RBA won’t cut rates next week.

If this scenario unfolds, it may be wise to shift focus back to the banking sector, which tends to benefit from a higher interest rate environment.

Looking ahead to November, historical trends suggest that prices typically rise.

If this week represents the extent of sellers’ influence during what is usually their strongest month, we might be positioned for a significant rally as we approach the end of the calendar year.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%.

He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au. 

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon.

Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

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The winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone https://themarketonline.com.au/the-winners-losers-on-market-if-negative-gearing-were-gone-2024-09-27/ Fri, 27 Sep 2024 03:27:52 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=716698 Negative gearing has resurfaced in political discussions, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggesting that the Treasury might be reconsidering this long-standing property tax incentive.

However, Labor’s bruising loss in the 2019 election still lingers, making it difficult to envision the government taking the gamble of upsetting property investors—particularly with the current housing crisis that we’re in.

Politically, it seems like an improbable move. But since the topic is back on the table, let’s examine the potential market impact if they were bold enough to proceed.

What removing negative gearing means for the market

Removing negative gearing would likely cause a seismic shift in investor behaviour.

For years, Australians have viewed residential real estate as a wealth-building machine with a side bonus—tax minimisation.

If that advantage were taken away, many of those same investors might start eyeing the stock market as the next best vehicle to grow their wealth.

For starters, dividend-paying stocks would likely see a surge in interest.

Take away the tax perks of negative gearing, and suddenly income-producing stocks like Telstra (ASX: TLS) and APA Group (ASX: APA) become a prime alternative.

These companies provide consistent dividends and could become even more attractive as a steady source of passive income without the headaches of dealing with tenants or property maintenance.

On the flip side, stocks tied to the property sector, such as Mirvac (ASX: MGR) and Stockland (ASX: SGP), could face headwinds.

A drop in property investor activity would likely slow residential development, affecting these companies’ bottom line.

Yet, given the political risks, I don’t see Labor pushing for such a drastic change, meaning these stocks will likely continue to thrive.

Mirvac has been accumulating recently, following a strong uptrend from 2009. Any breaks above $2.40 could signal the next leg up, with targets of $4.00 in sight.

Stockland has also been performing well, breaking above $5 and eyeing its GFC high of $8.80.

What would this mean for margin lending?

And then there’s the broader question: If property lending takes a hit, what about margin lending on the stock market?

Negative gearing and margin lending aren’t worlds apart—both involve borrowing to invest, whether in property or equities.

A shift in property tax rules could open the door for further scrutiny of margin lending, potentially leading to adjustments there as well.

Ultimately, while Labor may flirt with the idea of ending negative gearing, the reality is that it’s a political gamble they likely won’t take.

If they did, the ripple effects across the housing and stock market would be immediate and significant. Investors are adaptable, and they won’t stay on the sidelines for long.

Best & worst performing sectors this week

The best-performing sectors include Materials – up over six per cent, followed by Energy and Information Technology – gaining more than one per cent.

The worst-performing sectors include Financials, down over three per cent, followed by Consumer Staples, down more than two per cent and Communication Services, down under half a per cent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN), up more than 21 per cent, followed by Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), up over 17 per cent and Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC), up some 16 per cent. The worst-performing stocks include Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), down more than seven per cent, followed by Coles Group (ASX:COL) and National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB), which are both down more than five per cent.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

A wave of buying on Thursday helped the All Ordinaries Index recover the losses earlier in the week, nudging it slightly higher.

While the short-term bullish sentiment remains strong after an impressive September rally, the real focus should be on the medium to long-term outlook—especially now that the market has officially entered ‘bull market territory’. Here’s why.

Enter the ‘bull market’

A bull market is typically marked by an index rising over 20 per cent from its low. With the All Ords surpassing a 20 per cent gain from its June 2022 low, we’ve officially entered this phase.

Beyond the textbook definition, there are other clear technical indicators:

Trading near all-time highs, check. Consistently making higher lows and highs, check.

So, what can we expect as this bull market unfolds?

Historically, when the All Ords has risen over 20 per cent from significant lows since 2009 (excluding the GFC and the COVID lows), the index has continued to climb on average another 17 per cent before facing sustained downturns lasting from three months to a year.

If history is any guide – and I see no reason why it shouldn’t be, particularly with the bullish environment provided by the upcoming US presidential election and major shifts in interest rate policy by China and the US—the market is likely to continue rising, with a peak expected around 9,200 points.

This suggests there is still plenty of upside, especially with sectors like Materials yet to gain momentum.

Energy and utilities are also lagging, so now is the time to look for opportunities in these sectors as market capital flow begins to rotate into them.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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Dale Gillham’s weekly wrap: US fracking support boosts outlook for Australian gas stocks https://themarketonline.com.au/dale-gillhams-weekly-wrap-is-the-traditional-energy-sector-the-place-to-invest-2024-09-13/ Fri, 13 Sep 2024 02:30:27 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=715092 The recent U.S. political debate saw both candidates firmly backing the continuation of fracking, a controversial method of fossil fuel extraction. This show of support despite the global shift to clean energy signals renewed confidence in traditional energy, raising the question: could this be the turning point Australia’s largest gas companies have been waiting for?

Before diving into the opportunities, it’s important to understand the relationship between the US and Australian energy sectors. Historically, they’ve been closely correlated, but that connection began to break in 2020.

Since then, the US energy sector has reached new all-time highs, while Australia’s energy sector remains nearly 60 per cent below its all-time high. However, with the US reaffirming its commitment to fossil fuels, and Australia’s tendency to follow the lead of its ‘big brother’, opportunities may be emerging for Australia’s largest energy players. Let’s take a closer look at three oil and gas companies worth watching.

Woodside Energy (WDS): As Australia’s largest independent oil and gas producer, Woodside is well-positioned to benefit from growing demand. The stock has dropped more than 40 per cent since November 2022, creating an intriguing opportunity for a potential rebound. Keep an eye on the $19 to $22 range, given this level has provided strong support back in 2020 and 2021.

Santos (STO): With a global diversified portfolio, including activity in the US, the renewed confidence in fossil fuels bodes well for the future of this company. Though the stock has been relatively flat post-COVID, it’s currently trading at a 60 per cent discount to its all-time high. A move above $8 would be a strong signal for further upside, and a rise past $9 could push the stock toward $13 in the medium to long term.

Viva Energy (VEA): As one of Australia’s largest downstream energy companies, the recent support for fracking could not have come at a better time. The stock has fallen around 30 per cent since April this year and is currently trading around $2.70. What’s exciting is that this level has provided huge support since 2022, so watch closely as a tick back upward could see the stock resume the long-term uptrend and reach $3.80 in the near term.

So, as the 2024 US election unfolds and political uncertainty fades, ASX-listed oil and gas stocks could follow the historical pattern of rallying, positioning these companies for significant gains in the coming months.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Real Estate, Utilities and Information Technology, all up over two per cent. The worst-performing sectors include Financials, down under half a per cent, followed by Industrials and Healthcare, up under half a per cent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Mineral Resources, up over 24 per cent, followed by Pilbara Minerals, up over 19 per cent, and Paladin Energy, up over 17 per cent. The worst-performing stocks include Steadfast Group, down over 11 per cent, followed by ALS Limited and NEXTDC Limited, down over three per cent.

What’s next for the Australian stock market?

With the All Ordinaries Index up almost one per cent this week, buyers have re-established their dominance and a notable trend has emerged. Since mid-August, the All Ords has pulled back to the previous all-time high of 8,168 points, set in early April, on three separate occasions, with buyer activity increasing each time.

The first pullback to 8,168 points came in the week ending August 23, when buyers pushed the market up by over half a per cent. The index revisited the 8,168-point level last week, with buyers once again stepping in, closing the week nearly one per cent higher. After briefly touching 8,168 this week, buyers drove the All Ords up by more than one and a half percent.

It’s evident that buyers are becoming more aggressive, and the 8,168-point level has now become a key support zone. This points to one likely scenario being a push to new all-time highs, which may surprise some as September is traditionally the most bearish month of the year. Consider what this unexpected resilience suggests: if the market is moving up during its weakest month, what does that tell us about current sentiment? And how could you adjust your strategy?

For me, the answer is simple. Now is not the time for caution. It’s time to be proactive—seeking opportunities and positioning yourself to benefit from the bullish momentum. Sitting on the sidelines could mean missing optimal entry points, forcing you to chase the market and make suboptimal trading decisions.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au

Disclaimer:While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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As Nvidia cools, we’re looking to Aussie AI https://themarketonline.com.au/as-nvidia-cools-were-looking-to-aussie-ai-2024-09-06/ Fri, 06 Sep 2024 02:43:26 +0000 https://themarketonline.com.au/?p=714354 NVIDIA’s remarkable rise on the US stock market has been nothing short of extraordinary.

Originally known for its dominance in gaming graphics, the company’s evolved into a major force in artificial intelligence and data processing.

From AI-powered research to autonomous vehicles, NVIDIA’s graphics processing units (GPUs) have become the foundation of AI and machine learning, cementing its place at the heart of the tech world.

This transformation has catapulted the company’s market valuation, making it one of the most valuable players globally.

However, after more than tripling in value over six months before reaching its peak in June, NVIDIA’s share price has started to cool, dropping more than 20 per cent.

For investors who feel they’ve missed Nvidia, the question is: Could there be an Australian equivalent primed for a similar meteoric rise?

While the ASX might not have a company of NVIDIA’s size, Australia’s technology sector is brimming with potential, particularly when it comes to AI, software, and high-performance computing. Here are three ASX Listed companies that we believe could be the next big thing in tech.

Weebit Nano (WBT)

WBT has positioned itself as a significant player in the tech world with its next-generation semiconductor memory technology.

As demand for AI and data-intensive applications grows, Weebit Nano’s innovative technology could see it rise to prominence, much like NVIDIA’s GPUs have done in graphics and AI processing.

While Weebit’s share price has experienced a significant decline since March 2023, it has fallen over 70 per cent to now be trading around the $2 mark.

The good news is that this is a strong support level that has historically served as a launching point for previous rallies. If price can stabilise and attract buying interest at this level, there’s potential for a rebound towards the $4.50 range.

BrainChip Holdings (BRN)

BRN is pioneering the development of neuromorphic computing, which mimics the human brain’s structure and function to process information.

This technology has the potential to revolutionise AI by making it faster and more energy efficient.

If this technology gains traction, BrainChip could be positioned as a global leader in next generation AI hardware.

BrainChip’s share price saw an impressive surge of over 200 per cent in February this year, only to retrace back to its starting level of around $0.15, which is a crucial support level for the stock, serving as a key threshold for investors.

If the price breaks below this support level, it may signal further declines. However, if price holds, we could see a significant rally.

Archer Materials (AXE)

AXE is pioneering developments in quantum computing with its 12CQ chip project.

This cutting-edge technology aims to revolutionise computing power and efficiency.

If successful, Archer could become a major player in the quantum computing field.

While this sounds exciting, the share price has been on a long-term downtrend since August 2021, losing over 90 per cent.

Eventually, the price will need to find a floor, and the $0.16 level appears to be a strong candidate.

Since this level is still about 30 per cent away, it may be wise to watch and wait for a potential rebound.

While Australia’s technology sector may still be in its early growth phase, companies like these demonstrate that the potential for a home grown tech giant is very real and very exciting.

As the world continues to embrace AI and advanced computing, these companies could very well be the ones to watch, offering investors a chance to get in on the ground floor of the next big tech wave.

Best & worst performing sectors this week

The best-performing sectors include Information Technology and Financials, both up over one per cent, followed by Real Estate, up just under one per cent.

The worst-performing sectors include Energy, down more than 6 per cent, followed by Materials, down over 5 per cent and Utilities, down some 3 per cent.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Charter Hall (ASX:CHC), up over 5 per cent, followed by Fisher and Paykel Healthcare (ASX:FPH), up more than 4 per cent, and Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR), up over 3 per cent. The worst-performing stocks include Minerals Resources (ASX:MIN), down more than 19 per cent, followed by Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS), down 13 per cent, and Fortescue (ASX:FMG), down 11 per cent.

What’s next for the ASX?

With the All Ordinaries Index dropping more than 1.5 per cent so far this week – with the fall occurring on Wednesday – investors might be questioning our market.

The past week has seen a change in sentiment given that the All Ordinaries Index had closed higher on 12 out of 15 trading days from August 5 to now only be closing higher on 3 of the last 7 trading days.

Given the strong run…

It’s not surprising the market is taking a breather

The question that remains is whether we will see a push from the buyers in the short term to break to a new all-time high.

If we see our market close high on Friday and erase some of this week’s losses, it’s very possible we will see a move up to challenge the all-time high of 8375.80 points set in August.

For that to occur, the Materials sector needs to turn around, and the Financial sector needs to remain strong.

I have mentioned many times that when Financials and Materials rise together, our market will be bullish, and there is no reason to suggest that if these two large sectors move, we will not see a break of the all-time high and a sustained bull market until November.

Again, regardless of the market’s broader direction, it’s essential to stay focused on individual stocks, as that is what you invest in.

It is also crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy rather than follow the herd. This means having rules for buying, selling and actively managing your trades.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au. 

Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon.

Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.

The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice.

Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.

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